White Sox vs. Tigers: Who Is Now the Team to Beat in the AL Central?

The Chicago White Sox haven’t made the postseason since 2008. The Detroit Tigers have won the American League Central four years running.

They are franchises that have largely occupied separate breaths in the larger MLB conversation for quite some time.

Yet after a flurry of moves this offseason, there is suddenly an argument to be made that the talent imbalance between the White Sox and Tigers has narrowed to the point where the footing may be even.

And if that is the case, then who is the team to beat in the AL Central?

We’ll start by looking at what each club has done on offense to this point in the offseason.

For the White Sox, Rick Hahn added Adam LaRoche to serve as the left-handed protection behind first baseman Jose Abreu in the lineup. It was a shrewd signing by general manager Hahn.  

See, LaRoche is an immense upgrade over Adam Dunn if for no other reason than his career strikeout rate (21.8 percent) is almost seven points lower than Dunn’s (28.6). And, as anyone who’s watched the White Sox over the past four seasons can attest, Dunn was an anchor.

Hahn also signed left fielder Melky Cabrera to a three-year, $42 million contract late Saturday evening. The move was first reported by CBS Chicago's Bruce Levine, and contract terms came from USA Today's Bob Nightengale. He immediately slots into the two-hole and provides legitimacy to the top of the batting order.

STEVE NESIUS/Associated Press/Associated Press

The Tigers, meanwhile, added Anthony Gose from the Toronto Blue Jays to serve as a platoon partner for Rajai Davis in center field, re-signed Victor Martinez and traded for Yoenis Cespedes.

Let's begin with the Gose move, which was curious seeing as how he cost them their No. 1 prospect Devon Travis. That said, the trade does improve the Tigers defense and provides manager Brad Ausmus with a nice platoon fit with Davis. 

Cespedes’ addition could pay big dividends for the offense, or he could be a disappointment, failing to match the numbers Torii Hunter (.286/.319/.446, 113 wRC+) put up last season. Sure, he has a ton of power, but getting on base is as important as hitting home runs, and Cespedes has struggled mightily in that area both of the past two seasons.

Finally, bringing back Martinez was a must. He is simply fantastic at ensuring Miguel Cabrera sees as many pitches as possible and does a tremendous job getting on base. 

So, after all the moves, here are what the 2015 lineups look like through the lens of projected slash line (batting average, on-base percentage and slugging) and weighted runs created (wRC+), using Steamer projections pulled from FanGraphs:

1B	Jose Abreu	.283/.355/.530, 143	Miguel Cabrera	.317/.394/.557, 164
2B	Carlos Sanchez	.259/.306/.341, 80	Ian Kinsler	.266/.322/.412/ 106
SS	Alexei Ramirez	.265/.300/.379, 87	Jose Iglesias	.265/.312/.350, 86
3B	Conor Gillaspie	.255/.319/.393, 97	Nick Castellanos	.270/.320/.414, 105
RF	Avisail Garcia	.273/.317/.426, 106	J.D. Martinez	.273/.323/.461, 118
CF	Adam Eaton	.273/.343/.379, 104	Rajai Davis	.265/.310/.377, 92
LF	Melky Cabrera	.288/.341/.432, 115	Yoenis Cespedes	.268/.319/.467, 118
DH	Adam LaRoche	.239/.343/.434, 116	Victor Martinez	.309/.376/.486, 139
C	Tyler Flowers	.208/.272/.362, 75	Alex Avilla	.230/.331/.374, 101

As you can see, even after the White Sox's activity, the Tigers lineup is superior in almost every sense. And, while risky, the additions of Gose and Cespedes give manager Brad Ausmus a lineup that is more athletic than last year's.

Now while the Tigers hold a rather distinct advantage offensively, it gets a bit trickier when dissecting the pitching staffs.

Let’s start in the bullpen. 

On the South Side, Hahn completely revamped the unit that finished with the second-worst FIP (4.22) and third-worst ERA (4.38) in MLB. It was flat-out awful, blowing 21 saves in 57 chances, per ESPN.com.

He added left-handers Zach Duke and Dan Jennings and signed an elite closer in David Robertson. Each was an identified area of opportunity going into the offseason, and each allows manager Robin Ventura and pitching coach Don Cooper to use other arms out there—Jake Petricka and Zach Putnam, for example—more effectively.

True, the projections don’t reflect it, but this is a much-improved unit.

In Detroit, things are, um, the same(ish).

Sure, Phil Coke is no longer around, which makes the unit better by subtraction, but he has been replaced by Joel Hanrahan, who hasn’t thrown in the major leagues since 2013. And general manager Dave Dombrowski still has 40-year-old right-hander Joe Nathan in line to handle the ninth-inning. Now there were stretches last season when Nathan was filthy, but those periods figure to be fewer in number in 2015.

Paul Sancya/Associated Press/Associated Press

As it stands, Dombrowski is going to count on two pitchers who didn’t open the season with the Tigers last year to play huge roles—Bruce Rondon and Joakim Soria. According to Dombrowski, the presence of Rondon and Soria means the relief corps is “appreciably better right off the bat than what it was” last season, via Chris Iott from MLive.com.

We shall see. He could be right, of course. The group could also crater, putting the club in exactly the same situation it was in last year—with a bullpen that doesn’t complement the offense or starting rotation.

Speaking of which, the rotation is where it gets interesting. Here is a quick look at Steamer's ERA, FIP and fWAR projections for the starters currently on each 25-man roster:

Chris Sale, LH	3.02, 3.07, 4.7	David Price, LH	3.24, 3.23, 4.0
Jeff Samardzija, RH	3.93, 3.69, 3.1	Justin Verlander, RH	4.03, 4.17, 2.1
Jose Quintana, LH	3.95, 3.89, 2.4	Anibal Sanchez, RH	3.80, 3.59, 2.6
John Danks, LH	5.01, 4.89, 0.4	Alfredo Simon, RH	4.89, 4.79, 0.4
Hector Noesi, RH	5.04, 5.02, 0.2	Shane Greene, RH	4.63, 4.38, 0.9

In Chicago, things were already solid going into this offseason with Chris Sale and Jose Quintana. Both are young, left-handed and in MLB's upper echelon.

Sale pitched to a 12-4 record with a 2.17 ERA and 2.57 FIP and finished third in AL Cy Young voting last season. And Quintana is about as consistent as they come, posting a 3.32 ERA and a fine 2.81 FIP over 200.1 innings. They were just spectacular.

Add in right-hander Jeff Samardzija, who was acquired from the Oakland A’s in a six-player deal during the winter meetings, and the White Sox suddenly have three of the top 15 pitchers in MLB based on 2014 fWAR (FanGrpahs version of wins above replacement), per FanGraphs.

The Tigers, on the other hand, have gone the other way—to a degree. True, they may end up making a run at free-agent prize Max Scherzer, but the chances are slim given the club’s payroll—although ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden disagrees (subscription required).

Paul Sancya/Associated Press/Associated Press

What they do have is a solid, if unspectacular, group of hurlers after left-hander David Price and righty Anibal Sanchez. That is not meant to demean Justin Verlander, but he isn’t the same pitcher he was two seasons ago.

Making matters worse is that Dombrowski traded Rick Porcello in order to acquire Cespedes. Let’s not forget that Porcello put up a 3.67 FIP and 1.231 WHIP over 204.2 innings last season. That’s a large void to fill.

Now, in an effort to offset the loss, Dombrowski added Alfredo Simon (15-10, 3.44 ERA) from the Cincinnati Reds toward the end of the winter meetings.

At first blush, it looks like a solid move, given Simon's raw metrics, but there are legitimate question marks. In an article for Fox Sports, FanGraphs’ Jeff Sullivan had this to say:

"

Simon was a first-half surprise in 2014, and he finished the year with a 3.44 ERA over 32 starts. However, ERA isn't the best indicator of pitching ability, and Simon's other indicators are a lot less shiny. According to numbers like FIP and xFIP, Simon actually pitched like a below-average starter, and his ERA was kept down by a little bit of luck and a lot of good defense. By the metric Defensive Runs Saved, the Reds had the best team defense in baseball. By Ultimate Zone Rating, they were fourth. Simon got help, is the point, and at 33 years old, it's not like he has a lot of upside.

"

That leads us to the defenses.

Each club is rather unpolished on the defensive side. True, Ramirez is a Gold Glove-caliber shortstop and Jose Iglesias is quite good. The same can be said for Miguel Cabrera, who is a fine first baseman when he is able to move laterally, and Adam Eaton, who covers a ton of ground in center field when he’s not running into a wall or on the disabled list after sliding headfirst into first base.

By and large, however, each unit has holes. That makes the improvements the White Sox made to their bullpen and rotation all the more valuable. It also means that the additions of Gose's range and Cespedes' arm will help quite a bit in Detroit.

So all told, the White Sox certainly closed the gap between the two clubs, but the Tigers remain the team to beat. Simply put, their offense tips the scale.

Everything has to go perfectly, of course. After all, their farm system, which was bad to begin with, is even thinner after Dombrowski executed those trades. That means if a key player goes down to injury or a pitcher fails to live up to expectation, there is no Plan B.

Now, none of this is meant to overlook the other teams in the division.

The Cleveland Indians have a fantastic rotation, solid bullpen and traded for Brandon Moss to upgrade the batting order. Oh, and Terry Francona is one heck of a manager.

The Kansas City Royals went to the 2014 World Series and have a bullpen and defense that is lock-down dominant. And the Minnesota Twins added Ervin Santana and Torii Hunter to the 25-man roster and tabbed Paul Molitor to manage. 

In other words, the Central is no joke. 

It’s going to be a fun ride. 

Unless otherwise noted, all traditional, team and advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs.com. Transaction, injury and game information are courtesy of MLB.com.

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