Cotton Bowl 2015: Bold Predictions for Michigan State vs. Baylor
The 2015 Cotton Bowl on Jan. 1 features two teams that would love to get some redemption in the College Football Playoff after being left out of the mix by the selection committee.
Baylor was the first team left out of the Top Four, ranking No. 5 in the final poll of the season despite closing out the year with a decisive 38-27 victory over Kansas State. The Bears will be looking back to a tough loss to West Virginia as the cause for their woes. They'll be looking to prove they were worthy of a playoff spot.
Another team potentially worthy of a spot is Michigan State. The Spartans were impressive on both sides of the ball this season; however, they suffered losses to Oregon and Ohio State—two playoff teams. Ending the season with three wins wasn't good enough to climb back into contention, and they were awarded a trip to the Cotton Bowl instead.
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This is certainly an intriguing matchup that pits the high-powered Baylor offense against the stout Michigan State defense. As we await this highly anticipated contest, let's take a look at a couple of bold predictions for each team in the Cotton Bowl.
Bold Predictions for Michigan State
The Spartans Hold Baylor's Offense to Four Touchdowns
Sure, holding an opposing offense to four touchdowns seems like a cakewalk for Michigan State's defense, but that won't be the case against Baylor's top-ranked offense that averages 48.8 points per game. In fact, Baylor has only been held under 30 points just twice this season, and the Bears scored three offensive touchdowns in each of those games.
However, Baylor has been on a tear since then, scoring at least 48 points in four of its last five contests. The Bears are on a major hot streak, and that's bad news for a Spartans team that allowed 46 points to Oregon and 49 to Ohio State.
If Michigan State is going to contain the Baylor offense, it must apply pressure to quarterback Bryce Petty. The Bears signal-caller has been their offensive catalyst, passing for 3,305 yards and 26 touchdowns this year.
The Spartans can counter with a solid pass rush. They have maintained good pressure on opposing quarterbacks this season, ranking 11th in the nation with 37 sacks in 12 games.
Petty has been sloppy at times in 2014—notably in the team's lone loss to West Virginia in which he completed 44.4 percent of his passes—and if Michigan State can keep him under pressure, the Bears offense will be out of sync and struggle to get points on the board.
Connor Cook Throws for 350 Yards, Three Touchdowns
Baylor has been good against the run this season, ranking ninth in the nation while allowing an average of 107.7 yards per game and just 2.94 yards per carry. If Michigan State is to generate any kind of offense, it must be by Cook's arm.
The junior signal-caller has been impressive this season, throwing for 2,900 yards and 22 touchdowns against just six interceptions. He's had his up-and-down games but has performed admirably in difficult contests, throwing for 343 yards and two scores against Oregon and 358 yards and two touchdowns against Ohio State. Those two performances proved he can perform under duress, and he'll demonstrate that again in the Cotton Bowl.
The Bears have had their fair share of trouble against the pass this season, ranking 101st in the nation and allowing an average of 260.0 yards per game through the air. With a pass defense far worse than that of Ohio State and Oregon, Baylor will allow Cook to engage in an aerial shootout.
With a big weapon in the talented Tony Lippett at his disposal, Cook shouldn't have much trouble hooking up regularly with his 6'3" wide receiver to burn Baylor's defense for his biggest performance of the season.
Bold Predictions for Baylor
Bryce Petty Throws for 350 Yards, Three Touchdowns
Yes, this is the exact same bold prediction that we set for Michigan State's quarterback; however, it is completely justified in its own right. While Cook has to rise to the challenge against a good team with a shaky secondary, Petty must navigate the nation's 25th-ranked pass defense that allows an average of just 196.0 yards per game.
There's a reason why Petty is being considered by many draft pundits as an elite prospect. The senior has consistently delivered big performances throughout the year. He's eclipsed the 400-yard passing mark three times this season and has thrown multiple touchdowns in eight of his 11 games. He'll be under heavy pressure to elevate that number to nine in the Cotton Bowl.
While Shock Linwood has been good out of the backfield this season, the Spartans are allowing just 97.5 yards per game on the ground, ranking sixth in the nation in that category. This will only provide a bigger challenge to Petty, as he'll have to orchestrate a one-dimensional offense.
The Spartans have given up big days to quarterbacks this season; Heisman winner Marcus Mariota and the electric J.T. Barrett both eclipsed 300 yards and three touchdowns. However, Petty wasn't exactly in the Heisman discussion for his efforts, and he'll need his best performance of the season to surpass those two prolific quarterbacks.
Baylor Holds Jeremy Langford Under 100 Yards
Michigan State's senior running back has put on quite a show this season. He's carried 249 times for 1,360 yards and 19 touchdowns, averaging 5.5 yards per attempt. Langford has been on an absolute roll of late, running for more than 100 yards in each of his nine contests. He's also scored at least two touchdowns in each of his last six.
Baylor has been excellent against the run this season, ranking ninth in the nation while holding opponents to an average of 107.7 yards per game on the ground. Even more impressive is the team's ability to limit ball-carriers to just 2.94 yards per carry—an average bested by only three teams.
However, here's where Baylor's trouble comes into play: Langford rushed 30 times for 118 yards and two touchdowns in his final game of the season. That game was against Penn State—one of the three teams to allow fewer yards per carry than the Bears. Still, there's light at the end of the tunnel.
For the Bears to find success where Penn State couldn't, they simply need to limit Langford's workload. That can be done by Petty and the offense, as gaining a big lead would force Michigan State to throw more often than it would like. That's exactly what happened against Oregon, as the running back carried 24 times for 86 yards—his third-lowest total of the season.
All team statistics and rankings courtesy of NCAA.com and current as of December 13.
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