Keenan Allen's Absence Will Be Too Much for Chargers Offense to Overcome

The San Diego Chargers will need to win their final two games on the road to make the postseason. It’s a tall order for a team with the worst point differential among a handful of AFC teams vying for two wild-card spots, but it would be doable for a healthy team with a good quarterback.

For a team like the Chargers that just lost wide receiver Keenan Allen to a broken clavicle and sprained knee for at least this week and realistically more, it’s going to be borderline impossible. That’s especially true when the Chargers have to play two of the top pass defenses in the league on the road.

Allen was the team’s No. 1 wide receiver, and the Chargers don’t have much depth at the receiver position. Eddie Royal will step into the starting job and Seyi Ajirotutu will become the team’s No. 3 wide receiver, but that’s not an ideal situation for either player.

Ajirotutu said via Eric D. Williams of ESPN.com:

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I'm always prepared. We've only had four active receivers for pretty much the whole season. I've always been prepared to know each position in case someone went down. So it happened to be Keenan, and I'm ready to go this week.

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Royal is ideally suited to play in the slot and Ajirotutu has just three receptions this season. The only other option would be to expand tight end Ladarius Green’s role, but he missed last week’s game with a concussion and ankle injury, and his status this week is to be determined.

The Chargers could decide to go with a run-heavy game plan, but their top running back Ryan Mathews missed last week’s game and didn’t practice Tuesday. Mathews has a carry in just six games this season, but he’s been effective when healthy. Branden Oliver and Donald Brown will get a lot of work in the run game if Mathews can’t go, but they are averaging 3.1 yards per carry combined.

Quarterback Philip Rivers just doesn’t have enough weapons to be successful behind a porous offensive line. Rivers is down to his 2012 weapons less Mathews and minus depth at wide receiver, and his offensive line is nearly as bad in pass protection.

Rivers said of losing Allen, via Michael Gehlken of U-T San Diego:

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There is no doubt it hurts. I never want to slight the player we're losing, but at the same time, I don't want to slight the guys who are stepping up. We'll miss him, but I do have confidence in the bigger role Tutu will have. Eddie and Malcom (Floyd) are going to have to pick up slack.

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Even if he gets a weapon or two back, he’ll sorely miss his favorite target Allen in the short passing game. Allen has been the target of Rivers’ passes between 112 and 121 times this season, depending on the stat service doing the counting, and he’s been the most productive on a per-route basis with 1.59 yards per route run.

In terms of yards per game, the Chargers play the No. 3 and No. 2 pass defenses over the final two games, respectively. The two teams are also No. 8 and No. 2 in yards per attempt, so it’s not a good time for the Chargers to be forcing their slot to play outside and a special teamer into being a No. 3 receiver.

Team	Pass YPG	Pass YPA	Pass YPG at Home	Pass YPA at Home
49ers	206.0 (3)	6.7 (8)	153.3 (1)	5.3 (1)
Chiefs	199.2 (2)	6.2 (2)	191.9 (2)	5.5 (2)

In six home games this season, the San Francisco 49ers have allowed just 153.3 pass yards per game—by far the lowest average in the league. The most pass yards they’ve allowed all season at home was 222 to the Seattle Seahawks on Thanksgiving. In Week 17, the Chargers will face the league’s second best pass defense in terms of yards per game allowed at home in the Kansas City Chiefs.

The weakness in the passing game is a huge concern for a team that hasn’t been very good on the road to begin with. The Chargers are 3-3 on the road with a three-point victory over the 2-12 Oakland Raiders and a 22-10 victory over the EJ Manuel-led Buffalo Bills in Week 3.

The Chargers’ biggest road win in a long time came in Baltimore a few weeks ago when Rivers had a season-high 383 passing yards and hit Allen 11 times for 121 yards and two touchdowns. Allen had 33 receiving yards on the team’s 80-yard game-winning drive with under two minutes to play to help the Chargers get the win.

Player	100-Yard Games	10-Target Games	10-Reception Games
Keenan Allen	8	9	2
Malcom Floyd	2	2	0
Antonio Gates	2	5	1
Eddie Royal	1	0	0

Over the last two years, Allen has eight 100-yard games. Floyd, Royal and tight end Antonio Gates have combined for five over the same span. The Chargers have also not lost a game in 2014 in which Allen went over the 100-yard mark, including the big win in Jacksonville and a home victory over the St. Louis Rams.

The Chargers' best chance to win without Allen might come on defense. In recent weeks, the defense has kept the Chargers in games, but the offense hasn’t been able to get its act together. Unfortunately for the Chargers, they’ll be without the services of inside linebacker Donald Butler as the team put him on injured reserve.

They could also be without defensive end Corey Liuget, who was still in a walking boot Tuesday, per Marty Caswell of The Mighty 1090 in San Diego. Liuget is the team’s best player in the front seven, and both the 49ers and Chiefs like to run the ball and have a quarterback that can break contain and run for positive yardage.

Losing running back Danny Woodhead and center Nick Hardwick early this season has been hard enough for the team, but it was supposed to be able to count on Allen and the running game. Without Allen, the Chargers are just too thin to achieve their goals.

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Unless otherwise noted, all statistics via Pro-Football-Reference and Pro Football Focus (subscription required).