Why the Pac-12 Will Dominate 2014-15 Bowl Season
The Pac-12 has four fewer bowl teams than the SEC, three fewer than the ACC and two fewer than the Big Ten—but bowl season has more to do with quality than quantity.
Even with just eight qualified teams, the Pac-12 has the best chance of any conference to dominate the season's final month.
This is true despite a regular season in which the league failed to meet expectations. It played well—very well—but didn't make the quantum leap some predicted. Ted Robinson of Bleacher Report was one of many experts who thought the Pac-12 would challenge and/or eclipse the SEC and turn into the alpha-dog conference.
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It didn't.
Reigning conference champion Stanford took a big step back and finished 7-5. Preseason darling UCLA looked uninspired en route to 9-3. Chris Petersen struggled to get his offense off the ground at Washington, Steve Sarkisian lost some winnable games (shocker!) at USC, and Washington State and Oregon State fell off cliffs despite returning senior quarterbacks from bowl teams.
But the season ain't over 'til it's over. There are still eight or nine Pac-12 games left to play. The schedule shapes up well, and one has to think the league that gave us #Pac12AfterDark understands how to save its best for last.
The Pac-12 is ready for its closeup.
Only this time…it really means it.
According to the F/+ ratings at Football Outsiders, the Pac-12 has the better team in six of its eight bowl matchups. And the only two teams rated worse than their opponents—Arizona (vs. Boise State) and Utah (vs. Colorado State)—are very slight F/+ underdogs.
Here is how the full F/+ matchups break down:
| Stanford | 16.9% | Maryland | 6.3% | +10.6% |
| Oregon | 35.6% | Florida State | 27.5% | +8.1% |
| Washington | 5.0% | Oklahoma State | -2.8% | +7.8% |
| Arizona State | 15.7% | Duke | 13.7% | +2.0% |
| USC | 16.9% | Nebraska | 15.1% | +1.8% |
| UCLA | 18.8% | Kansas State | 17.5% | +1.3% |
| Arizona | 12.7% | Boise State | 15.9% | -3.2% |
| Utah | 10.2% | Colorado State | 13.5% | -3.3% |
| AVERAGE: | +3.14% |
The Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC all have the lower F/+ rating in the majority of their bowl games, which cripples their case to be the best conference this postseason. But compare the table above with the corresponding breakdown from the SEC:
| Arkansas | 18.6% | Texas | 3.0% | +15.6% |
| LSU | 19.4% | Notre Dame | 11.0% | +8.4% |
| Georgia | 27.6% | Louisville | 19.9% | +7.7% |
| Florida | 9.3% | East Carolina | 2.7% | +6.6% |
| Tennessee | 7.5% | Iowa | 3.4% | +4.1% |
| Auburn | 23.5% | Wisconsin | 19.8% | +3.7% |
| Mississippi State | 27.8% | Georgia Tech | 25.8% | +2.0% |
| Alabama | 38.4% | Ohio State | 36.5% | +1.9% |
| Missouri | 13.2% | Minnesota | 12.1% | +1.1% |
| Ole Miss | 29.3% | TCU | 28.7% | +0.6% |
| Texas A&M | 3.8% | West Virginia | 12.6% | -8.8% |
| South Carolina | 3.0% | Miami | 16.2% | -13.2% |
| AVERAGE: | +2.48% |
The SEC has 33 percent more bowl teams (12) and a higher percentage of F/+ favorites (83.3) than the Pac-12, but Texas A&M and South Carolina weigh the conference down.
The Gamecocks (vs. Miami) are the second-biggest F/+ underdog from a power conference, trailing only Texas (vs. Arkansas). The Aggies (vs. West Virginia) are close behind at No. 6. Both stand an appreciably higher chance of losing than any team from the Pac-12.
Utah also plays a Colorado State team that just lost its head coach, Jim McElwain, to Florida. Interim head coaches do not always signal bowl failure, but it's a variable F/+ does not account for. There's a chance it swings the Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl in Utah's favor.
Small Pac-12 favorites such as UCLA and USC have factors working for them, too. The F/+ margin between them and their opponents is small for a reason, but both teams match up well.
UCLA ranks No. 26 in offensive success rate but struggles with explosive plays. Kansas State ranks No. 103 in defensive success rate and excels against explosive plays. The Bruins can beat KSU in chunks, where their strength aligns with its weakness.
USC averaged 4.39 yards per carry in wins and 2.70 yards per carry in losses. Nebraska gave up 862 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns over a two-week stretch (!!!) against Wisconsin and Minnesota. Trojans running back Javorius "Buck" Allen should find plenty of room to run, which typically means USC is going to win.
But in truth, those games might all be window-dressing. The real flag-bearer for the Pac-12 will be its conference champion, Oregon, the No. 2 seed in the College Football Playoff. The Ducks will "host" Florida State on the West Coast (Pasadena, Calif.) and match up well with the undefeated Seminoles
Their offense ranks No. 3 in run efficiency and No. 5 in pass efficiency, per the S&P+ ratings at Football Outsiders. Florida State ranks outside the top 50 in both categories. And the place where Oregon's offense has been the most vulnerable—giving up sacks—is the same place where Florida State's has been the most anemic.
The 'Noles rank No. 115 with 1.31 sacks per game.
Oregon has been on a mission since losing to Arizona, suggestive of Tim Tebow's national-champion Florida team after losing to Ole Miss in 2008. And as if they needed any more focus, the Ducks get the stimulus of facing an opponent on a 29-game win streak.
"[That] will certainly get our guys to sit up straight in the meetings," Oregon head coach Mark Helfrich said after seeing the playoff matchups, per Rob Moseley of GoDucks.com.
So would playing Alabama or Ohio State.
With Oregon leading the charge and no teams outclassed by their opponents, the Pac-12 is in great shape to make bowl season its own.
By conventional numbers, the conference is favored or even money to win all eight of its postseason games, according to Odds Shark.
Calling for a 9-0 finish would be frowned upon statistically. The numbers suggest something closer to 6-2, with Oregon beating Florida State then having a 50-50 shot to win the title game.
But the odds of 6-2 becoming 7-1 or 8-0 before the Ducks head to Arlington, Texas, are well within the realm of plausibility.
No other conference can say that.
Not even the SEC.
Follow Brian Leigh on Twitter: @BLeigh35
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