What to Expect from Geno Smith, New York Jets Offense in Week 16

After a rare but anticlimactic win against the Tennessee Titans, the New York Jets play their final home game against the New England Patriots in Week 16.

Prior to the matchup, head coach Rex Ryan revealed to reporters why he’s most competitive against Bill Belichick:

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As a competitor, you like facing the best, and that's what he is. Obviously, I like doing that just as any competitor would. It's no different. I obviously wish I had more success against him, but they do a tremendous job in all phases of the game. They're a really well-coached football team, and his assistant coaches are outstanding as well and they've been around a long time with him. Obviously, it's a huge challenge. To say that as a competitor, absolutely, I enjoy the preparation and the battles against him.

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Geno Smith also has a competitive track record against the Patriots.

Year/Week	Yards	Touchdowns	Interceptions	Game Result
2013 / Week 2	214	0	3	10-13 Loss
2013 / Week 7	233	1	1	30-27 Win
2014 / Week 7	226	1	0	25-27 Loss

Each of the last three games between these teams has been decided by three or fewer points, whether Smith has offered good, mediocre or horrible performances.

The Jets clearly take it to another level when stepping on the field with the team that has claimed the AFC East title in six consecutive seasons.

If this is Ryan’s final battle against Belichick, it’s going to take more than one last hurrah from Gang Green to upset the Patriots. Smith must put together a solid game without turning the ball over.

The Patriots have won nine of the last 10 games and were convincingly victorious over four division leaders within that span. The run started with this gem from Belichick at a press conference after an embarrassing loss to the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football:

New England has been rolling after Belichick’s stoic “we’re on to Cincinnati” sound bite. The focus was airtight and clear: The next opponent is the only concern.

The Jets' second-year quarterback has had two decent games since returning to the starting lineup in Week 13. This week’s opponent is much tougher than the previous two.

You’d think No. 7 is due for another decent game based on the track record between these two teams. However, the circumstances are much different leading up to this game.

Smith is heading into an offseason of uncertainty after being benched for almost four games. He's facing a high level of pressure in the final two games of the season to salvage a disastrous sophomore campaign.

Pro Football Focus (subscription required) indicates cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner have each surrendered just one touchdown in coverage in the last six games.

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

According to CBS New York, Percy Harvin will attempt to play through a severely sprained ankle this Sunday. Don’t expect much if he takes the field. Harvin played with the injury against the Tennessee Titans last week, as he was held without a catch, rushed for 10 yards on one attempt and returned one kick for 33 yards.

Belichick is impeccable at game-planning. He’s usually successful at neutralizing what an opponent does best on offense. In this particular case, the Jets' second-ranked rushing attack is the key to victory.

In the first contest, Gang Green bludgeoned New England with the rushing attack, accumulating 218 yards on the ground. After being pushed around by the Jets up front, the Patriots have tightened their interior defense, holding five of their last six opponents under 100 rushing yards.

Jim Rogash/Getty Images

Another key matchup to watch is Eric Decker vs. Darrelle Revis or Brandon Browner.

Decker has 13 receptions for 189 yards in the last two games. After shaking off an early hamstring injury, he’s starting to fulfill the expectations of a No. 1 receiver. He had a decent game against Revis in Week 7. He'll be Smith’s most reliable target on Sunday.

Tight end Jace Amaro has completely vanished in the second half of the season, partially due to a concussion. Jeremy Kerley has three catches for 19 yards in the last three contests.

As previously mentioned, Harvin is hobbled by an ankle injury.

Offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg’s group is limping to the finish line with a lot of fight, but the home finale against New England won’t end well.

Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia is working wonders with the defense, and the players are executing on an elite level.

The AFC East champions are still playing for home-field advantage in the playoffs, and that motivation will be enough to shut down a spirited but flawed Jets offense.

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Unless otherwise noted, advanced statistics provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com.