Heisman Watch 2014: Final Predictions for Award Race

Unlike the College Football Playoff, no controversy surrounds the 2014 Heisman Trophy.

Oregon's Marcus Mariota, Alabama's Amari Cooper and Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon were easy picks for the committee. Names such as Jameis Winston and Dak Prescott, among others, were worthy of consideration.

Truthfully, though, the trio set to take the stage in New York made sure the trust in charge stressed little:

Observers will notice one thing—a lone quarterback makes the list.

That makes it seem like an obvious result rests ahead Saturday night. The lengthy process has given the globe plenty of time to digest all three candidates, so things may wind up closer than most would expect.

Predictions

3. Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin

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Gordon is one of the best backs to take the field in the past decade, but he is stuck in the wrong era. 

The Doak Walker Award already shows that Gordon was the best back by far this season, although some shred of doubt due to a season-ending injury to Georgia's Todd Gurley will always be a topic of discussion.

Regardless, Gordon rushed for 2,336 yards and 26 touchdowns on a 7.6 per-carry average despite every team fully understanding what Wisconsin would attempt to do.

While impressive, the injury to Gurley, losses to LSU and Northwestern and a 59-0 blowout at the hands of Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship show that Gordon simply has shoddy luck. Oklahoma’s Samaje Perine topped his crowning achievement and Heisman moment—smashing NCAA records with 408 yards and four scores against Nebraska—just a few weeks after the fact.

The topper is the position. As former Heisman winner and Badgers back Ron Dayne told Bleacher Report's Adam Kramer, the position is key right now.

“You’re not looking at running backs anymore,” Dayne said. “Everyone’s looking at different positions. It didn’t circle back around yet for him to get the attention that he needed.”

Gordon's accomplishments are awe-inspiring. His productivity in a defensive-minded conference goes against the grain these days. That is part of the problem, as are jaw-dropping performances by the other two finalists.

2. Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama 

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This year's Biletnikoff Award winner was too obvious.

A serious threat to sit alongside Mark Ingram as the only Alabama Heisman Trophy winner, Cooper also defied plenty of conventional wisdom on his way to his status as a finalist.

Remember when Nick Saban's Crimson Tide were a run-first team? Neither does the coach or his top wideout, who caught an SEC-record 115 passes for 1,656 yards and 14 touchdowns. Put it into this context: The team as a whole posted 268 catches for 3,653 yards and 30 touchdowns.

Remember when there was serious cause for concern about quarterback Blake Sims, who was entering his first year as starter? Or how Alabama could not possibly survive the brutal SEC?

Cooper is a huge reason Sims completed 64.8 percent of his passes and posted 26 touchdowns. He came up big in the Iron Bowl with 13 grabs for 224 yards and three scores. Ditto for the SEC Championship with 12 for 83. A showdown with then-No. 1 Mississippi State? Eight for 88 and a score.

Few receivers will replicate what Cooper has done this season. Yet even he concurs that the award is not necessarily something that should come his way.

"Quarterbacks have such a huge responsibility out on the field. Marcus deserves the trophy,” Cooper said, per Zach Braziller of The New York Post. “I haven’t watched him play, but he has thrown only two interceptions. That’s crazy.”

If a player is going to steal the Heisman from Mariota, odds are great it will be Cooper. Even if he does not, though, rest assured the future NFL first-round pick would not stress over a second-place finish.

1. Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon

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Forget the fact that 12 of the last 13 Heisman winners are quarterbacks.

In an alternate history, that number could favor running backs, and Mariota would still be the favorite this year.

Believe the hype. A completion percentage of nearly 70 percent is nothing until observers realize that it comes with 3,783 yards and 38 touchdowns to two interceptions. Add another 669 yards and 14 scores with his legs for good measure.

Production and efficiency such as that is quite rare, regardless of scheme or competition. The numbers are only more impressive when one recalls that key linemen such as Tyler Johnstone and Hroniss Grasu have been in and out of the lineup with serious injuries.

The only knock on Mariota now is the lack of a singular "Heisman moment."

That is quite laughable, really. Arguably, no player entered this season with loftier expectations on his shoulders. How did Mariota respond?

He shredded an elite Michigan State defense for 318 yards and three scores. Stanford demons? Expelled via four total touchdowns. Ditto against Utah. The Civil War saw six total touchdowns go up on the board before yet five more total in the Pac-12 Championship against Arizona, the only team to beat the Ducks this year.

No player was more important to his team. A Heisman moment may be lacking on the resume because it is just too difficult to single out one performance.

Even other finalists seem to agree—Mariota is this year's Heisman winner.

Statistics and info courtesy of ESPN unless otherwise specified.