College Football Playoff 2014-15: Odds and Projections for All 4 Teams
Bowl game season is upon us, which can only mean one thing: totally ignoring the non-consequential bowls to talk about the ones happening a week from now on New Year's Day.
The advent of the College Football Playoff doesn't detract from the regular bowls on the surface. After all, these are the same fourth-place MAC schools we saw last year duking it out under the BCS system, right? Nothing about the bowls changed other than one extra game that was tacked on to the end.
Still, it feels different. Instead of the harmless opening act to the feature performer, the minor bowls have become the guy at the party who won't stop playing his guitar over the music. They're there and can be mildly entertaining when you have a few hours to kill, but the stakes are so minimal it's hard to get invested. It's almost like watching a Pistons-Sixers game in late March.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
But thankfully for all of us, the appetizers should lead to a strong main course. Oregon and Alabama come in as significant favorites over Florida State and Ohio State, but there's reason to believe an upset could be had in both cases.
With that in mind, let's take a quick look at what to expect come 2015.
Sugar Bowl Preview
| Spread | -9 | +9 |
| Moneyline | -300 | +258 |
| National Champion | +100 | +865 |
Alabama is going to win. Just going to throw that out there right away. Under no circumstances can I reasonably expect Ohio State's third-string quarterback to overcome Alabama's defense when Nick Saban has had one month to study Urban Meyer's offense. The Big Ten's recent history also suggests we may be in store for a mismatch.
That said, it's unfair to characterize Ohio State (as some have) as roadkill waiting to be devoured. The Buckeyes won their last 11 games despite upheaval under center and elsewhere on the roster, and they devoured Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game to earn their playoff spot.
Cardale Jones looked just fine under center, and Ezekiel Elliott was so good you could have thrown a lawn chair at quarterback and still won. Ohio State did not get to January entirely by picking its way through the dregs of an overrated conference; this program is much closer to the exception to the Big Ten's rule than another also-ran.
Much of the Buckeyes' chances, though, come down to Jones. The former third-stringer saw J.T. Barrett pass him in camp and ascend to the point where it's practically impossible for Jones to expect playing time going forward. Barrett will return next season as a sophomore Heisman candidate, and Braxton Miller's future is totally up in the air.
Jones is filler for the time being, and that might actually be dangerous. While Saban will have hours upon hours of film on Meyer's offense, he has next to none on Jones. He'll be the complete wild card, with only 36 career passes to his name come Jan. 1. For someone as meticulously prepared as Saban—for someone who thrives on taking away the one thing opposing offenses do well—this is a big hurdle.
As for Jones himself, it's impossible to tell whether he's good, bad or somewhere between. He attempted only 17 passes against Wisconsin and was by his own admission a little erratic with his ball placement.
"Really, I think I played kind of OK," Jones told reporters. "A couple of the catches Devin (Smith) made and a couple of my throws were a little bit inaccurate. Devin made a couple of jump balls. It wasn't like the second touchdown where he just ran under it. He made all the plays. The guys around me made all the plays. My performance overall was OK, actually."
If Jones isn't a noticeable drop off from Barrett, Ohio State could pull an Oklahoma from last year and shock the world. If Jones has second-start jitters like Barrett, Ohio State will be embarrassed on a national stage.
For now, let's keep it right down the middle.
Score: Alabama 38, Ohio State 24
Rose Bowl Preview
| Spread | -8.5 | +8.5 |
| Moneyline | -300 | +258 |
| National Champion | +163 | +865 |
Oregon should win. The oddsmakers have them on almost the exact same plane as Alabama. There is no difference in the moneyline for either side and only a half-point separation when it comes to the spread. And you don't even have to look that closely at the number to see that, on aggregate, Oregon is the better team.
That said, I'm picking Florida State for reasons that aren't entirely logical and yet at the same time totally are.
Florida State is the only undefeated team in FBS. Marshall, which plays in a clown-car conference, couldn't keep itself upright for 13 straight games. Neither could Oregon or Ohio State or Alabama, all of which had more difficult opponents but nonetheless fell to teams with a combined 12 losses. That number is a bit inflated because Virginia Tech isn't good at football, but there is something to be said about actually giving credit for getting it done time after time.
Florida State should have lost to Clemson when Winston was suspended. Shouldn't have been able to battle back from down 24-7 against NC State. From down 21-0 against Louisville. The Seminoles got a fortuitous offensive pass-interference penalty that's almost never called to earn a win over Notre Dame. Their last four games have been decided by five points or fewer.
Over at Grantland, Bill Barnwell consistently cites one-possession game success as highly variant. The rule as a whole applies a little less in college football, where talent discrepancies are greater, but it's nonetheless instructive.
Florida State, logically, is not some magic team that wins every game like it's scripted by Jason Katims because they're a great football team. Florida State is a team whose close games expose deep flaws on both sides of the ball that has gotten lucky to win nearly half of its games.
This all (logically) pushes the edge toward Oregon, which eviscerated Arizona, Utah and Michigan State this season.
Nothing Florida State has done all season has been logical. It's a risk (OK, I'm really risking nothing but still), but I'm hitching my wagon to the Seminoles until they push me off.
Score: Florida State 42, Oregon 38
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.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
