Indianapolis Colts vs. Dallas Cowboys: Complete Week 16 Preview for Dallas
The Dallas Cowboys (10-4) will go to battle with the Indianapolis Colts (10-4) Sunday at AT&T Stadium. The Cowboys have a one-game lead in the NFC East and it is paramount that they maintain that lead with a win on Sunday.
The Cowboys are coming off a huge 38-27 win against the Philadelphia Eagles in which they showed a ton of resilience. The Cowboys moved their road record to 7-0 and further cemented themselves as one of the best road teams in the NFL.
The Colts got a hard-fought win over J.J. Watt and the Houston Texans last week in a game that clinched the AFC South division for them.
The Colts are fighting for a better seed and the Cowboys are fighting to make it into the playoffs; therefore, both teams will likely put everything they have into winning.
This game pits two elite offenses and average defenses against each other in a matchup that will undoubtedly be extremely entertaining.
Read on for some news and notes, injury information and players to watch on Sunday.
Cowboys' Week 15 Recap
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The Dallas Cowboys (10-4) desperately needed a win against their division rival, and that's exactly what they got as they beat the Philadelphia Eagles 38-27 to improve their road record to 7-0.
The Cowboys had trouble establishing an effective running game, but Dez Bryant more than made up for it as he helped carry the offense to 38 points and the victory. The offensive line did a much better job against the Eagles front seven than it did in the first meeting, and it showed, as Romo had an easier time finding his targets throughout the game.
The Cowboys defense had some rough patches, but the unit tightened up late to ice the game. Jeremy Mincey, J.J. Wilcox and Bruce Carter made some huge plays to ice the game for Dallas late.
The team got some crucial turnovers to stop the Eagles' momentum in the third quarter, and the Cowboys took full advantage.
Now, the Cowboys look forward to another crucial game against Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts.
News and Notes
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Wilcox Showing Improvement
J.J. Wilcox has been one of the weak points of the defense for most of the year, but he is starting to show some improvement to validate the Cowboys' selection of him in the 2013 NFL draft.
Head coach Jason Garrett was impressed by Wilcox's play and knows his best is still ahead of him, per ESPN Dallas' Jean-Jacques Taylor:
"I thought he tackled really well and was very active. He’s one of those guys that’s getting better and better every game he plays. It’s important to him. He really cares about it.
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I think he watches guys on our football team to see how they conduct themselves. He’s continuing to mature as a player and I think we’ve seen evidence of that during the season.
Wilcox is a player who has a great deal of athletic ability and almost endless potential, but he had yet to give an indication that he was going to start tapping into his immense potential. It was just one game, but Wilcox looked much improved against the explosive Eagles offense.
If Wilcox plays like he did against the Eagles, then the Cowboys won't have to worry about the safety position for a long time.
DeMarco Murray Injures Hand against Philadelphia
DeMarco Murray broke the fourth metacarpal in his left against the Eagles, per ESPN Dallas' Todd Archer. Murray has been extremely productive and has been the lifeblood of the offense throughout the season.
Murray gets all the hard yards and reliably does his job in every facet of the game. He rarely comes off the field and allows the Cowboys offense to run at its optimal level when he is in the game. Teams have to respect the run, which opens up opportunities in the passing game for the Cowboys.
If Murray is out, the Colts will likely play coverage more often, which will make it harder for the Cowboys to pass and put a ton of pressure on the backup running backs to take advantage.
Running Back By Committee if Murray is Out?
If Murray is out against the Colts, the Cowboys will likely use a running back by committee approach, per Archer. However, the Cowboys have a lot of confidence in Lance Dunbar and Joseph Randle:
"We have a role for those guys each week. Lance has done a number of different things for us on third down as a receiver, split out. He's just a really good football player. We also have confidence handing him the football. Joseph has been a guy that we've brought into games just to give him the ball and he's done a real nice job with that. I have a lot of confidence in both of those guys.
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Randle has been a great complementary running back this season in the few touches he has gotten, but that doesn't mean he will have the same effectiveness with an increased workload.
Lance Dunbar has been primarily a third-down running back who is utilized in the screen game a great deal.
The good news is the Cowboys have one of the top two offensive lines in football and will still open up the same holes regardless of who is playing running back.
Injury Report
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| Josh Brent (calf) | DT | Doubtful |
| Tony Romo (back) | QB | Probable |
| Tyler Patmon (knee/ankle) | CB | Probable |
| Rolando McClain (knee) | LB | Probable |
| Zack Martin (ankle) | OG | Questionable |
| Jeff Heath (thumb) | SS | Probable |
| Dekoda Watson (hamstring) | LB | Doubtful |
| George Selvie (thumb) | DE | Probable |
| Doug Free (ankle) | OT | Questionable |
| DeMarco Murray (hand) | RB | Questionable |
All injury information comes from the Cowboys' official team website.
There are three significant injuries on the list this week.
First, Doug Free would be sorely missed if his ankle injury keeps him out of this crucial game. If he misses the game, he will likely be replaced by Jermey Parnell, who doesn't get the same type of push in the running game and is not as technically sound as Free in pass protection.
Next, Zack Martin has been the best offensive lineman throughout the season; therefore, it would be a monumental loss if he doesn't play. He would be replaced by Mackenzy Bernadeau, who is serviceable but nowhere near as effective as Martin.
Lastly, DeMarco Murray has been one of the best running backs in the NFL this year, which would make his absense extremely significant. This injury becomes much more significant if Free or Martin don't play, as the Cowboys will need a running back who can get the tough yards, which Murray does well.
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X-Factor and Matchups to Watch
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Orlando Scandrick vs. T.Y Hilton
One of Andrew Luck's favorite targets is wide receiver T.Y. Hilton, a small, extremely quick and agile wide receiver. The Cowboys will likely match up Orlando Scandrick with Hilton, as he is the cornerback who can match the short-area explosion and speed of Hilton.
Thus far this season, Scandrick has had his best year as a cornerback. He is becoming a leader on the defense and is truly coming into his own as a professional.
Scandrick has incredible foot quickness, hip fluidity and football intelligence, which allows him to play well in zone or man coverage. He rarely makes mistakes and opposing receivers have to fight for every reception.
He is one of the few players who matches up well with small, quick receivers. However, Scandrick's effectiveness is not limited to just small receivers, as he has done a great job against receivers across the physical and athletic spectrum.
For Scandrick to limit Hilton, he will have to be flawless with his footwork. If he slips or takes any false steps, Hilton will make him pay in a bad way.
All in all, Scandrick should be able to do a good job limiting Hilton, as he has the type of skill set that Hilton struggles to beat.
Dez Bryant vs. Vontae Davis
Dez Bryant had one of the best games of his career against the Eagles' subpar secondary last week; however, he will have a much tougher task this week against Vontae Davis.
Davis has grown into one of the best cornerback in the league this season, as he has become a true technician with the Colts. Davis is ranked No. 3 overall in the NFL among cornerbacks, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
For Bryant to put together another noteworthy game, he will have to get clean releases against Davis' press coverage. When Davis gets his hands on receivers, there is little chance the receiver is getting open. He's too quick and strong for a receiver to get upfield in time if they do not get a clean release.
Expect the Cowboys to move Bryant around and manufacture situations where he can get a clean release and utilize his big frame to box out Davis.
This matchup will be a battle all day as each player will have good and bad moments throughout the game.
X-Factor of the Week: Defensive Line
Andrew Luck is one the best quarterbacks in the NFL and is nearly impossible to stop if he has enough time in the pocket to go through his progressions, set his feet and make throws. The only chance the Cowboys have to limit Luck's effectiveness is to get consistent pressure on him.
Jeremy Mincey did a great job of generating pressure against Mark Sanchez last week, and the Cowboys will need a similar performance against the Colts.
Tyrone Crawford has been the best defensive lineman and one of the most underrated under tackles (3-technique defensive tackle) in the NFL. The Cowboys will need him to take full advantage of the Colts' patchwork interior offensive line.
Anthony Spencer needs to take advantage of his matchup against Gosder Cherilus, who has had a disappointing year thus far.
If the Cowboys can also get contributions from DeMarcus Lawrence and Henry Melton, that would be extremely beneficial as well, even though both players have had their struggles in recent weeks.
The defense will need to at least slow down Luck for the Cowboys to win, and it will be on the defensive line to accomplish that goal.
Prediction
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The Dallas Cowboys and Indianapolis Colts are very similarly structured teams, as they both have extremely potent offenses with below-average defenses.
This game will come down to which defense does a better job of containing the other's explosive offense. The Cowboys offense is much more well-rounded, as they have a dominant running game and efficient passing game, while the Colts rely much more heavily on their passing attack to generate yards and points.
On defense, the Colts have a subpar front seven but boast one of the better secondaries in the league. On the other hand, the Cowboys are just average at every level of the defense with at least one standout player in each unit.
It appears as though the Cowboys' strengths matchup well with the Colts' weakness, as their offense should be able to control the clock and run the ball effectively regardless of who the running back is. If the Cowboys can slow down Andrew Luck even a little bit, it should be enough for them to get the win.
Overall, the Cowboys offense should have a banner day and the defense should be able to do just enough to limit the Colts offense as Dallas wins in a high-scoring affair.
Prediction: Cowboys 35, Colts 31
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