Rose Bowl 2015: Top Storylines to Watch in Oregon vs. FSU Semifinal
The 2015 Rose Bowl between the Oregon Ducks and the Florida State Seminoles is not the title game, but it sure feels like it.
Of course, this is what the College Football Playoff committee wants. Two juggernauts from different conferences with electric offenses and unpredictable defenses make for a good time.
So does Jameis Winston, last year's Heisman Trophy winner, versus Marcus Mariota, this year's Heisman Trophy winner.
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The complexities of the matchup—which could have just as easily been the final game of the season had the dominoes fallen differently—are bountiful. To help stem the tide and build anticipation, let's take a look at a few of the top storylines to watch this January.
Storylines to Watch
The Injury Bug
A defense that is going to stop Mariota, who has completed 68.3 percent of his passes for 3,783 yards and 38 touchdowns to two interceptions, needs to be 100 percent healthy.
Florida State is not.
Starting safety Tyler Hunter and tackle Eddie Goldman are battling injuries that have held them out of practice as of late. The latter would be a major loss for the Seminoles. Goldman is a potential first-round pick whenever he declares for the NFL thanks to his gap control and his ability to generate consistent pressure up the middle.
Still, coach Jimbo Fisher does not sound all that concerned about what ails two of his starters.
“We held them out, but they’ll be fine,” Fisher said, per Brendan Sonnone of the Orlando Sentinel. “If we had to play a game next Saturday, they would be able to play. But I’m making sure they are healed fully before we get them on the field so that it isn’t a nagging thing.”
As bad as that sounds, the situation is even worse for the defense that must keep Winston in check.
Oregon lost top corner Ifo Ekpre-Olomu to a season-ending knee injury, per Chantel Jennings of ESPN.com. The loss of a potential NFL first-round pick right before the biggest game of the season is a huge focal point of the contest.
Whichever team can overcome a battery of health issues puts itself at a major advantage.
Defense Matters
Injuries or not, the defensive matchup set to unfold at the Rose Bowl is strange.
Oregon ranks 29th in terms of scoring defense and often is labeled as too small to compete against a team such as Florida State. Yet the Ducks hail from the Pac-12, a conference infamous for spread-it-out attacks.
The Ducks have had encounters against teams just as big as and even more potent than Florida State. Look at the showdown against Michigan State back in September. Mariota and the offense did their thing with 46 points. The defense held the Spartans to 27 points, and quarterback Connor Cook threw a pair of touchdowns and interceptions.
Michigan State ranks seventh nationally in scoring, 22 spots higher than Florida State. Things change without Ekpre-Olomu, but the point stands.
The Florida State defense has had an uglier go of it this season. Narrow escapes against Oklahoma State (37-31), Notre Dame (31-27), Miami (30-26), Boston College (20-17), Florida (24-19) and Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship Game (37-35) can attest to that.
Quarterbacks who can make plays with their feet crush the Seminoles. Look at the showdown against Boston College, in which Eagles signal-caller Tyler Murphy threw for 73 yards and a score and ran for another 48 and a score while allowing his team to hold the ball for more than 33 minutes of play.
Keep in mind that Mariota might be at his best when on the move, as 669 yards and 14 scores showcase.
So while the spotlight is on both offenses, perhaps you should pay closer attention to how defenses unfamiliar with the opposition pan out this January.
Jameis Winston's Turnovers
Observers know the story by now.
Winston is down in a big way in a statistical sense compared to last year. His 3,559 yards and 24 touchdowns are great, but he has thrown 17 interceptions and has put up some downright woeful performances in the first half of games.
In fact, only four of Winston's 17 picks this year have come in the second half of games. Whether he just needs to settle down or it is some other factor, a slow start will not cut it against an offense as potent as the one Oregon brings to the Rose Bowl.
Fisher and his staff have made changes in an effort to help the run game and take pressure off Winston, though. Left tackle Cam Erving now plays center, which ESPN.com's Jared Shanker says helped spark a turnaround for all involved as of late:
"With this new starting five, Florida State might as well be Wisconsin South. Both Florida State and Wisconsin, whose offensive line’s girth is annually celebrated, have a starting five that averages 6-foot-5 along the line. The Seminoles’ combined weight across the group is actually greater than Wisconsin’s, and Florida State still has athleticism along the unit, too.
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Winston catches a break due to Oregon’s health issues in the secondary. Whether he comes out and takes care of the football may decide the contest.
If Winston throws the ball to his opponents, it really does not matter who the defenders are. If a few turnovers lead to a full-blown shootout, he may make even more mistakes on the way to a Seminoles loss.
Stats and information via ESPN.com unless otherwise specified.
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