The Almost Seattle-Boston (and Possibly San Diego) Trade for the Ages

If you haven't heard about this yet, follow the link to the Seattle Mariners' blog written by Geoff Baker (The Seattle Times) and be fascinated. 

We knew the Boston Red Sox wanted to add a big bat at the trade deadline, but we also knew they wanted to add a front line starting pitcher. Whatever it was, Boston wanted a big prize, a guy who would steal all the headlines and proclaim them the team to beat in the American League East. GM Theo Epstein inquired about Roy Halladay, but that prize was deemed much too exorbitant, considering the Toronto Blue Jays would be trading the best pitcher in baseball to their division rival.

I always thought the Red Sox were the best trade partner for the Blue Jays because, in my opinion, they had the most high-end prospects in their farm system to trade. Digging through Boston’s farm system is like sifting through the rubies to try to come up with some diamonds.

But once that didn’t happen, it was time to move onto the bat.

There were some discussions with the San Diego Padres about bringing first baseman Adrian Gonzalez to Boston, but those never materialized. Not initially, anyway. Then on deadline day, Epstein packaged up Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone, and Bryan Price and sent them to Cleveland in exchange for Victor Martinez.

All was well in Boston.

But as it turns out, the Red Sox had their hand in more pools than we knew about. This is where Baker and his sources come in. According to Baker’s blog post at The Seattle Times, the Red Sox approached the Mariners about acquiring pitcher Felix Hernandez. Here’s what happened: the Red Sox told the Mariners, "Look, we will assemble a list of prospects in exchange for Hernandez, and you can choose any five from the list."

The list assembled by Boston included: Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard, Justin Masterson, Nick Hagadone, Michael Bowden, Felix Doubront, Josh Reddick, Yamaico Navarro. Pick any five Seattle, and simply send King Felix on the next plane to Fenway Park.

The Mariners, understandably stuck up on the enormous talent of Hernandez, turned that deal down, if only because you never trade away young pitchers that are as good—and controllable—as Hernandez.

Good, young pitching is such a commodity in baseball that you do whatever you can to horde it, and once you have it, you cling to those puppies like you are clinging to the edge of the Grand Canyon. As an organization, young pitching is indeed your life.

Once Seattle turned down Boston, Epstein got on the phone with Kevin Towers, GM of the Padres, and talked about a possible three-team trade between the Padres, Red Sox, and Mariners. Towers initially thought that he would be getting Hernandez in return for Gonzalez, but Epstein made it clear that he actually wanted Hernandez more than Gonzalez.

The three clubs talked for a while, but with that much substance and that much talent involved, it’s not surprising that nothing could be agreed upon. I mean that’s a ton of talent.

The proposed three-team trade would have sent Hernandez to Boston, Gonzalez to Seattle, and a bunch of prospects to San Diego. The package going to the Padres would have included a couple of prospects from the Red Sox along with Brandon Morrow, Phillippe Aumont, and Carlos Triunfel from the Mariners.

Whew...

That would have been a great deal for the Red Sox (Hernandez for a few prospects). That would have been a stellar deal for the Padres (a load of high-quality prospects for Gonzalez). But it wouldn’t have worked out so well for the Mariners (Gonzalez for Hernandez and three premium prospects).

Now, this isn’t the deal exactly.

I know you’re looking at that and saying, "Why the hell would anyone propose a deal that includes the Mariners trading Felix Hernandez and three great prospects, and only getting one bat (as good as Gonzalez may be) in return?"

I know. I was thinking the same thing.

But this deal didn’t get too far so the details weren’t worked out; that’s why it looks so lopsided as reported. There’s just way too much talent shifting hands for that deal to go down. And I would think Seattle would be a bit hesitant after the debacle of a deal that sent Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, and George Sherrill to Baltimore for Erik "DL" Bedard.

But I had to go back and look at that initial proposal between the Red Sox and Mariners, and rethink the theory that you "Never" trade away young pitching that is as good and controllable as Hernandez. When I thought about what the Mariners would be getting in return, I started thinking, "Why wouldn’t they make this trade?"

The question is, does Seattle currently have enough to compete next season with the Angels and Rangers?

I say no. Not enough offense, not enough health.

Now, the Mariners have Hernandez under team control through the 2011 season, although his arbitration years are going to begin coming at a steep price. I would assume that they won’t be able to resign him, and therefore, will be looking to trade him at next year’s deadline, or the subsequent offseason (the Halladay proceedings may act as a precedent).

So now the question becomes, since the Mariners won’t be contending while Hernandez is there, will the package they get a year from now be better than what Boston offered? Possibly. But maybe not. Maybe they eat the two draft picks instead.

Of course, that list presented by the Red Sox didn’t offer every top prospect they have—they left off Ryan Westmoreland, Casey Kelly, and Lars Anderson—but it was still pretty darn good. If I’m Seattle, give me those first five: Buchholz, Bard, Masterson, Hagadone, and Bowden.

Think about that haul.

The Mariners get three solid starters in Buchholz, Masterson, and Bowden. They get a future stud closer in Bard. And they get another power left-handed bullpen arm in Hagadone. That would allow them to fully, and properly, develop Morrow as a starter. Wait another couple of years when some other prospects come up and you are looking at a rotation of Buchholz, Morrow, Masterson, Bowden, and Aumont, with Triunfel in the lineup and two power arms at the back of the bullpen in Bard and Hagadone.

Maybe you have an aging Ichiro in the lineup, but add a couple of other bats through free agency or the draft (they have a great one coming in Dustin Ackley who the M's took with the second pick in June from the University of North Carolina; Ackley projects to be an All-Star center fielder) in the next couple of years, and you’re telling me that’s not a great young foundation for a contending team?

Seems like it could have been the future of Seattle to me.

You can reach Teddy Mitrosilis at [e-mail].