Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints: Complete Week 16 Preview for Atlanta

The Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints face off in a divisional showdown that will definitely have playoff implications. Atlanta, at 5-9, is still in the running—surprisingly—for the division title if it wins out. The Saints are also in the running at 6-8, but their path can take a few more turns.

The Saints have to beat either the Falcons or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers but hope that Atlanta loses one of its final two and that the Carolina Panthers also lose one of their final two. It's a bit of a windy road over the next two weeks, but five total games will be what determines the NFC South's final rankings.

This is the most crucial of all of them. With a win, the Saints are in the driver's seat, with just the lowly Buccaneers remaining on the schedule. So the Falcons have to make sure they win if they want to keep the Saints out of the playoffs.

They also might be able to help save Mike Smith's job with a division title. But that might be unrealistic, as the Falcons have won just nine of their last 30 games. That's pathetic compared to where they were from 2008 to 2012—a 56-24 record over the five-year span, with two division titles and four playoff appearances.

A win this week would be a huge help for Smith's case. If the Falcons can make the playoffs at a 7-9 record, winning five of their last eight games and his third division title in five years, Smith has much more of a case to stay than otherwise.

Atlanta Falcons Week 15 Recap

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The Falcons lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers, 27-20, in a close game that could have potentially been won at the end. Smith decided to not go for it on a 4th-and-2 with 4:37 remaining, and the Falcons never saw the ball again. Without Julio Jones, Atlanta was unable to score enough to make up for Matt Ryan's mistake on the pick-six by William Gay.

The biggest injuries suffered in the game were to nickel cornerback Josh Wilson and starting right guard Jon Asamoah. Wilson hurt his hand, but he looks like he'll be able to play this coming week. Asamoah aggravated a back injury that he sustained against the Green Bay Packers and is questionable.

Atlanta needs to rebound big from the back-to-back losses to the Packers and Steelers. The Falcons have a good team that has shown since the Detroit Lions game in London that it has the talent to make the playoffs, as the team's only losses are by one score. The question is whether the coaching can help make that difference to close the season out.

News and Notes

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Atlanta Needs to Create Turnovers to Win

Atlanta and New Orleans match up so well that in a clean game, both teams will score a ton of points and it will be a shootout. However, if a team can win the turnover battle, then the momentum will swing in favor of that team. D. Orlando Ledbetter of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution quoted Falcons defensive coordinator Mike Nolan on the importance of turnovers.

"It will be very difficult for us to win the game without getting turnovers,” Nolan said. “It’s hard to get them off [Drew] Brees as we all well know. They are in the top five or 10 in every category. Turnovers is one of them that they are not."

Before not registering a single turnover in the past two weeks, the Atlanta defense was able to create 15 turnovers combined over the previous six weeks. At a rate of 2.5 per game, the Falcons were looking like a very opportunistic defense. 

In games in which the defense can create turnovers for Atlanta, the Falcons allow just 21.3 points per game—which would rank 14th—and 379 yards per game. In games in which it can't create turnovers, the Falcons allow 29.8 points per game—which would rank last—and 485 yards per game.

To get those turnovers, Atlanta had better pass rush, as the Falcons had an average of 1.3 sacks, 3.2 hits and 11 hurries in games in which they created turnovers, compared to just 0.8 sacks, 2.2 hits and 10.6 hurries in games they didn't, based on stats derived from Pro Football Focus. The Falcons need to improve based on even the turnover-creating numbers to get Brees to make mistakes.

Jonathan Massaquoi Has To Re-earn Snaps in Practice

Another side of the story to the Jonathan Massaquoi situation came out earlier this week when Nolan spoke with ESPN.com's Vaughn McClure. Essentially, he said that he wanted Massaquoi to earn his reps again in practice before he'd be comfortable with putting him out there on the field:

"

Just being frank with him, as I told Massaquoi just the other day -- and I'm not divulging anything that's secret between the two of us -- but he was playing well, he got hurt (against) Detroit, he came back injured, he hasn't played since, now all of sudden he's well again. That's fine, but now you have to practice that way so we can see that you're well, and get back on the field. And if it's the reps that you're concerned about, in practice, you know, there are scout-team reps to be taken all the time, so you can jump in on anything you want to say, "Look, I'm well. And here's what I can do."

"

Hopefully, this motivated Massaquoi to go back out there and re-earn his game reps. The Falcons need a pass rush, and Massaquoi has been the most effective pass-rusher off the edge by far. If he can get back onto the field in a starting role, it will only help Atlanta's personnel usage.

Massaquoi playing weak-side defensive end would allow for Kroy Biermann's almost-sacks to get some clean-up by the young player out of Troy. It would also allow for Jonathan Babineaux to get more reps on the interior, where his skill set is put to a much better use.

Throughout most of this, Massaquoi has looked like he's in the right, but Nolan did make a great point: Earn your reps through good practice.  

Injury Report

John Bazemore/Associated Press

Pos.	Name	Injury	Wed	Thu	Fri	Game Status
WR	Julio Jones	Hip	DNP	DNP	DNP	Questionable
WR	Roddy White	Knee	DNP	LP	FP	Probable
WR	Harry Douglas	Foot	DNP	LP	FP	Probable
OG	Jon Asamoah	Back	DNP	DNP	DNP	Questionable
CB	Josh Wilson	Hand	FP	FP	FP	Probable
S	William Moore	Foot	DNP	LP	LP	Questionable

*All injury statuses from the Atlanta Falcons' official website.

DNP: Did Not Practice

LP: Limited Participation in Practice

FP: Full Participation in Practice

Robert Alford got put on injured reserve early in the week after he had complications with his wrist. The Falcons brought up Ricardo Allen to compete for some playing time the final two weeks of the season, but Robert McClain should see the time as the starting right cornerback moving forward.

Josh Wilson luckily is probable and should be the starting nickel. However, if he goes down, Allen could see some playing time. William Moore being questionable isn't helpful for the Falcons, but Kemal Ishmael has really broken out in his stead.

The biggest questions come from the wide receiving corps. Julio Jones potentially being out would hurt the Falcons tremendously on deep balls. They fared well against another weak defense vs. the Steelers, but New Orleans has a better pass rush.

The most crucial injury on this report is to Asamoah. Atlanta's offensive line has finally looked like one of the better ones in the NFL with the Jake Matthews, Justin Blalock, James Stone, Asamoah, and Ryan Schraeder grouping. Without Asamoah, Gabe Carimi faces a tough test against the Saints.

X-Factors and Matchups to Watch

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Jake Matthews and Ryan Schraeder vs. Cameron Jordan and Junior Galette

Cameron Jordan and Junior Galette have been the best pass-rushing duo in the NFC this season, as they have combined for 15 sacks, 16 hits and 77 hurries, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required). They have been the top two contributors to New Orleans' pass rush, and stopping them will be crucial for the Falcons to produce on offense.

That's where the Falcons' young, talented offensive tackle pairing comes in. Over the past four weeks, Ryan Schraeder and Jake Matthews have allowed a combined one sack, four hits and 10 quarterback hurries, per Pro Football Focus. That's insanely good protection from a pair of young tackles. They have been able to use their athleticism and strength to give Ryan time—something they need to do again this week.

Julio Jones and Roddy White vs. Keenan Lewis and Terrence Frederick

Jones and White are arguably the best wide receiver tandem in the entire NFC South. If Jones is healthy for this game, no Saints defensive back will be able to cover him. Keenan Lewis had trouble with him the first week of the season when Jones caught seven passes for 116 yards.

If Lewis is on White, then Jones will destroy the young Terrence Frederick. Frederick held up well last week against Marquess Wilson, but he's nothing close to what Jones is. White could also be a unique threat against Frederick, as he has an ability to create separation despite losing a lot of his speed.

Atlanta's Pass Rush vs. New Orleans' Offensive Line

One huge factor in the game will be whether the Falcons can move Drew Brees from his spot behind the offensive line. They have been horrible in pass rush this season, registering a league-worst 16 total sacks on the season. The Falcons will have to rely on interior pressure to really hurt Brees' effectiveness in this game.

Luckily, the offensive line in New Orleans has seen better days. Jahri Evans, Ben Grubbs and Jonathan Goodwin have been showing their age up front and could be dominated if the Falcons decide to put in Ra'Shede Hageman a lot more this week. However, the Falcons aren't trusting their young defensive linemen this year to create pressure, so expect more blitz schemes on the interior than anything else.

Falcons' X-Factor of the Week: Matt Ryan

For the Falcons to win this week, Ryan will have to step up and not make a single mistake. The pick-sixes against the Arizona Cardinals and Steelers will be unacceptable this week. He'll have to be efficient and even figure out a way to incorporate the maligned Levine Toilolo into the offense somehow.

Atlanta needs to get something going, or its season will end on a down note. That's not what a player wants to bring with him into a 2015 offseason that will be huge for the franchise. Ryan is the face of the franchise, but he's going to have to bring everything he has this week for Atlanta to win.

Prediction

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

The Falcons are a sneaky-good team when every facet of the team is working. They won't blow out a battered and bruised Saints team if Jones isn't healthy, and their defense continues to be epically mismanaged by Smith and Nolan.

However, they do match up well with the Saints and should be able to win in a shootout. Assuming the game remains close, the Falcons have the firepower to pull this one out in the end. With William Moore also coming back from injury, they might have just enough tenacity on defense to hold up in the end.

Ryan and Co. should be able to score a lot of points on one of the worst scoring defenses in the NFL, as long as they can maintain a running game and hold up well in pass protection. Atlanta should be able to squeak this one out in the end and make things extremely interesting in Week 17.

Prediction: Atlanta Falcons 45, New Orleans Saints 42

All stats used are from Pro Football Focus' Premium Stats (subscription required), ESPN.com, CFBStats or NFL.com. All combine and pro day info is courtesy of NFLDraftScout.com. All contract information is courtesy of Spotrac and Rotoworld.

Scott Carasik is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. He covers the Atlanta Falcons, college football, the NFL and the NFL draft. He also runs DraftFalcons.com.

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