College Football Playoff 2014-15: Stat Projections for Top Players in Semifinals
Heisman winner Marcus Mariota and a host of college football's top stars take center stage at the inaugural College Football Playoff this January.
One semifinal matchup features the last two Heisman winners, as the surging Oregon Ducks collide with the still-undefeated Florida State Seminoles and polarizing quarterback Jameis Winston.
The Sugar Bowl boasts the powerhouse Alabama Crimson Tide and Heisman finalist Amari Cooper. Nick Saban meets old foe Urban Meyer and an Ohio State Buckeyes team that has experienced arguably the most adversity of the four.
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No bigger stage now exists for these players, many of whom are set to move on to other pastures, including the NFL. A peek into the past might reveal how each of the biggest names will rise to the occasion.
Rose Bowl
Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
There is little doubt Mariota will shine against the Seminoles.
Just how bright is the question in need of an answer.
Mariota threw for 3,783 yards and 38 touchdowns to two interceptions with another 669 yards and 14 scores on the ground. The result was one of the biggest Heisman victories in history, as ESPN Stats & Info captures:
It is hard to quantify just how great Mariota performed this season, which goes twofold for what he can do against the Seminoles.
The Honolulu native threw for at least three touchdowns seven times this season and stepped up in some of the biggest games of the year. He posted three total scores against Michigan State, four against Stanford, six against Oregon State and five against Arizona in the Pac-12 Championship.
Now add in the fact the Seminoles rank 30th in terms of points allowed per game. A strong rush will get Mariota out of the pocket, but he is comfortable on the run after his offensive line suffered plenty of injuries this season.
Translation—the Seminoles will be unable to slow Mariota.
Prediction: 360 Pass. Yds., 4 TD, 1 INT, 65 Rush Yds., 1 TD
Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
Little separates Winston and Mariota this year, but what does is crucial.
Winston is the owner of 3,559 yards and 24 scores, but his 17 interceptions stick out in a sore manner. The Bessemer, Alabama, native posted five multi-interception games this season, although the Seminoles never lost.
Late-game heroics took center stage for the Seminoles this year, the main instigator usually being the man under center. Up-and-down numbers or not, the Ducks seem to believe their experiences against the air-raid offenses of the Pac-12 have them in a good position against last year's Heisman winner.
"I think playing in the Pac-12 helps you playing against a guy like Jameis," cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu said, per Tyson Alger of OregonLive.com. "You have to go in and out through great quarterbacks that make great plays. They don't turn the ball over very much."
The problems are twofold, though.
One, few quarterbacks bring what Winston does on each snap. Two, Ekpre-Olomu—by far Oregon's best defender—was lost for the season after injuring his knee in practice, per ESPN.com's Chantel Jennings.
Winston will have a big game, win or lose. Just watch for the majority of the flashy numbers to come in the second half.
Prediction: 275 Pass. Yds., 3 TD, 2 INT
Sugar Bowl
Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
An Ohio State defense that allows 21.2 points per game on average will in no way slow Cooper.
Cooper not only led the Crimson Tide in receiving this year, but he also just about did it on his own. That is only a slight exaggeration, too. The Heisman finalist caught 115 passes for 1,656 yards and 14 touchdowns. Alabama as a whole caught 268 for 3,653 and 30, with the next closest receiver on the list being DeAndrew White—who caught 37 balls for 439 yards and four scores.
SEC Network puts things into perspective:
It should go without saying that the man shows up in big games.
He roasted Mississippi State with eight catches for 88 yards and a score. The Iron Bowl against Auburn was his Heisman moment with 13 grabs for 224 yards and three scores. Missouri never stood a chance in the SEC Championship, thanks in part to his 12 catches and 83 yards.
The point is, Cooper might just shine the brightest of all big names in the semifinals. Ohio State is physical in the secondary, but so is most of the SEC.
Prediction: 9 Rec., 145 Yds., 2 TD
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State
With Braxton Miller and J.T. Barrett out of the frame, there is just not a big enough sample size to throw Ohio State sophomore quarterback Cardale Jones to the fire.
Sure, Jones was strong in the Big Ten Championship against Wisconsin with 257 yards and three scores, but who wasn't? Wisconsin could have stayed on the buses and put up a better fight in the 59-0 loss.
Sophomore running back Ezekiel Elliott makes the offense churn. Elliott ran away with the starting gig this year on his way to 1,402 yards and 12 touchdowns on a 6.5 yards-per-carry average. He not only ran for 220 yards and a pair of scores against Wisconsin, but he also breached the 100-yard mark seven times this year and scored in nine games.
Feel free to make that eight and 10, respectively.
Elliott is perhaps the most talented back the Crimson Tide will have faced this year, the lone exception being LSU's Leonard Fournette.
Observers cannot know if Elliott's effort will be enough to win, but they can at least bank on a major showing from one of the nation's best backs.
Prediction: 25 Rush, 145 Yds., 1 TD
Stats and information via ESPN.com unless otherwise specified.
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