Rose Bowl 2015: Key Questions in Massive Oregon vs. Florida State Matchup
Some may still hold a grudge against the selection committee for ranking Ohio State fourth, but everybody can agree that the Rose Bowl is a fantastic matchup on paper.
It's hard to create any sort of good vs. evil angle in college football, but Oregon vs. Florida State comes pretty close.
On one side, you've got the Seminoles, led by perhaps the most vilified player in the country, Jameis Winston, and the subject of much discussion for its handling of players' off-field issues. Bleacher Report's Tom Weir wrote that head coach Jimbo Fisher has been a lightning rod for many fans who loathe the 'Noles:
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
"And this isn’t the Florida State that a lot of fans got cozy with when Bobby Bowden ran the program. Bowden was the wise-cracking grandfather-type everyone loves, but Jimbo Fisher often comes off as the arrogant neighbor who wants you to know his new car has more horsepower than yours. For many, Bowden was a wizened-but-wise Yoda, and Fisher is just Darth Vader with a southern accent.
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On the other side stand the Ducks, who play an exciting brand of football and score points for fun. Oregon's also led by reigning Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota, whom NFL.com's Albert Breer described as a "choir boy" in September:
This is one of those games where even fans without a dog in the fight are choosing sides. The committee couldn't have picked a better way to kick off the inaugural College Football Playoff.
Heading into "The Granddaddy of Them All," these three questions continue to linger.
Will Florida State Have to Recover from Another Slow Start?
Perhaps not since Ohio State in 2002 has an unbeaten team had so many brushes with mortality. Florida State's modus operandi is starting games slowly, generally until halftime. Then Fisher makes the necessary adjustments, and the Seminoles transform into a different team in the second half.
So far, the strategy hasn't proven fatal. Miami, Louisville and Notre Dame all held first-half leads against FSU, only to fall. The Hurricanes held a 23-7 edge at one point in the second quarter, while the Cardinals had a 21-point lead in the first.
The problem with taking the first 20-25 minutes to get going against Oregon is twofold.
First, the Ducks can score a ton of points in a short amount of time. On average, they're putting up a point for every 78 seconds of game action.
Ask Utah how quickly Oregon can turn the tide of a game.
The Utes were within a yard of taking a 14-0 lead over the Ducks back in November. Then Kaelin Clay fatefully dropped the ball in celebration before he had actually reached the end zone. Joe Walker recovered and ran the length of the field for the Oregon touchdown. That score sparked a 24-point outburst in the second quarter, and the game invariably swung toward the Ducks.
The other potential problem for Florida State is that Oregon generally doesn't stop scoring in the second half. It's not like the Ducks start out hot and then fizzle as the game unfolds. According to TeamRankings.com, they're third in the country in second-half scoring (20.8 points).
Can Oregon Defense Stifle Jameis Winston?
Giving up a high volume of yards isn't necessarily an indictment of a team's defense. Oregon helps drive that point home.
The Ducks rank 80th in total defense (413.8 YPG); however, according to Football Outsiders' S&P+ rating, they're the 12th-best defensive team in the country.
It's only natural that a defense will give up yards in punches when the offense uses such a quick-strike strategy.
Still, those wins against Washington State, California and UCLA, and the loss to Arizona offer some possible warning signs for Oregon. Those four teams combined to average 526.7 yards when playing the Ducks.
After the Arizona defeat, some fans were calling for defensive coordinator Don Pellum's head.
Jake Zivin of KEZI 9 News in Eugene felt those fans were a little to quick to cast judgment on Pellum:
In general, the Ducks have prevented opposing quarterbacks from playing well above expectations, as Brendan Sonnone of the Orlando Sentinel pointed out:
"The Ducks are experienced going against high-octane passing attacks, but FSU’s pro-style look with this many weapons will present different challenges. Still, Oregon has fared well against QBs with similar passer ratings (UCLA’s Brett Hundley, Michigan State’s Connor Cook, and Cal’s Jared Goff) as Winston’s of 146.96, keeping Hundley to a rating of 131.74, Cook to a rating of 128.53 and Goff to a rating of 132.38. In all instances, these quarterbacks were held to at least one yard below their yard-per-attempt average. [...]
Because Oregon is so aggressive with its blitz packages, quarterbacks are forced to get rid of the ball earlier. This strong secondary closes quickly and tackles well in space, limiting big plays against a lot of these spread offenses.
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It's no secret that Florida State goes about as far as Winston takes them. When he's off, the entire team's off. When Winston's on, he can compensate for whatever issues are affecting the Seminoles on the field.
Throwing Winston out of his comfort zone will be Oregon's No. 1 objective.
Will Oregon Have Problems Protecting Marcus Mariota?
There couldn't have been a more fitting end for Oregon's only loss in 2014. As the Ducks were driving for the potential game-tying score late in the fourth, Mariota was forced out of the pocket and ran right into the reach of Scooby Wright III, who forced a turnover and sealed the win for Arizona.
Oregon's offensive line wasn't dreadful early in the season, but it was clearly an issue. As a result, the Ducks were far too reliant on their Heisman-winning QB doing something incredible. It was the old Bo Jackson Tecmo Bowl strategy.
"The worst thing you want is to have your name in the paper, really, as an offensive lineman or an offensive line coach," said Steve Greatwood, Oregon's offensive line coach, per USA Today's Paul Myerberg. "When we were going through that rough stretch I'd never been interviewed more in my life. That's not really what you want."
Myerberg explained how Greatwood took a more simplistic approach to practices, which allowed the players to focus more on their areas of concern and helped rebuild the confidence of the entire O-line.
"It's something that as a coach you're always kind of trying to decide where to spend your time," Greatwood said. "But if you can't execute fundamentally, then all the Xs and the Os aren't going to help you."
The Arizona game was the nadir for the Oregon offensive line this year, and the entire unit steadily improved as the season unfolded. Just look at the difference between Mariota against the Wildcats in that October loss and then the Pac-12 Championship Game.
| 10/2 | 20/32 | 276 | 2 | 0 | 53.1 | 1 | 0 |
| 12/5 | 25/38 | 313 | 2 | 0 | 66.3 | 33 | 3 |
As a team, Florida State sacked the opposing quarterback just 17 times, good for 107th in the nation. In Mario Edwards Jr. and Eddie Goldman, though, the 'Noles have two players who can wreak havoc on Mariota if Oregon's offensive line regresses to its early-season form.
Goldman was injured in the ACC Championship Game, but Fisher brushed aside any concerns that he'd be out for the Rose Bowl, per Tim Linafelt of Seminoles.com:
Oregon will have back Rimington Trophy finalist Hroniss Grasu to help bolster the interior of the line, which will help allay any concerns Ducks fans have about how the team will handle the FSU front seven.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
