Forming the Perfect Rebuilding Plan for the Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves aren’t officially rebuilding, at least not yet, but the organization certainly has its sights set on the future.

That became clear back in late September, when Braves president John Schuerholz tore apart the team’s front office and then hired a new cast of personnel, all the while emphasizing a need to strengthen the team’s farm system and build from within.

Schuerholz replaced general manager Frank Wren with John Hart, who initially carried an interim GM tag before officially taking over as the Braves president of baseball operations, retained assistant GM John Coppolella, promoted Brian Bridges to scouting director and hired widely respected scouting and player development guys such as Gordon Blakeley, Roy Clark and Dave Trembley.

It wasn’t long before the Braves’ revamped front office put its plan in motion, as it traded Jason Heyward to the St. Louis Cardinals in late November in exchange for a pair of young pitchers.

Sure, the 25-year-old Heyward was a hometown product, fan favorite and arguably the best defensive right fielder in the game; he was also a year away from hitting the open market as a free agent, and the unlikelihood of being able to extend him forced Hart to extract as much value while he could.

David Goldman/Associated Press

However, just when it seemed as though the Braves were beginning to strip down and rebuild, Hart and Co. signed free agent Nick Markakis to a four-year, $48 million deal to serve as Heyward’s replacement. The move suggested that the organization, despite an emphasis on sustained, long-term success, plans to be competitive in 2015. And if that requires retooling through a few reasonable signings and trades during the offseason, then so be it.

But are the Braves in a position where retooling represents the best move, or should Hart be more aggressive given the chance to potentially rebuild the organization?

Hart was the architect behind the Indians when they won six AL Central titles in the ‘90s and played in the World Series in both 1995 and 1997.

He believed scouting and player development was paramount in building a perennial winner, also emphasizing the importance of making smart trades.

More importantly, Hart was a pioneer in recognizing the potential value in locking up pre-arbitration young players to multi-year deals, which is why the Indians had such a strong nucleus of talent during his time with the team.

"We were building with youngsters from our own system and at some point wanted to stop the revolving door," Hart said via Hal Bodley of MLB.com. "We tied up players such as Jim Thome, Sandy Alomar, Paul Sorrento, Manny Ramirez, Omar Vizquel, Albert Belle, Charles Nagy, Kenny Lofton, Bartolo Colon. These were really good players."

The good news for Hart is that the Braves, under former GM Frank Wren, did an admirable job retaining homegrown, core players, giving pre-arbitration, long-term extensions to Freddie Freeman, Julio Teheran, Andrelton Simmons and Craig Kimbrel.

Unfortunately, the team’s talent pipeline has run increasingly dry since those deals, and it’s forced it to shift away from its strengths and pursue older players in trades as well as on the open market. As a result, the Braves are on the hook for $28 million next season between B.J. Upton and Dan Uggla’s contracts, while the former is owed $46 million over the next two years.

Todd Kirkland/Associated Press

Meanwhile, left fielder Justin Upton, who was acquired along with Chris Johnson from the Diamondbacks prior to the 2013 season, is set to earn $14.5 million in 2015, his final season before free agency.

The financial obligations to these non-homegrown players negatively affected the Braves’ player development at corresponding positions, and they’re a main reason why the organization, despite its solid core of young talent, is teetering between retooling and rebuilding.

"We've got a hole in our system," Hart said, via Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com. "We don't have the impactful young players coming. We're a little bit hamstrung there, and I think therein is the balance that I'm trying to weigh here as we go forward.”

But no matter how hamstrung the Braves seem at the moment, Hart’s moves this offseason suggest he believes the team can be competitive in the coming years without sacrificing any long-term goals.

From David O’Brien of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Hart said:

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I wouldn’t be telling you the truth if I said we’re not taking a look at ’17. But we haven’t made a move yet that would give anybody any reason to think that we’re even considering doing a strip-down (rebuild).

If you weren’t convinced before (Markakis signed), we’re certainly paying attention to ’15 and ’16 as well as keeping an eye on ’17. I mean, we’re the Atlanta Braves. We’re playing very close attention to what it is we do this year. … I’ve been on the media side of it (as an analyst for MLB Network), so I understand if people want to have their opinions. But at the end, we’re not (a total-rebuild) team.

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But the Braves could still become a “total-rebuild team” this offseason should they decide to trade Justin Upton and Evan Gattis, arguably their two best trade chips. Dealing either player, let alone both, could help the Braves replenish their farm system, opines O’Brien:

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The farm system Hart inherited is in pretty bad shape, ranked among the bottom three in the majors in overall talent, and particularly lacking in major-league-ready players at the Double-A and Triple-A levels. ... That shortage of minor league prospects who are major-league ready is a reason that rebuilding is an attractive option, since trading established players should bring back multiple young players. 

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However, don’t expect Hart to settle for anything short of an ideal return for his power hitters; Gattis has four years of team control remaining on his contract, while Upton, who’s entering the final year of his contract, could net the team a compensatory draft pick when he signs with another team next offseason.

Although it’s yet to be seen whether the Braves will trade Upton or Gattis this offseason—or any other player, for that matter—and if they do, what they will receive in return, it’s clear that there isn’t an easy fix for the team’s current situation.

It makes sense for the organization to focus its efforts on contending in 2017, in which case Hart would likely lean toward a full rebuild. Yet, at the same time, the Braves’ impressive core of Freeman, Simmons, Teheran and Kimbrel should give the team a chance to remain competitive between now and then.

So, for now at least, Hart will continue to add necessary pieces along the way, keeping the big moves on the back burner until they clearly align with the Braves' long-term goals.