College Football Playoff 2014-15: Schedule, Updated Odds and Predictions
While the season-long narrative in NCAA football focused mainly on how and why the playoff committee would choose the four teams to contest the inaugural College Football Playoff, those plot points are moot, and the discussions surrounding them have fallen by the wayside.
The matchups are set in stone, and there are plenty of intriguing storylines heading into the playoff, as all four programs are steeped in history and prestige, with monumental figures that dominate the NCAA sports landscape.
Alabama (12-1, 8-1 SEC) will take on the Ohio State University (12-1, 8-0 Big Ten) in the Sugar Bowl. All eyes will be on the gridiron in that contest, but the coaches pacing the sidelines make the matchup all the more intriguing, as the game renews a rivalry of sorts between Nick Saban and Urban Meyer.
Saban and the Crimson Tide squared off against Meyer's Florida Gators in the 2008 and 2009 SEC Championship Games. The Gators won the first contest 30-21, while Saban got his revenge a year later in a commanding 32-13 win.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
As for Oregon (12-1, 8-1 Pac-12) and Florida State (13-0, 8-0 ACC), who will do battle in the Rose Bowl, it's Heisman vs. Heisman under center. Ducks quarterback and 2014 Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota will try to outduel Florida State signal-caller Jameis Winston, who won the award—and the national championship—in 2013.
Here is the schedule for the College Football Playoff, the latest odds, predictions for each game and an early preview of the two semifinal contests.
| Semifinal | FSU vs. Oregon (-9) | Pasadena, CA | Jan. 1 | 5 p.m. | ESPN | Oregon -300, FSU +258 | Oregon 37-27 FSU |
| Semifinal | Alabama (-9) vs. Ohio State | New Orleans, CA | Jan. 1 | 8:30 p.m. | ESPN | Alabama -325, OSU +278 | Alabama 28-24 OSU |
| National Championship | TBD vs. TBD | Arlington, TX | Jan. 15 | 8:30 p.m. | ESPN | N/A | Alabama 34-31 Oregon |
| Alabama | 11-10 |
| Florida State | 6-1 |
| Ohio State | 17-10 |
| Oregon | 8-1 |
Note: Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of Wednesday, Dec. 16 at 4 a.m. EST.
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Ohio State
Alabama might be the No. 1-ranked team in the country heading into the playoff, but Ohio State could make a claim to be team 1-A if one based things solely on their superb second half of the season.
After escaping with a double-overtime win against Penn State on Oct. 25, the Buckeyes scored 42 points or more in five of their last six games. As we all know, this culminated in the most complete performance of any FBS team this season, the 59-0 laugher over Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game.
Cardale Jones started for the first time at quarterback in place of an injured J.T. Barrett and threw for 257 yards and three touchdowns against one of the best defenses in the nation.
Meyer and offensive coordinator Tom Herman have devised a diabolical uptempo, no-huddle offense that could give the Crimson Tide fits. Unlike the regular season, Alabama will have had three weeks to focus solely on stopping the Buckeyes' attack.
Of course, Ohio State has the same amount of time to add new wrinkles to the attack with Jones at the helm, something Saban is taking into account.
"The one thing he did really well was pass the ball," Saban said, referring to the Big Ten Championship Game, per Cleveland.com's Bill Landis. "He made some good throws in the Wisconsin game, some big plays downfield. We feel like philosophically, they're going to run their offense, it's just what part of it they might feature a little differently, that's the part we're not sure about."
The Crimson Tide defense didn't fare well against Auburn's no-huddle attack in the 2014 Iron Bowl, giving up 630 total yards, but a unit featuring players like Landon Collins, Reggie Ragland and Xzavier Dickson is talented and athletic enough to make an adjustment.
Alabama's best course of action is to shut down Ezekiel Elliott and force Jones to beat them. Jones never had to worry about trading blows in the Wisconsin game thanks to a phenomenal performance from the Buckeyes defense.
In that contest, Elliott busted an 81-yard touchdown run early and kept the Badgers defenders on their toes. This won't happen against Alabama, who allowed just 2.81 yards per carry and three rushing touchdowns this season, per NCAA.com.
If the Buckeyes are going to score enough to keep up with 'Bama, they will have to do so mostly through the air, and chucking the ball up to Devin Smith can only work so many times before a team catches on.
Alabama, on the other hand, can hurl the ball in wide receiver Amari Cooper's direction as many times as they like. The 2014 Heisman Trophy finalist has been pretty much unstoppable this season. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport passed along this appraisal of the Biletnikoff Award winner:
Cooper, whom Grantland's Charles P. Pierce called the "the best college football player in the country by a country mile," racked up 115 receptions this season for 1,656 yards and 14 touchdowns. Those receptions happened to account for 42.9 percent of the passes completed by quarterbacks Blake Sims and Jake Coker this season.
The Buckeyes will know what's coming when Sims drops back, but they won't be able to stop it. It will be up to sack-master Joey Bosa and company to try to disrupt Sims before either Cooper or DeAndrew White can create separation.
Ohio State did a great job of shutting down Melvin Gordon in the Big Ten Championship Game, but the run defense wasn't quite impenetrable down the stretch. Indiana's Tevin Coleman put up 228 yards on 8.4 yards per carry on Nov. 22, while Minnesota put up 218 team rushing yards on Nov. 15.
Besides, Alabama features not one, but two lethal backs in T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry. With a decent passing attack keeping the Buckeyes honest, the two-headed monster in the 'Bama backfield should have little trouble keeping the chains moving and finishing off drives in the red zone.
| Yeldon | 184 | 932 | 5.1 | 10 |
| Henry | 159 | 895 | 5.6 | 10 |
Meyer and Saban are two of the best coaches in college football with top-tier staffs supporting them. This game will likely be a back-and-forth, punch-counterpunch battle, one that will see 'Bama narrowly edge its opponent by taking Elliott out of the game and getting another stellar display from Cooper.
Prediction: Alabama 28-24 OSU
Rose Bowl: FSU vs. Oregon
The Seminoles can't afford to get behind the Ducks' high-octane attack early. Oregon, behind numerous superlative performances from Mariota, finished third in the nation in scoring (46.3 points per game) and spent much of the latter stages of the season jumping out to big leads on hapless defenses.
The Ducks held 30-3 halftime leads over Colorado and Oregon State in consecutive games in November. They also enjoyed a 23-0 halftime lead in the Pac-12 Championship Game against Arizona, a team that held the Ducks to 24 total points earlier in the year.
The turnover battle will be key to watch in this game. The Seminoles forced their fair share of turnovers this season (24), but joke's on them, Oregon doesn't make mistakes. Mariota threw just two interceptions in 372 pass attempts, and the Ducks finished third in the country in turnover margin at plus-17.
The Ducks' ability to maintain pressure on Winston and force him into making mistakes will be key to their chances in this contest. Winston bumped the curbs an awful lot this season in commandeering the Florida State offense. After throwing just 10 picks in 2013, Winston had 17 passes end up in enemy hands this season.
And yet, Florida State just didn't lose. Part of this is due to the weapons surrounding Winston on offense, which might be an even better crew overall than last season.
One holdover from last year's title-winning squad is tight end Nick O'Leary, a security blanket worthy of Linus van Pelt who scored six touchdowns and finished second on the team in both receptions (47) and yards (614). Rashad Greene proved to be nearly as money as Alabama's Cooper this season, racking up 93 receptions on the year.
Karlos Williams is a tough featured running back, but there is also freshman tailback Dalvin Cook, who at times seems to do more gliding out on the grass than actual running. Cook averaged 5.8 yards per carry this season and came up big in the ACC Championship Game, carrying the ball 31 times for 177 yards in the 37-35 win over Georgia Tech.
ESPN's David Hale noted on Dec. 7 that Cook was one of the best bets in college football to chew up big chunks of yardage:
He could be a problem for an Oregon defense that gave up 4.12 yards per carry this season, per NCAA.com.
Of course, the Noles' own defense will have a whole host of uber-skilled athletes to contend with when they're on the field.
Mariota has the luxury of throwing to players like Byron Marshall, Devon Allen, Dwayne Stanford and Darren Carrington and hardly seems to rely on any given receiver to carry him through a contest. Those four wideouts had just seven 100-yard receiving games between them this season. There really isn't a specific pass-catcher for the Seminoles to hone in on and try to disrupt Mariota's flow.
Running back Royce Freeman put up 1,299 yards on the ground this season, and even if the Seminoles bottle him up, Mariota can help out his own cause and keep the Seminoles defense honest thanks to his ability to improvise on the ground.
Oregon's offensive line is rather suspect, so Florida State would do well to cue up a few blitzes when possible and coax strong performances out of Eddie Goldman and Mario Edwards Jr., who will need to focus on putting pressure on Mariota while still maintaining containment.
It's certainly a daunting task for the Seminoles to contend with this hyper-kinetic attack, but linebacker Reggie Northrup insists his team is up to the challenge.
"Everybody has their strengths and weaknesses. Oregon is a great team. There's a lot of stuff that we see that is pretty exciting. It's exciting to play them. There's a lot of stuff that we'll see that we have an edge on. You just try and clean it up," he said, via the Orlando Sentinel's Brendan Sonnone.
Florida State is chock full of professional-grade talent, but the statistics show Oregon has done quite well against teams that rank highly in the Defensive Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), via Sonnone:
"Northrup is right in implying that Oregon has not seen a defense with so many future NFL players in the lineup. And while the Ducks have not played many top-end defenses, they have faced three teams that field a similarly-ranked defense in the FEI as FSU’s: Stanford (11th), Utah (14th) and Washington (16th).
In those contests, Oregon scored 45 points, 51 points and 45 points, respectively. When facing top-end defenses that are comparable to FSU’s, the Ducks have scored at a rate similar to their season average.
"
If Oregon plays as well as it usually does against top-rated defenses, don't expect the Noles to keep up in the first two quarters.
Winston's usual second-half heroics will give the Seminoles a fighting chance in this contest, but a hot start from Mariota and the Ducks will give the defense plenty of cushion to stifle a late comeback.
Prediction: Oregon 42-FSU 31
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
