Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons: Complete Week 17 Preview for Atlanta
The Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers play in a de facto NFC South championship game on Sunday. The Falcons are currently coming off of their biggest win of the season after beating the Saints in New Orleans by 16 points for their first sweep of New Orleans in almost a decade.
They will attempt to go for more history as they try to beat the streaking Carolina Panthers, who have won three straight games, including a win right after Cam Newton got into a huge car accident that left him with a back injury. Atlanta still has to neutralize the talented Panthers quarterback, as he was solid in their Week 16 game versus the Browns.
If the Falcons can come out with the same fire that they had against the New Orleans Saints, they could win their division and become the first team in NFL history to sweep their division but still finish with a 7-9 record and head to the playoffs after starting 2-6.
Atlanta Falcons Week 16 Recap
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The Falcons took control of the division with a 30-14 win over the New Orleans Saints that was a complete team effort. The offense was able to exploit the Saints' weaknesses and control the game effectively for the final 59 minutes.
Atlanta had its best game on defense this past week with five sacks, two fumbles recovered and two interceptions. If the defense can continue to create turnovers, winning against the Panthers and making a playoff run wouldn't be as surprising.
The big question for the Falcons offense from the Saints game comes from Julio Jones and his ability to play for future games due to a lingering hip injury. The stud receiver out of Alabama has been great for the Falcons this year and even set a franchise record in receiving yardage when he reached 1,428 yards against the Packers in Week 14.
With a healthy Julio, the Falcons can beat anyone. So, hopefully, he's ready to go. The Falcons did see some good things out of their young running backs with Steven Jackson going down. Jackson might not be able to play moving forward, but Devonta Freeman should be featured anyway.
News and Notes
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Mike Smith's Job Security Isn't Worrying Mike Smith
Atlanta Falcons head coach Mike Smith has earned plenty of criticism this season, to the point of fans and critics calling for his firing after the Falcons started 2-6. He also took heat when he squandered the game against the Cleveland Browns on Nov. 23 with his poor clock management. However, he isn't worried about keeping his job, according to an interview with ESPN.com's Vaughn McClure.
"I know that that's a subject that everybody wants to talk about and I said, I don't know four or five weeks ago -- I hope this is the last time that I have to answer it -- I'm going to prepare just like I've done for the seven years that I've been here," Smith said. "My focus is on winning football games and winning the next football game. And I'm going to continue to do that until Arthur Blank tells me differently.
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And if the Atlanta Falcons win four more games in a row, then there would be no question that Smith would be welcomed back to Flowery Branch in 2015 with open arms. Four wins in a row would put the Falcons into the Super Bowl for just the second time in franchise history.
But let's be realistic here. That's an uphill climb with three defensive starters on injured reserve and five offensive linemen joining them. If the Falcons can make the playoffs and win a game or two, Smith might have an argument to stick around next year. But the team will have to fight hard for him.
Matt Ryan Would Rather Keep Mike Smith in the Fold
Mike Smith is the only head coach that Matt Ryan has known in his pro career. Ryan would love to keep it that way. According to an interview with The Associated Press (h/t Savannah Morning News' George Henry), Ryan has been nothing but complementary of Smith.
"Smitty’s been awesome. I think he’s done a great job here. He’s, day in and day out, consistent with the guys. You know where you stand with him, which is a great quality as a coach. In this locker room, guys have a ton of respect for him.
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The way it sounds, Ryan is going to lead a charge to win as many games as possible for Smith. If the Falcons can continue on their positive streak, that should speak to Smith's ability to coach. There are definitely some things that need to be re-evaluated.
However, finishing the second half of the season 5-3 in the final eight games and winning a division title would be excellent accomplishments and boost Smith's chances of sticking around. A third division title and fifth playoff appearance in seven years would say that Smith is a guy who knows how to coach and should continue doing it. The only question is whether it's in Atlanta or somewhere else.
Youth Movement Is Finally Taking Place
Atlanta has needed to undergo a youth movement to reopen a window for a potential Super Bowl. Bleacher Report's Brett Sobleski noted that the Falcons got some great contributions from young players to beat the Saints this past week and that the youth movement is starting. In fact, he notes that it started with the 2013 group of draftees:
"Freeman, Hageman, Ishmael, Trufant, left tackle Jake Matthews, center James Stone, right tackle Ryan Schraeder, tight end Levine Toilolo, defensive end Malliciah Goodman and middle linebacker Paul Worrilow are all in their first or second year in the league. Each made significant contributions to the Falcons this season.
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That's not just one or two starters from two drafts; that's 10 players of the Falcons' current starting group or contributing group. The Falcons had a ton of bad contracts they needed to get out of after 2012, so growing pains were to be expected after they released some aging veterans.
With $23.8 million in projected 2015 cap space and another eight draft picks this coming offseason, Atlanta's talent level should only continue to increase as their age continues to decrease. Young, experienced players teaming together with a big-name veteran or two is a great mix for long-term success.
Injury Report
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| Pos | Name | Injury | Wed | Thu | Fri | Game Status |
| RB | Steven Jackson | Quadricep | DNP | DNP | LP | Questionable |
| WR | Julio Jones | Hip | DNP | DNP | LP | Questionable |
| WR | Roddy White | Ankle | DNP | LP | FP | Probable |
| WR | Harry Douglas | Foot | LP | LP | FP | Probable |
| OG | Jon Asamoah | Back | LP | LP | LP | Questionable |
| CB | Robert McClain | Illness | - | - | DNP | Questionable |
| CB | Josh Wilson | Hamstring | DNP | DNP | DNP | Questionable |
| K | Matt Bryant | Illness | DNP | FP | FP | Probable |
All injury statuses from the official Atlanta Falcons website.
DNP: Did Not Practice
LP: Limited Participation in Practice
FP: Full Participation in Practice
William Moore got placed on season-ending injured reserve after reinjuring the same shoulder that had him on injured reserve earlier in the season. The Falcons will go back to the combination of Dwight Lowery and Kemal Ishmael that's turned in six interceptions and forced three fumbles already this season.
Roddy White and Harry Douglas look like they are finally starting to get back to 100 percent, as they have been practicing more in recent weeks. Julio Jones practiced this week after not practicing for two straight weeks. He played well against the Saints and should be effective against the Panthers again this week if he plays.
Jon Asamoah also looks like he is getting healthy again. He missed his first game with the Falcons this past week with a back injury, but Gabe Carimi filled in well. It would be nice to get Asamoah back next to James Stone and Ryan Schraeder, though.
Just like his leg, Matt Bryant's stomach is indestructible. He's coming back from an illness that held him out of a practice, but it didn't shake him during the crucial matchup with the Saints. Robert McClain looks like he might have caught that same bug, though. Hopefully, he's healthy and can play against the Panthers, as the team needs him at his best due to the cornerback situation.
The biggest question on the entire report comes from Steven Jackson. Without him practicing all week, it would be shocking to see him play. The Falcons should rest him and see what they have in Devonta Freeman and Jacquizz Rodgers this week. Rodgers might get the start, but expect a lot of touches for the rookie out of Florida State.
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X-Factors and Matchups to Watch
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Falcons Pass Rush vs. Carolina's Offensive Line
Atlanta's pass rush has been one of the worst in the NFL. However, it had its best game against the New Orleans Saints, as it created a ton of pressure on Drew Brees with five sacks, two interceptions and two forced fumbles, all resulting from the pressure it created.
Carolina's offensive line has been resurgent the past three weeks. It has gone from one of the worst units in football to a solid, well-rounded unit that is starting to jell at the right time. Atlanta will have to continue its zone-blitz philosophy of last week if it wants to create pressure on Cam Newton.
Julio Jones vs. Josh Norman
In the first game the Falcons played the Panthers, Julio Jones didn't have the best game. Josh Norman and Thomas DeCoud continually bracketed the talented Falcons receiver to minimize his damage and force other players to beat them.
The strategy worked for the most part, as the Falcons scored just 19 points. However, in the five games since that first Carolina game, the Falcons have shown a willingness to attack teams with other options. By using Jones to stretch defenses out and occupy defenders as opposed to actually being the primary attacker, Atlanta could have more success as an offense. It just needs other players to step up.
Ryan Schraeder vs. Charles Johnson
After Lamar Holmes went down with injury, the Falcons needed someone to step up and play like a Pro Bowl-caliber right tackle to help stabilize the line. Ryan Schraeder did just that. He used his athleticism to allow just one sack, two hits and 10 hurries in his eight starts, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
His worst start, however, came against Charles Johnson and the Carolina Panthers when he allowed one sack, one hit and one hurry to the talented former Georgia Bulldog. Schraeder will be looking for redemption in this matchup, and should he get it, the Falcons could wind up dominating this game.
Falcons' X-Factor of the Week: Devonta Freeman
With Steven Jackson likely out this week due to a quadriceps injury, the Falcons need to bring in Devonta Freeman on some more snaps. Jacquizz Rodgers might get the official start, but the Falcons will likely ride with the hot hand. In this case, Freeman should be a great option, as he's an excellent receiver out of the backfield.
He's also been one of Atlanta's most effective and consistent running backs. As the Falcons decide to open up the offense more without having to worry about getting Jackson's touches in, Freeman looks like a dark horse to have a great game this week with added touches.
Prediction
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The Falcons defense has finally been stepping up and showing that it's been a competent group since the bye. Outside of the one game where the Green Bay Packers demolished the defense for 43 points, the unit has allowed an average of 15 points per game since the bye after taking out Matt Ryan's two pick-sixes.
That has a lot to do with the much-improved pass rush since the bye that has increased from seven sacks, 14 hits and 87 hurries in eight games to a rate of 15 sacks, 30 hits and 85 hurries over the past seven games. If Atlanta can continue to create pressure and turnovers, it should hold the Panthers to under 20.
The bigger question is how the offense does. With how the Falcons have been scoring points erratically since the bye, they still have averaged over 26 points per week. If they don't have any turnovers on offense, they should be able to beat the Panthers in a statement game that says they belong in the playoffs.
Prediction: Atlanta Falcons 24, Carolina Panthers 17
All stats used are from Pro Football Focus' Premium Stats (subscription required), ESPN.com, CFBStats or NFL.com. All combine and pro day info is courtesy of NFLDraftScout.com. All contract information is courtesy of Spotrac and Rotoworld.
Scott Carasik is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. He covers the Atlanta Falcons, college football, the NFL and the NFL draft. He also runs DraftFalcons.com.
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