Predicting the 10 Biggest Performances in College Football Bowl Season
It is hard but not impossible to predict where the biggest performances of college football bowl season will come from.
Some of the biggest names in the country stole the show in 2013, chief among them Louisville quarterback Teddy Bridgewater (427 passing yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions against Miami) and Clemson wide receiver Sammy Watkins (16 catches, 227 yards, two touchdowns against Ohio State).
But bowl season isn't just about the big boys. It's also about the little guys. It was just as fun to watch Adam Muema rush for 229 yards and three touchdowns against Buffalo as it was to watch Bridgewater, Watkins and the other All-America candidates go to work.
But who will post the biggest numbers this season?
To answer that, we have taken a look at the players and matchups of every game on the schedule. We did not dock points for strength of opponent—e.g., 400 passing yards against Rice would be considered a "bigger performance" than 398 passing yards against Alabama—and ended up with a solid mix of big and small bowls.
Sound off below and let us know whom you would add.
WR Leonte Carroo, Rutgers
1 of 10
Opponent
North Carolina (Quick Lane Bowl)
What That Means
North Carolina ranks No. 125 (out of 128) in the country with 28 passing plays of 30-plus yards allowed. Leonte Carroo ranks No. 6 in the country with 11 receptions of 30-plus yards.
You do the math.
Carroo had 100 or more receiving yards in four of his past six games, and he never needed more than six receptions to get there. He is one of the best downfield receivers in the country, and quarterback Gary Nova (when he's not throwing interceptions) has a strong enough downfield arm to beat this Tar Heels secondary.
Prediction
9 receptions, 190 yards, 2 TD
WR Corey Coleman, Baylor
2 of 10
Opponent
Michigan State (Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic)
What That Means
Baylor matches up well with a Michigan State defense that dominates on most downs but gives up too many big plays. The Spartans rank No. 15 in the country with 84 passing plays of 10-plus yards allowed but No. 95 with 11 plays of 40-plus yards allowed.
Corey Coleman ranks No. 2 in the country with nine receptions of 40-plus yards. He had 15 catches for 224 yards and a touchdown when Baylor beat Oklahoma, feasting on a secondary that was preoccupied with stopping Antwan Goodley.
Michigan State plays sides with its cornerbacks, so if Baylor matches Coleman against Darian Hicks—i.e., away from Trae Waynes—he has a chance to go off. Don't bet against this being a shootout.
Prediction
12 receptions, 175 yards, 2 TD
RB James Conner
3 of 10
Opponent
Houston (Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl)
What That Means
Houston's defensive line ranks No. 122 in adjusted line yards, Football Outsiders' opponent-adjusted metric for run defense. Pittsburgh's offensive line ranks No. 7 in the same category.
Only Oregon, Ohio State, Georgia Tech, Auburn, Georgia and Alabama do a better job paving holes than Pittsburgh.
Only North Texas, Florida International, Louisiana-Monroe, South Florida, Kent State and Wake Forest do a worse job plugging holes than Houston.
James Conner finished No. 5 in the country with 139.6 rushing yards per game and No. 3 with 39 runs of 10-plus yards. He had 229 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries in last year's bowl game.
Prediction
30 carries, 260 yards, 3 TD
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
QB Brandon Doughty, Western Kentucky
4 of 10
Opponent
Central Michigan (Popeyes Bahamas Bowl)
What That Means
Statistically, Brandon Doughty is the hottest quarterback in America. He's thrown for 1,339 yards, 19 touchdowns and two interceptions in his past four games—all Western Kentucky victories.
Central Michigan does not have the pass defense to stop him. It ranks No. 97 on Football Outsiders' S&P+ ratings and allowed Andrew Hendrix—Andrew Hendrix!—of Miami (Ohio) to throw for 369 yards and two touchdowns in mid-November
Plus, this game will be played in the Bahamas, which we don't have a data point for but I assume means perfect weather conditions.
Prediction
32 of 45, 450 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT
RB Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin
5 of 10
Opponent
Auburn (Outback Bowl)
What That Means
Auburn has manifest tackling problems and has allowed 5.50 yards per carry in its past four FBS games. It also just fired defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson and does not have time (for obvious reason) to implement Will Muschamp's new defensive scheme.
Wisconsin lost head coach Gary Andersen to Oregon State but still has Melvin Gordon. Interim head coach/athletic director Barry Alverez will feed his Heisman finalist the rock.
Gordon needs 232 yards to pass Kevin Smith (Central Florida, 2007) for No. 2 on the all-time single-season rushing list and 293 yards to pass Barry Sanders (Oklahoma State, 1988) for the record.
Wisconsin will do everything in its power to get him there.
Prediction
30 carries, 240 yards, 2 TD
RB Duke Johnson, Miami
6 of 10
Opponent
South Carolina (Duck Commander Independence Bowl)
What That Means
South Carolina's defensive line ranks No. 107 in adjusted line yards and is No. 123 on standard downs. Miami's offensive line ranks No. 33 in adjusted line yards and is No. 16 on standard downs.
The Gamecocks rank No. 104 with 23 runs of 20-plus yards allowed. Duke Johnson ranks No. 4 with 16 runs of 20-plus yards.
The Hurricanes have a mismatch in the trenches and one of the best running backs in the country to take advantage of that. South Carolina allowed 200-plus rushing yards in more than half of its regular-season games and twice allowed opponents to break 300.
Prediction
25 carries, 200 yards, 2 TD; 4 receptions, 35 yards
OLB Hau'oli Kikaha, Washington
7 of 10
Opponent
Oklahoma State (TicketCity Cactus Bowl)
What That Means
Oklahoma State's offensive line ranks No. 124 in adjusted sack rate, Football Outsiders' opponent-adjusted metric for pass blocking. It finished No. 116 in the country with 3.08 sacks allowed per game.
That could be trouble against Hau'oli Kikaha, who led the nation with 18 sacks during the regular season. He had four games with two or more sacks and two games in which he recorded three.
Kikaha was a unanimous first-team All-American and could not have drawn a better matchup for the final game of his college career.
Prediction
7 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, 1 forced fumble
WR Tony Lippett, Michigan State
8 of 10
Opponent
Baylor (Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic)
What That Means
Baylor ranks No. 128—last among FBS teams—with 32 passing plays of 30-plus yards allowed. Tony Lippett ranks No. 22 with nine receptions of 30-plus yards and would likely have even more if not for Michigan State taking its foot off the pedal so frequently.
But Sparty will not have the chance to take its foot off the pedal against a Baylor offense that can score with them. This game should closely resemble the Oregon-Michigan State game from September, during which Lippett caught 11 passes for 133 yards and a score.
"We are hungry and hyped up to go out there and compete against a tough team that is atop their division," Lippett told reporters at MSU's Cotton Bowl media day. "We feel like we can put points on the board just as much as anyone can."
Prediction
10 catches, 180 yards, 2 TD
QB Dak Prescott, Mississippi State
9 of 10
Opponent
Georgia Tech (Capital One Orange Bowl)
What That Means
Georgia Tech's defense can be had in the trenches. Its defensive line ranks No. 111 in opportunity rate—the percentage of carries that go for five or more yards, provided five yards are available.
Mississippi State's offensive line ranks No. 19 in opportunity rate. The Bulldogs gain five or more yards on 44.9 percent of qualified carries. The Yellow Jackets allow five or more yards on 43.1 percent.
This is precisely the type of matchup that Dak Prescott can take advantage of. He is 6'2", 230 pounds and excels at gaining yardage in chunks. He's rushed for 80 or more yards in half of Mississippi State's games and 100 or more yards in four. He also had five games with 20 or more carries, so you know he's not afraid to be a workhorse.
And all of that fails to mention Prescott's throwing ability, which helped him remain in the Heisman conversation for most of the season. Ralph Russo of The Associated Press mentioned Prescott as a 2015 Heisman front-runner, and the Orange Bowl would serve as a nice springboard for next year.
Prediction
17 of 25, 285 yards, 3 TD; 20 carries, 105 yards, 2 TD
RB Rushel Shell, West Virginia
10 of 10
Opponent
Texas A&M (Liberty Bowl)
What That Means
Texas A&M ranks No. 114 with 223.5 rushing yards allowed per game. Its run defense ranks No. 110 on the S&P+ ratings, and its defensive line ranks No. 112 in adjusted line yards.
The Aggies defensive line has been especially bad on standard downs, during which it ranks No. 126 in adjusted line yards. Only SMU and New Mexico State (combined record: 3-21) were worse.That could be a problem against a West Virginia offensive line that ranks No. 26 in standard-down adjusted line yards.
Rushel Shell played the best game of his Mountaineers career in the regular-season finale, posting 146 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries at Iowa State. The former 5-star recruit has remarkable talent and a bowl matchup that couldn't look tastier.
This could be his breakout performance.
Prediction
26 carries, 200 yards, 2 TD
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
