What To Expect from Brian Matusz Tonight

Yeah, Brian Matusz is making his Major League debut this evening, taking on the Detroit Tigers. And yeah, many Orioles fans are expecting him to dominate the Tiggers with his four-pitch repertoire. Realistically though, what kind of night should we really expect? And what can we expect from him the rest of the season? I thought you'd never ask.

You gotta admit, the O's have been really lucky with their rookie pitchers this year. Five starting pitchers have made their debuts, four have won their first decision in that game, and the O's have gone on to win all five contests.

However, none of the rookies have thrown more than 5.2 innings, with both Brad Bergesen and David Hernandez both lasting that long. Koji Uehara and Jason Berken both lasted 5.0, while Chris Tillman could only make it through 4.2. 

Looking back over the past 5-6 years, it seems very unlikely that Matusz will make it into the seventh or eighth innings. Only two Orioles rookies have lasted more than six innings in their Major League debuts since 2003.

One of those was 27 year old Chris Waters, who dazzled the Angels for eight two-hit innings last year. The other was 27 year old Eric DuBose who picked up his first loss after throwing 6.1 impressive innings against the Royals back in 2003.

Remember, Matusz is only 22 years old, and doesn't have the career experience of a 27 year old.

That said, I'd expect Matusz to finish somewhere around the fifth to sixth inning, regardless of how well he pitches, especially if he doesn't keep the Tigers off the scoreboard, something only two O's pitchers have been able to do in the big league debuts.

Once again, minor league vet Chris Waters holds the distinction with his eight-inning, two hit, zero earned run performance in 2008. He actually shares the distinction with the infamous Daniel Cabrera, who threw six innings of shutout ball in his debut. 

Every other O's debuter has surrendered at least one earned run, with Bergesen, Hernandez, and Uehara all matching that mark this season.

Looking at the worst case scenario for Matusz, it can't get much worse than Jim Johnson's debut as a starter back in 2006. The now trusted closer was awful, giving up eight earned runs on nine hits, in only 3.1 innings worth of work.

And while the best case so far has been Water's gem in 2008, I'd expect Matusz to surrender somewhere in the neighborhood of 2-3 earned runs to go with his...I'll say even six innings of work.

Strikeouts have never been a calling card of Orioles rookie debuts, even if some of those arms were strikeout fiends in the minors. Radhames Liz and Eric DuBose share the honor of striking out the most batters in their debuts, with both sending five batters back to the dugout looking or swinging.

This year, the high roller has been Bergesen, who K'd four in his debut. Neither Berken, Hernandez (see strikeout fiend), Tillman, or Uehara managed to strike out more than three batters. 

Walks have been another matter. The O's rookies have always shown a predisposed propensity for giving up a drastic number of walks in their careers, and their debuts have beared that out.

Before this season, every O's rookie hurler has issued at least two walks, with all but DuBose issuing three or more. Garrett Olson, Adam Loewen, Erik Bedard, and Hayden Penn all issued four or more.

In all, taking those numbers into consideration, I'd expect about four strikeouts and two walks from Matusz, who is said to have excellent command of all his pitches.

Each rookie has thrown at least 85 pitches in his debut, regardless of how many innings he went. David Hernandez has actually thrown the highest number of pitches of any of them, topping out with 108.

Garrett Olson brings up the rear with the 85 number, but everyone else falls somewhere in between. Five have thrown over 100 pitches (Hernandez, Waters, Loewen, Penn and DuBose), while Berken and Uehara are the only others joining Olson with under 90. 

I'd expect Matusz to finish somewhere around 95-98 during his six innings, meaning he would be tossing about 16 pitches per inning, on par with the debuts of Bergesen, Liz and D-Cab.

Therefore, taking into account the past we should expect Matusz to finish with a line somewhat like this: 6 IP 2 ER 4 K 2 BB 98 pitches.

And considering the Orioles are 9-6 in their pitchers debuts since 2003, 6-3 when their starters go at least five innings, and 5-4 in debuts against the AL Central, expect Matusz to roll out of Detroit with a 1-0 record.