Breaking Down the Golden State Warriors' Best Trade Bait
The Golden State Warriors are off to their best start in franchise history, and they are making it look easy. The team has a one-of-a-kind chemistry that perfectly fits head coach Steve Kerr’s offense and overall attitude.
That being said, the Warriors already need be looking at potential candidates to fill holes, and the team has significant trade bait to make that happen.
As great as this team is playing, the NBA season is still young. Kerr has been fortunate, as only one player has suffered a lengthy injury.
David Lee, who has been part of trade rumors for the past couple of years, has only seen the court for seven minutes.
Without knowing how Lee can contribute, especially as a facilitator with the second unit, it is too early to value his contribution to the team. However, he will most definitely be mentioned as one of the first players available when the season crawls closer to the trade deadline.
The Warriors have arguably the deepest bench in the Association, but the team does have potential holes going forward. Originally reported as tendinitis, the knee inflammation that has recently plagued Andrew Bogut doesn't sit well with Warriors fans, and his absence contributed to the 105-98 loss versus the team with the second-best record, the Memphis Grizzlies, on December 16.
As USA Today’s Sam Amick looked at the Warriors’ situation, he tweeted that there may still be some remaining concerns.
Teams will ultimately adjust to the style that the Warriors play and have better answers than what is being served up this season. Playoff basketball usually results in a slower, half-court style game which may shorten the court and give fewer open looks.
The rotations usually get smaller come playoff time, so the Warriors could use their assets to fortify the roster.
It is a long time until the February 19, 2015 trade deadline passes, but let’s look at what pieces may be in play as the Warriors’ best trade bait.
David Lee
The first player on the list is one who has been in constant discussions for at least two years, per Marcus Thompson of Bay Area News Group (h/t ProBasketballTalk's Dan Feldman). He has not had a real chance to prove himself in the new Kerr system.
The first question that pops up is if Lee is truly expendable. When he returns, he will have the duty to facilitate the second unit in a fashion similar to Bogut.
Lee has a lot of offensive skills, such as being ambidextrous near the hoop and a solid passing ability for a big man. He can finish at the basket, but he can also take a step back to hit the mid-range jumpers.
On top of that, Lee has been very handy as a glass cleaner. Lee has averaged over nine boards every year of his Golden State career.
He could be the final piece of the puzzle for a very deep bench, which would likely make him untradable.
However, Lee is not the stretch 4 that coach Kerr craves for the offense. Lee can hit the step-back jumper, but he has his limits.
Last season, Lee hit only 37.4 percent of his mid-range jumpers and had only one three-point attempt, per NBA.com. The previous season, he was successful 42.9 percent of the time from the same area.
To further make him expendable, Lee is the second-oldest player on the roster and has the highest annual salary this season. He doesn’t have the best reputation on defense, either.
Marreese Speights is another reason that makes Lee available to the right bidder. Speights has a career high 12.1 PPG this season and is being the spark plug for the second unit.
Lee will now have to really show coach Kerr what he can bring to the table, whether that is in a second-unit role or playing some with the starting five.
As reported by Darryl Howerton of NBA.com's Hoop Magazine, Zach Lowe of Bill Simmons’ Grantland podcast feels Lee may be shipped out:
"The elephant in the room is with them, is that if they don’t trade Lee (who makes $15.0 million this season) or Iguodala ($12.2 million), they’re going to be $10 million over the tax next year...unless you’re willing to bite the bullet for one year and pay an enormous tax bill, knowing that the cap is going to go way up [in future years] and you’ll never be in danger of paying the tax again. But yeah, I think they’d listen on David Lee deals, and honestly, I think they’d listen on Andre Iguodala deals because they’re just so deep on the wing.
"
Lee will become an expiring contract at the start of next season, so his value is even greater for a team looking to build cap space. However, the Warriors have to look at the big picture and may have to make a run at the title in spite of Lee’s salary.
They will have a year to play with that decision.
Harrison Barnes
Harrison Barnes is bait, primarily as a sweetener for a trade involving Lee, per Dan Woike of the Orange County Register. Barnes does not create any financial problems this season or next, since he is still signed under his rookie contract.
He has a lot more upside as evidenced by his play this season compared to the letdown of last season. The move to the bench, an isolation focus and no true facilitators were the major reasons for the decreased production.
Per Thompson of the Bay Area News Group, Barnes explained the struggles he went through:
"It’s hard when you get the ball in an iso situation and you have a set defense in front of you. Very few players in the league can do that. You look at the best – Durant, Melo, those guys – look at what percentage they shoot. And that’s the best of the best, so you can imagine where I’m at. I’m like at 15, 20 percent on isos. To get me with the ball moving, getting me in different spots, playing off other people, that’s more of a strength for me right now. Going straight isos, that wasn’t a strength for me.
"
This season, Barnes is showing that he can create, play defense and rebound. His statistics show the massive improvement, as he is putting up a line of 11.2 points per game, 6.4 rebounds and 1.5 assist.
On top of that, Barnes is shooting 41.1 percent from behind the arc and getting to the line more this season (2.8 attempts per game versus 2.3 last season).
If Barnes is moved, Andre Iguodala would inherit his old spot at the 3 position, and there would not be a significant drop-off.
The team needs to analyze which player, if any, is tradable, and the return must outweigh the pieces that are being shipped out.
Barnes is too valuable to this team to just be thrown in a trade. A sizable package that puts this team closer to winning a title is the only thing that is acceptable.
Andre Iguodala
Iguodala has struggled this season, as he was forced into the sixth-man position coach after Kerr took over. Barnes has put his career back on track in the starter’s role, but Iguodala has been forced into a position similar to what Barnes experienced last season.
Iguodala is too valuable to be sitting on the bench, as he is in the second year of a four-year, $48 million contract. He is more marketable to other teams because he signed a declining contract, meaning he is paid less in the upcoming years.
Iguodala looked very uncomfortable at the start of this season. He was hesitating on his shots and sometimes just passed up open looks.
He finally had one of his better games of the season, by putting up a season-high 20 points in the 128-122 overtime win versus the New Orleans Pelicans on December 14. Per Diamond Leung of the Bay Area News Group, Kerr was pleased with the continuous effort:
"He’s played great all year. What Andre does for us isn’t really reflected in how many points he scored. He just made shots tonight. He was aggressive. That’s what I like.
You think about what he does for us defensively, the versatility, the leadership, he’s probably our best player in terms of decision-making. And when we need to settle down, we go to Andre, and the game settles.
"
On paper, Iguodala is a declining asset, as his stat line is down across the board. This season, he is averaging just 7.0 PPG, 3.5 RPG and 2.6 APG, all career lows.
However, he is a team leader who is selfless and will give up opportunities to see his teammates succeed.
If the Warriors brass feels that Iguodala is stagnating in his new role, he may be on the chopping block, per NBA.com's Sam Smith.
The Big Picture
As it stands, the Warriors don’t have to trade anybody with the talent and chemistry that is currently on display. The team is living in the perfect-world scenario right now, and the Warriors look like they can beat almost anybody on any given night.
As the season wears on, injuries, peaks and valleys will have their influence. The Warriors might have to take a deeper look at plugging holes or taking that next step by using some of their arsenal.
However, the Warriors will not look at any trade scenario until all of the pieces are in play.
If Bogut suffers another injury, the Dubs will have to be ready to make a quick upgrade. Both Kevin Garnett and Greg Monroe may be available to fill the void.
They have the pieces in play to improve, but they need to get a substantial return, especially if it is one of the three players listed above.
Another area that the Warriors may look into adding some depth is at the shooting guard position.
The Warriors expected a lot more from Leandro Barbosa, who was signed to a one-year contract. The "Brazilian Blur" started out strong, but he has not provided quality minutes lately, and his playing time has been drastically reduced.
So what do they do? Do they dangle David Lee out there to see what return they can bring?
Coach Kerr will look to find ways to bridge those gaps with the current roster. General manager Bob Myers will start talking to other teams on the phone.
The Warriors are sitting in a solid position right now, but co-owner Joe Lacob wants to win a championship and bring this team to the next level. A trade might be that answer.
Salary information courtesy of Spotrac.
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