What to Expect from Colin Kaepernick, 49ers Offense in Week 15

For Colin Kaepernick and the San Francisco 49ers, their Week 15 matchup with the Seattle Seahawks is do or die.

The 49ers face Seattle on the back of losses to the Seahawks and the cross-bay rival Oakland Raiders that have left them needing significant help in order to reach the playoffs for a fourth straight season.

Much of the blame has fallen on Kaepernick's shoulders for two performances that rank among his worst in his NFL career and have seen the Niners' signal-caller throw four interceptions and just one touchdown.

It may seem unlikely given their recent form, but the 49ers simply have to win in Seattle and to do so they will need a strong showing from Kaepernick in the intimidating atmosphere of CenturyLink Field. 

Yet Kaepernick has shown he can perform in Seattle, doing damage through the air and with his legs. He put up 283 total yards in last season's NFC Championship Game that ended with that famous last-gasp interception off a tipped ball from Richard Sherman.

If San Francisco is to be successful in Seattle, it needs the same type of display from Kaepernick. We break down what to expect from him and the offense as the Niners look to stay alive in Week 15.

Breaking Down Kaepernick's Struggles

It hasn't been pretty for Kaepernick in the last two weeks. The onus has been on him to deliver victories, but he has not come close to performing to the necessary standard.

The former Nevada quarterback's problems are not difficult to diagnose. Kaepernick is failing to evade pressure, forcing balls into tight coverage and, in a nutshell, is simply not seeing the field well.

Kaepernick has found it particularly difficult when throwing toward the sidelines. He has completed just seven of 26 attempted passes of 20 yards or more to the left side, tossing one touchdown and two interceptions, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

It is a similar tale on Kaepernick's 22 passes of that distance to the right-hand side, only six of which have been completed for 170 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions.

Those issues in throwing to the sidelines have been encapsulated by two of the picks he has thrown in the previous two games.

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The second interception by Sherman in the Thanksgiving loss to the Seahawks provides the perfect example of Kaepernick's deficiencies. With the pocket collapsing, Kaepernick rolls to the right without keeping his eyes downfield and misses the fact that Vernon Davis is in open space.

Instead of buying time to read the field, Kaepernick attempts to force the ball to Stevie Johnson, who is blanketed by Sherman and gifts Seattle's star corner a pick that sealed the game.

Kaepernick does not learn from that error, though, and commits an almost identical mistake on the first play against Oakland. 

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Late to sense the pressure from Justin Tuck, Kaepernick does not have the time to check the ball down to fullback Bruce Miller in the flat and moves out to the left. Rather than just throwing the ball away, though, Kaepernick tries to loft a pass to Michael Crabtree down the sideline but overthrows the receiver and is again intercepted, this time by strong safety Brandian Ross, immediately putting his team at a disadvantage.

Turning His Form Around

While many may consider it too late in the season for Kaepernick's problems to be fixed, there are steps that can be taken to minimize his issues. However, they require a change in mindset from both quarterback and offensive coordinator Greg Roman.

Throughout the year Roman's game has appeared disjointed and largely focused on developing Kaepernick as a pocket passer and, as a consequence, has neglected one of the Niners' biggest strengths, the running game. 

When he burst onto the scene in 2012, Kaepernick did a huge amount of damage to opposing teams as a runner in the read-option. However, fast forward to the present day and San Francisco is barely utilising the designed run.

As CSN Bay Area's Matt Maiocco points out, Kaepernick is on course to finish the 2014 season with a high number of rushing yards. However, although there is no breakdown of how many of his runs have been called before the snap, it is fair to suggest that most of his yards on the ground have come from scrambles.

The Niners apparent lack of desire to use Kaepernick as a runner is confusing given that his ability with his legs has been pivotal in each of the last two postseason campaigns.

With San Francisco's playoff hopes dwindling, it would be a smart move to shelve the quest to turn Kaepernick into a pocket passer at least until the end of the year. That would allow the 2011 second-round pick to feature as part of a ground attack that still has what it takes to slice through opposing defenses on a consistent basis. 

Starting running back Frank Gore is averaging 4 yards per carry in 2014, yet was afforded only 12 rushing attempts vs. the Raiders, with his lead blocker Miller playing just 17 snaps despite catching the 49ers only touchdown of the game and earning a run-blocking grade of 1.4 from PFF.

Miller's shortage of playing time is even more mystifying than that of Gore, especially when you consider that, as Scout.com's Chris Biderman revealed, all of the 49ers' seven wins have come when the former Central Florida Knight has played 40 percent of the snaps.

It is clear from those numbers that the 31-year-old Gore can still ground down defenses and that the Niners have excelled when they have built the game plan around their all-time leading rusher and his primary blocker.

That duo have always been key to San Francisco's ability to move the ball and have the talent to exert a strong influence of the passing attack against Seattle.

Checkdown throws have not been a big part of the 49er offense during the campaign. However, the ability of Gore and Miller to catch the ball out of the backfield is a safety net worth relying on for a unit that features a quarterback struggling on deep throws and will be minus receiver Stevie Johnson and at least one starting offensive lineman in one of the loudest stadiums in football.

The Niners possess excellent possession receivers in Crabtree and Anquan Boldin and a quarterback in Kaepernick who has been far more successful with intermediate passes over the middle.

In an arena where communication will be severely disrupted and with San Francisco banged up in the trenches, perhaps the best way to make Kaepernick effective at CenturyLink is to put the game in the hands of Gore and mix in quick three-step-drop throws to try to keep an excellent Seahawks defense off balance.

What to Expect

It is of course unlikely that the 49ers will go the whole game without testing Seattle deep. 

Offenses have to try to make opposing defenses respect their long-ball game, something that the 49ers failed to do in the first meeting with the Seahawks in Week 13.

With San Francisco having only four pass plays of 40 yards or more in 2014, that figures to be a difficult goal to achieve. However, if the Niners can get things going on the ground early—particularly through the dynamic threat of Kaepernick—then opportunities for big plays should begin to open up the longer that they are able to stay in contention.

San Francisco's defense is good enough to keep the scores close and was the only reason the 49ers had even a glimmer of a chance of a fight two weeks ago at Levi's Stadium. Deploying a conservative game plan is far from a bad idea. But, taking into account the desperate nature of the situation, the Niners could certainly be forgiven for taking more than a few risks.

Roman and the Niners have held Kaepernick back for the majority of the season in terms of his ability to change games with his legs. But this week the last hope of salvaging their season is effectively on the line, and it would be no surprise to see San Francisco finally loosen the reins and allow him to be the dual-threat who has caused opponents including Seattle so many problems in his NFL career.

All statistics courtesy of NFL.com unless otherwise stated.

Nicholas McGee is a San Francisco 49ers Featured Columnist based in Leeds, England. Follow him on Twitter @nicholasmcgee24.