Florida State vs. Oregon: Who Is the Better 2nd-Half Team?

With nine come-from-behind victories this season, it would seem as though the third-ranked Florida State Seminoles are the best second-half team in the nation.

But is that really the case? Perhaps it is the second-ranked Oregon Ducks, Florida State’s Rose Bowl opponent, that are the team to beat in the second half.

While there are tons of intriguing Rose Bowl storylines, most notably a meeting of the past two Heisman Trophy winners, one that has been overlooked is how differently these two conference champions have won this year.

The Ducks are perhaps the best front-runners in the entire country and usually play the first half of games as if they were lightning shot out of a cannon. When they’ve had a lead this year, they’ve pummeled opponents into the ground and left no doubt as to whom the better team was.

Meanwhile, the Seminoles have played the role of the cardiac kids. Fans of Florida State have purchased a controlling share of the Lipitor market in the process. The Noles have made a habit of waiting until the second half or fourth quarter to inflict pain on their opponents and ultimately spoil upset after upset.

This phenomenon is even more interesting when you consider that during Florida State’s national title run last season, they played more like the 2014 Ducks than the 2014 Noles.

Both teams have found great success in the second half of games this season, and it is highly likely that the Rose Bowl will be decided in the last 30 minutes.

So, which semifinalist is the better second-half team?

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More Points!

All college football teams are bound to fall behind in a couple of games during the course of the season, even the very best squads. In fact, as Nicole Auerbach of USA Today explained on Dec. 3, Oregon, Alabama and Florida State trailed in a majority of their games this season.

However, the difference between Bama, Oregon and Florida State is the margin by which the Noles have had to come back from.

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Even the best teams in college football get behind in games. Alabama has trailed in eight of 12 games this season — the same number as Florida State — and Oregon has been down seven times. The difference comes in the margins. Alabama's average largest deficit is 6.4 points, and Oregon's is 7.1. Florida State's is 14.1.

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Including the ACC Championship against Georgia Tech, the Noles have had nine come-from-behind victories this season. In Auerbach’s piece, John Ewing, the director of research and analytics for Prediction Machine, explains just how unlikely it is that the Noles are still undefeated this season.

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According to John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics for Prediction Machine, Florida State was the projected winner 83% of the time in all of its games, and even considering the games in which opponents had leads in the second half, no team was ever more than 75% likely to win its game against Florida State. Still, there was only approximately a 1-in-10,000 chance that Florida State should still be undefeated considering the team's tendency to trail so many opponents, Prediction Machine found.

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While Florida State was almost always favored to win ballgames in which the team tailed, the probability that it would actually win each and every one of those games is bordering on a statistical anomaly.

So, how have the Seminoles been able to dominate the last 30 minutes of games this season? Well, it all starts with 2013 Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston and the FSU offense.

In the first half of games this season, Florida State is averaging 16.6 points per half—ranked No. 37 in the nation. In second halves, FSU is averaging 17.5 points—ranked No. 18. While an extra point of offense per half may not sound like a lot, it is.

On average, FBS teams have averaged 14.6 points per first half this season. Comparatively, teams have averaged just 13.3 points per second half this season.

Florida State is different. It is one of the few teams in college football that average more points in the second half than in the first. Moreover, the Noles are also scoring four more points in the second half than the average FBS team.

But how do those statistics compare to the Ducks? Oregon has one of the most prolific offenses in college football and is led by 2014 Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota.

The Ducks rank No. 3 in the country in points per game and total offense this year. Moreover, they rank No. 5 in first-half points with 24.2 and No. 3 in second-half points with 20.8.

Oregon clearly has the far superior offense and is averaging 11.5 more points per game than Florida State.

The Ducks are outscoring FSU by more than a touchdown in first halves this year and by 3.3 points in second halves, despite the fact that Oregon’s offense has taken its foot off the gas in multiple games this season due to insurmountable leads.

However, Oregon’s offense “slows down” in the second half. Florida State’s offense has gotten better as the game has gone along.

Additionally, FSU knows how to win close games in the fourth quarter. If a similar situation were to occur in the Rose Bowl, one would think FSU would be more apt to deal with that scenario.

By my calculations, the Ducks have only been in four games this season in which their opponent was within two scores of them going into the fourth quarter.

In those four contests—against Michigan State, Washington State, Arizona and Utah—the Ducks have averaged 14.5 points in those fourth quarters and have allowed just six points per fourth quarter. Even in their loss to Arizona, the Ducks won the fourth quarter 10-7.

Oregon’s offense is just as potent as any in college football, and it’s clear it dominates the Seminoles in terms of points per half. However, there is something to be said for teams that get better as the game goes along.

Florida State is flat out a better team in the second half than it is in the first half. But is FSU's offense really better than Oregon in the second half of games this season? The statistics would suggest that it's not.

First-Half versus Second-Half Defense 

Despite the fact that the Ducks rank No. 84 in total defense and No. 103 in passing defense, they’ve done a relatively good job of keeping opposing teams out of the end zone, especially in the first halves of games this year.

In total, Oregon is allowing 22.5 points per game this season, which ranks No. 29 in the country. Statistically, Oregon’s defense has gotten off to strong starts this season and has allowed an average of 10.7 points per game in the first 30 minutes of games this season—ranked No. 16 in the country.

Over Oregon’s past five games, the Ducks defense has allowed a paltry 5.8 points per first half, including a total of six points over the past three games.

While Oregon’s defense has been very solid in the first half of games this season, the D has taken some hits in the final 30 minutes.

Oregon ranks No. 52 in the country in terms of points allowed per second half this year. On average, the Ducks have allowed 12.6 points per second half. While that number is still above the national average of 13.3, the Ducks are still allowing almost two more points in the second half than in the first.

Points Per Half	Oregon	National Rank	Florida State	National Rank
1st-Half Points	24.2	No. 5	16.6	No. 37
2nd-Half Points	20.8	No. 3	17.5	No. 18
1st-Half Points Allowed	10.7	No. 16	14.5	No. 67
2nd-Half Points Allowed	12.6	No. 52	9.4	No. 13

So how does Florida State’s defense compare to Oregon’s?

In terms of points per game allowed, the Ducks and Seminoles are basically identical. Florida State is ranked just behind the Ducks at No. 30 and is allowing 23 points per game this year. Moreover, Oregon’s defense has allowed 35 touchdowns this year—ranked No. 29—and FSU has allowed 36 touchdowns—ranked No. 33.

You would think based on Florida State’s propensity for comebacks that its second-half defense would be far superior than its first-half D. You would be correct.

In the first half of games this season, FSU’s defense is ranked No. 67 in points allowed with 14.5, which is just a hair better than the national average of 14.6.

However, the Seminoles defense has shined in the second half this year. It's allowing a minuscule 9.4 points per fourth quarter this year—ranked No. 13 in the nation. Furthermore, Florida State’s defense is allowing 3.2 fewer points than Oregon’s defense in second halves this year and 3.9 fewer than the national average.

Oregon and Florida State’s defenses are almost identical; however, it’s very clear which defense is better in the first half and which is better in the final 30 minutes.

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The Heisman Winners

While defense, production out of the backfield, coaching, turnovers and a host of other factors will help determine which team advances to the national championship, the Rose Bowl ultimately will be won by the quarterback who gets the job done in the second half.

Let’s start with the 2014 Heisman Trophy winner.

Mariota’s offense scores more points in the first half, which is partially due to the fact that he and his starters often sit out large portions of the second half. That being said, Mariota’s second-half passing numbers are actually much more efficient than those in the first half.

Mariota’s passer rating in the second half of games this year is 208.95, which is far and away the best in the nation.

Moreover, he is completing an ungodly 75.4 percent of his passes in the second half, which ranks No. 2 in the country. Yes, Mariota has more passing touchdowns in the first half (21) than he does in the second (17), but he’s been more efficient with the ball, which could be huge against Florida State.

The most obvious difference between Mariota’s first- and second-half performance this year has been in the running game. In the first half of games this year, Mariota has rushed 78 times for 511 yards—an average of 6.55 yards per carry—and nine touchdowns.

In the second halves, he has dialed down the running game. So far this year, Mariota has 39 carries for 158 yards (4.05 YPC) and five touchdowns in the second half of games.

This is not to say Mariota is a worse overall player in the second half. He’s not. Mariota has been equally as good in both halves. He's just done more damage with his legs in the first half and has been more efficient with his arm in the final 30 minutes.

Stats by Half	Passing Yards	TD	INT	Completion %	Passer Rating
Mariota 1st Half	2,234	21	1	64.1	173.05
National Rank	No. 3	No. 5	No. 2	No. 46	No. 3
Winston 1st Half	1,790	14	13	62.9	137.37
National Rank	No. 28	No. 20	Last	No. 53	No. 73
Mariota 2nd Half	1,549	17	1	75.4	208.85
National Rank	No. 14	No. 2	No. 1	No. 2	No. 1
Winston 2nd Half	1,769	10	4	68.4	158.33
National Rank	No. 4	No. 32	No. 57	No. 15	No. 21

Meanwhile, the other Heisman-winning quarterback in this matchup has performed much better in the second half of games this season. By Jameis Winston’s incredibly lofty standards, his performance in the first half of games this season has been an unmitigated disaster.

Not only has Winston thrown the most first-half interceptions in college football (13), but he has also registered a 137.37 quarterback rating—ranked No. 73 in the country—and has only completed 62.9 percent of his passes. You don’t need to look much further to see why the Seminoles have struggled as a team in the first half of games this season.

However, Winston has been great in the second half this season, which is one of the reasons why FSU has been able to overcome nine significant deficits. On average, Florida State is outscoring opponents by 8.1 points in the second half this year.

Winston has the fourth-most second-half passing yards this season (1,769) and has only thrown four picks, which is a bit high by national standards but low in comparison to his interception percentage.

Winston has thrown 10 second-half touchdowns and completed more than 68 percent of his passes—a 5.5 percent improvement over his first-half completion percentage this season.

Mariota’s performance in second halves this season is still superior to Winston’s; however, Winston gets much better as the game goes along, as does his defense. The Ducks may have the slight edge in the second half due to the performance of their offense, but there’s no denying the fact that Florida State is a dominant second-half team.

The 2015 Rose Bowl will come down to what happens in the second half. There will be no running away and hiding by either team unless something really crazy happens.

Oregon’s offense is clearly superior in both halves this season, and its defense outranks Florida State’s in the first half as well. However, Florida State’s offense improves in the second half of games while Oregon’s declines, and FSU has one of the strongest second-half defenses in the nation.

So who’s the better second-half team? It’s too close to call.

Statistics courtesy of CFBStats.com unless otherwise stated. All quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise stated.

Jason Gold is Bleacher Report’s lead Oregon writer. Follow Jason on Twitter @TheSportsGuy33.