Minnesota Vikings vs. Miami Dolphins: Complete Week 16 Preview for Miami
There are just two games left in the 2014 NFL season, and due to devastating losses in their last two games, the Miami Dolphins and their fans give out the vibe that the final two weeks are simply playing out the season until it comes to a merciful end.
The Dolphins are 7-7, and while not mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, the odds are against them, as it will require heaven and earth to move and shake for Miami to get into the dance, along with the obvious note of the Dolphins winning their final two games of the season.
That doesn't mean there isn't anything to play for in Miami though, as two straight wins would give Miami a one-victory improvement on last season and in the eyes of some, show "progress."
This will disappoint many Dolphins fans, but there's a good chance that if the Dolphins win their final two games, Joe Philbin will be on the sidelines for 2015.
The road to "showing progress" and a possible playoff berth with the right combination of other teams winning and losing begins Sunday against the 6-8 Minnesota Vikings (1:00p.m. FOX).
Here's our preview of Sunday's game.
Miami Dolphins Week 15 Recap
1 of 5Fighting for a playoff berth should inspire any team to give its best, regardless of whom it is playing and where.
This motivation didn't seem to be there for the Dolphins.
Did they quit in this game? I don't think so, but they did seem to get discouraged in the third quarter (Miami trailed, 14-13, at halftime), allowing the Patriots to score 23 unanswered points and helping Tom Brady build a new wing in the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton, Ohio.
One could say that Miami's defense did quit, at least it appeared that way. Their defensive line, so dominant in Week 1 against New England, couldn't get any push at the line of scrimmage or any pressure on Tom Brady.
The offense saw some sparks, some promise, some potential, but no second-half points. This was Ryan Tannehill's best afternoon in terms of yardage, and he made some of his best throws of the season throughout the game.
Sadly, it was all for naught.
News and Notes
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Dolphins 80 Percent Likely To Fire Philbin
Earlier this week, Bleacher Report's NFL Insider Jason Cole reported that the Dolphins were likely to fire Joe Philbin after the season.
In said video, Cole stated:
"Basically, what I have come to understand is, the Dolphins are about 80 percent of the way towards firing Joe Philbin. It is not finalized, but they are going through the idea of if they do this, what are the next steps? Who are the people they are going to interview? Where do they think they want to go? What are the best options? How do they handle it?
They're looking back at this season...even if they win their last two games and somehow go 9-7, that is not going to be enough, in all likelihood, to sway owner Stephen Ross.
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Cole would go on to name Jim Harbaugh as "the number one overwhelming candidate," followed by Seattle Seahawks defensive coordinator Dan Quinn and Indianapolis Colts offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton.
Outside of Harbaugh, those two names don't really excite the fanbase, although I can say that I like the idea of bringing in a more defensive-minded head coach alongside current offensive coordinator Bill Lazor (or possibly hiring Bears head coach Marc Trestman as offensive coordinator if he's let go) to help revamp a defense that has lost it's bite down the stretch of the season.
I'm not on the pro-Harbaugh boat as of right now, as acquiring him will likely mean sacrificing a first-round pick in one of the next two years (always a dumb decision since the team could use an infusion of talent).
Dolphins Players Currently in "Evaluation Mode"
One always asks what a team has to play for when their playoff chances are in that magical realm between slim and none.
The easiest answer is because they are being evaluated, both by their current team, as well as other NFL teams that could be interested in picking them up next season.
This is where the Dolphins are at right now, evaluation mode, and according to Chris Perkins of The Sun-Sentinel (subscription required), the players know this.
The players don't seem to mind this, and in fact expect every game to be an evaluation game, as cornerback Cortland Finnegan pointed out to Perkins. "I think [a team] is always in evaluation mode. Come on, now. This is the NFL. They've got a draft every year. It's always evaluation mode."
Head coach Joe Philbin (who is being evaluated much more harshly than any one player) begs to differ, as when he was asked if the Dolphins were in evaluation mode, his response: "zero."
That almost says everything you need to know about Joe Philbin in a nutshell. Finnegan's answer is closer to being correct, as players are evaluated week-to-week, at least one would think that's the case.
But the fact that Philbin doesn't see the team in evaluation mode might explain some questionable decisions he's made.
For instance, why Billy Turner hasn't been active all season and why he continues to trot out Dallas Thomas at right tackle.
Maybe if Philbin did a little bit more "evaluating," I wouldn't have led off this slide with the report from Jason Cole that I led off with, because there wouldn't be such a report out there.
Wake, Vernon in "Sack Drought"
This headline is pretty obvious based on Miami's last four games, in fact the "sack drought" that Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon are going through is a big reason why the Dolphins are 1-3 in that stretch.
The Miami Hearald's Armando Salguero reported on said drought on his "Dolphins in Depth" blog, however, the drought itself isn't as interesting as the denial seen in the comments from defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle about last Sunday's performance:
"This particular game I don’t think there was a lack of pass rush when you look. [Tom] Brady got hit legitimately at least six times where he was down. There were a number of other times where he was harassed and moving around in the pocket.
As you probably know, he’s only been sacked 18 times on the season. He doesn’t get sacked very much. He gets rid of the ball very quickly. When he’s in the shotgun, he catches it and throws it. It’s difficult to sack him. We’ve been the only team to get four sacks in the game against him and that was in the opener. He is hard to get to. I think we hit him, but obviously we didn’t get to him enough. We have to do a better job.
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There is exactly one thing I agree with that Coyle said: "We have to do a better job".
The rest of this seemed like excuse-making and buck-passing, especially when you consider that in the first game of the season, the Dolphins sacked Brady four times, compared to zero on Sunday.
What also doesn't help is the fact that Vernon only got to Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco once in Week 14, while Wake was kept quiet. Both players were also quiet against Denver.
I'm more disappointed in the defense than I am the offense this season, mainly because the defense fell off so quickly and easily. That's a reflection of their coordinator, a man who seemed so creative in Week 1 against the Patriots, then went so vanilla in their second meeting.
Injury Report
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| Player | Position | Injury | Game Status |
| Nate Garner | Guard | Illness | Out |
| Dallas Thomas | Tackle | Foot | Doubtful |
| Daniel Thomas | Running Back | Knee | Doubtful |
| Jonathan Freeny | Linebacker | Hamstring | Probable |
| Jelani Jenkins | Linebacker | Foot | Questionable |
| Koa Misi | Linebacker | Hamstring/Knee | Probable |
| Charles Clay | Tight End | Hamstring | Probable |
| Cortland Finnegan | Cornerback | Ankle | Probable |
| Don Jones | Safety | Shoulder | Questionable |
| Jamar Taylor | Cornerback | Shoulder | Questionable |
| Chris McCain | Linebacker | Ankle | Probable |
| Jordan Tripp | Linebacker | Foot | Probable |
Injury report courtesy of MiamiDolphins.com as of Dec. 18, 2014 and will be updated until game day.
The fact that Dallas Thomas is doubtful for Sunday's game gives hope to Dolphins fans, as he's been one of the worst performers on the team this season. This should provide Jason Fox and Billy Turner the opportunity to show what they can contribute.
What's even better news is the fact that Koa Misi and Jelani Jenkins will likely return to the lineup. Their presence was sorely missed last week against New England.
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X-Factor and Matchups to Watch
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Olivier Vernon vs. Matt Kalil
This game should be a good one to get Miami's struggling defensive line out of its current rut. (And if it can't do it this week, it's worse than I thought).
One matchup to watch is the struggling Olivier Vernon go up against left tackle Matt Kalil, Pro Football Focus' 77th-best left tackle of 2014 (subscription required).
Kalil's season protecting the Vikings quarterback's blind side is one that makes Jonathan Martin and Dallas Thomas look like first-ballot Pro Bowl players. He has graded out thus far at minus-29.4 overall, with a grade of minus-19.8 in pass protection.
This is a matchup Vernon should win quite handidly, especially when you see that Kalil has given up 12 sacks and 30 quarterback hurries this season.
Jarvis Landry vs. Xavier Rhodes
The Vikings have built up a pretty good defense, one that's ranked sixth against the pass. One reason for that is second-year player Xavier Rhodes, who this season has 42 tackles and an interception while being graded out at 3.9 on Pro Football Focus.
Rhodes will have the responsibility of covering Jarvis Landry in a matchup that you would've dreamed about watching had it happened between Florida State and LSU back in 2012. That matchup should be just as good in 2014 in the NFL, and it will go a long way in deciding Sunday's victor.
X-Factor: Lamar Miller
The Minnesota Vikings are ranked sixth against the pass, which I mentioned earlier but bears repeating.
They are also ranked 23rd against the run, allowing an average of 124.2 yards per game.
Most teams would use this information to say, "great, let's run the ball at least 20 times, use play action to set up our pass game, and try to beat this team on the ground."
This should be Miami's strategy on Sunday if it wants to win this game: Miller needs to get at least 20 carries out of the backfield, and Tannehill needs at least four.
We'll focus on Miller, though, who's running for an average of 4.7 yards per carry and is 171 yards away from breaking 1,000. It will take him 36 carries to reach that mark based on his average, and on Sunday, he should get at least two-thirds of that, due to Minnesota's weakness against the run as well as the fact that the Dolphins don't run the ball often, and the Vikings likely won't be as prepared to stop it.
Prediction
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This should be a Dolphins victory.
The Dolphins, in terms of talent, are a better team than the Vikings.
They have the better quarterback, better offensive line, and despite the Vikings showing a lot of promise on defense, I'd give the edge to Miami there too.
It should be a Dolphins win.
It won't be. I've seen this movie, and it's not simply a Dolphins-centric thing; it's something that happens in the NFL every season.
You have two teams with similar records playing each other at the end of the season. One team (in this case Miami) has seen a once-promising season go to waste due to a late swoon and needs the help of other teams in addition to winning out in order to reach the playoffs.
The other team is a young team that started off a bit slowly but fought hard in each of its games. The problem is bounces didn't go their way, and they were effectively bounced from playoff contention by Halloween yet played decent enough in November and December to salvage the season to a point and be the proverbial spoiler team that you didn't want to play because you knew you were in for a battle.
Miami played this role perfectly back in 2011, which helped to knock some teams out of contention down the stretch.
This season, Minnesota seems to fit that role, and fit it well they do. Add in a very good coaching staff and a rookie quarterback with promise and moxie, and this game will get very interesting.
Unless Miami can game-plan correctly and execute well, this looks like bad news for the Dolphins.
Vikings 23, Dolphins 17.
Statistics provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com and Pro Football Focus, which requires a subscription.
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