Bold Predictions for Big Ten Football's Bowl Season
The Big Ten started the season rough—so rough that eulogies were written after Week 2—but finished with Ohio State University in the College Football Playoff and nine other teams in bowl games.
The league is still regarded as the worst of the Power Five conferences—and, to be honest, it probably is—but it has a chance to win some fans and reform some critics with a solid postseason.
The following bold predictions were made with an effort to avoid shock value. They are all things that could realistically happen, even though the odds are not strong. They aren't wild predictions.
Just bold ones.
Sound off below with your own bold predictions for the B1G.
All lines courtesy of Odds Shark, unless cited otherwise.
Leonte Carroo (Rutgers) Has over 200 Yards Receiving
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Opponent
North Carolina
Why it Will Happen
Leonte Carroo should have a nice game against North Carolina, which has one of the worst secondaries in college football.
The Tar Heels rank No. 125 (out of 128 FBS teams) with 28 passing plays of 30-plus yards allowed. Carroo ranks No. 6 in the country with 11 receptions of 30-plus yards.
Carroo has never reached 200 receiving yards in a game, but he did reach 100 yards seven times this season. And he never needed more than seven catches to get there. He is a big-play threat matched up with one of the most big-play amenable defenses in America.
And that is a favorable recipe.
Christian Hackenberg (Penn State) Throws for 250 Yards
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Opponent
Boston College
Why it Will Happen
At first, this may not sound like a "bold" prediction. But take a look at Christian Hackenberg's resume, and you'll see that it is.
Penn State's sophomore quarterback hasn't topped 250 yards since Sept. 13 at Rutgers. Only once during that stretch has he topped 220 yards, and only twice has he topped 200 flat. His average yardage output over his past nine games is a disturbing 169.3.
But Hackenberg saved his best for last in 2013, ending the season with a 339-yard, four-touchdown and zero-interception game at Wisconsin. And he should benefit from having a month to clear his mind.
"This season, for a lot of guys, including myself and Christian, is going to help him tremendously as he goes forward," offensive coordinator John Donovan told reporters at Pinstripe Bowl media day, according to Penn State's athletics website.
It might help him sooner than expected.
Nebraska and USC Combine for 550 Rushing Yards
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Why it Will Happen
Ameer Abdullah (Nebraska) and Javorius Allen (USC) are two of the 10 best running backs in college football, and they will both face a beatable opponent when they share the field in San Diego.
Neither run defense has been truly awful on the whole, but they both have looked truly awful in spots. Namely, USC allowed Boston College to rush for 421 yards in September, and Nebraska allowed Melvin Gordon to rush for 408 yards in three quarters in November.
USC's run defense has been better as of late, but that's fine because Nebraska has the better overall rush offense. Its offensive line ranks No. 12 in adjusted line yards, Football Outsiders' opponent-adjusted metric for run-blocking, and it can handle the USC front.
Five hundred fifty yards might be conservative.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Maryland Scores Zero Offensive Points
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Opponent
Stanford
Why it Will Happen
Maryland runs what can best be described as a five-yard offense. It doesn't look to challenge down the field. It runs the ball, then runs the ball, then throws some sort of tunnel screen and then runs the ball.
This works—to some extent—against teams the Terrapins can handle in the trenches. But Stanford is not one of those teams. A front seven led by defensive end Henry Anderson is peaking at the right time of the season. And the secondary isn't bad, either.
Stanford held Cal and UCLA to 27 points combined the final two weeks of the season. Those are two of the better offenses in college football. I'll leave the door open for a Will Likely punt return or something, but it's not hard to see the Cardinals shutting Maryland out. C.J. Brown does not have the arm to beat this defense.
Melvin Gordon (Wisconsin) Has 250 Rushing Yards
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Opponent
Auburn
Why it Will Happen
Gordon is the hardest player in the country to tackle (Todd Gurley excepted). Auburn's defense is allergic to tackling.
That sounds like a dangerous combination.
Also dangerous is the fact that Gordon is rushing for the record books. He needs 293 yards to pass Barry Sanders (Oklahoma State, 1988) for the most in a single season. And even though getting there is difficult to predict—even in a column about "bold" predictions—it's easy to see Gordon breaking a few long runs and coming close.
Kevin Smith (Central Florida, 2007) ranks second on the single-season rushing list with 2,567. Gordon already has 2,336. He needs 232 to pass Smith and move into second. I reckon he'll get there.
Minnesota Beats Missouri
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Why it Will Happen
Minnesota and Missouri are basically the same team: crummy offense, great defense and know how to stick around for 60 minutes.
If you played this game 100 times, I reckon each team would win 50. Maybe Missouri would win 51 or 52. The Tigers rank four spots better on the F/+ ratings (No. 31 to No. 35), according to Football Outsiders, but the difference is minimal. In most trials, the winner would be the team that has the ball last.
So why is Missouri a six-point favorite? Mostly because it plays in the "S-E-C, S-E-C, S-E-C." But the Tigers already lost to one Big Ten team this season, and that team, Indiana, went 1-7 in conference play.
Minnesota went 5-3.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
