Green Bay Packers vs. Buffalo Bills: Complete Week 15 Preview for Green Bay
The last Green Bay saw of neck-bearded Kyle Orton, he was putting a stop to a 19-game winning streak that included a Super Bowl championship and one of the greatest starts to a season in NFL history.
It was Week 15 of the 2011 season, as Packers.com editor Vic Ketchman points out: Orton’s 5-8 Chiefs vs. Aaron Rodgers’ 13-0 Packers. The result? A stunning 19-14 defeat, Green Bay’s lone regular-season loss.
The 2014 Green Bay Packers (10-3) will look to avoid a similar Week 15 result when they travel to Ralph Wilson Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bills (7-6) at 1:00 p.m. ET Sunday in another matchup between the 2005 NFL draftees.
Offensively, points have been hard to come by. The Bills have failed to score 20 points on seven occasions and rank No. 22 in offensive yardage. However, Orton has seen it all in his 79 starts with five teams over 10 seasons, a notion echoed by Packers head coach Mike McCarthy:
"McCarthy on #Bills QB Kyle Orton: He has a complete understanding of the offense. Can make all the throws.
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) December 10, 2014"
Buffalo provides the best defensive test for the hot Green Bay offense since Detroit in Week 3. Led by a fearsome pass rush, the Bills have limited opposing quarterbacks to less than 165 passing yards per game the last seven weeks.
Week 14 Recap
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Leading 31-7 at halftime against the lowly Falcons, the Packers just needed to go through the motions for the final 30 minutes to come out with their 10th win of the season.
Or at least that’s what the defense thought.
Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan fired four second-half touchdown passes in Green Bay’s 43-37 win over the Falcons on Monday Night Football, giving Packers fans a fright in what was supposed to be another blowout victory.
"Felt like the #Packers defense took an obvious step forward last week vs. NE. This is at least one step back.
— Zach Kruse (@zachkruse2) December 9, 2014"
After the defense played so well in the 26-21 win over Tom Brady’s Patriots a week prior, it was disheartening to see little-to-no resistance put up against receiver Julio Jones, who set yet another personal best with 259 receiving yards.
"Julio Jones is now leading the NFL in receiving yards. He was sixth two hours ago.
— Michael David Smith (@MichaelDavSmith) December 9, 2014"
But, in the end, Rodgers and the offense were able to effectively run out the clock with ball in hand for the third straight week, and winning is all that matters.
News and Notes
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Shields Shielded
Battling a concussion suffered in the Week 13 home win over New England, Sam Shields said the lack of practice snaps leading up to the Falcons game negatively affected his play, writes the Journal Sentinel’s Tom Silverstein.
"I needed a couple reps," he said. "That probably would’ve helped out. It happens. I was in there, I got back on the field (and) that was the most important part. I’m getting reps this week and I’ll be ready for Buffalo.”
Shields is not on the injury report this week and is practicing at full strength.
In or Out?
Clay Matthews’ future lies on the outside, not inside, argues Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Press-Gazette. Though Dougherty contends that the move has improved the Packers’ chances of winning Super Bowl XLIX, Matthews is a pass-rusher, and you win games in today’s NFL by getting to the passer.
Green Bay has given up 90.2 yards rushing per game since Matthews’ shift inside compared to 153.5 yards in the first eight games, according to Dougherty.
Peppers: Defense Needs Pep
It’s now or never—that’s the message delivered by Packers outside linebacker Julius Peppers after practice Thursday, according to Packers.com writer Mike Spofford.
“This is one of those weeks,” Peppers said. “We’ve got to raise the focus; we’ve got to raise the sense of urgency, because now is the time we need to be stepping on the gas, not letting off it.” Peppers was not worried about the performance versus the Falcons, saying the defense just had "a bad half of football."
Injury Report
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| Player | Position | Injury Status |
| Bruce Gaston (Illness) | DT | Probable |
| Davon House (Shoulder) | CB | Out |
| Eddie Lacy (Hip) | RB | Probable |
| T.J. Lang (Ankle) | G | Probable |
| Jamari Lattimore (Ankle) | LB | Out |
| Nick Perry (Shoulder) | LB | Probable |
| Josh Sitton (Toe) | G | Probable |
Injury statuses courtesy Packers.com.
Eddie Lacy suffered a hip pointer on his final carry of the win over Atlanta, and his Week 15 status is in doubt.
"I just planted and tried to cut back upfield and get vertical, after I ran into those two big dudes," he told the Journal Sentinel's Tom Silverstein. "I bounced outside and when I planted on my left leg to push off it (was when it happened)."
"#Packers RB Eddie Lacy says he has hurdles before being cleared. Said he won't put the team at a disadvantage if he can't play effectively.
— Tom Silverstein (@TomSilverstein) December 11, 2014"
Davon House banged his shoulder on Julio Jones' knee on a play in the end zone, and he too will be iffy for Sunday's contest.
"More tests are coming on Davon House's shoulder. MM: "Hopefully not as bad as initially thought."
— Michael Rodney (@PackerUpdate) December 11, 2014"
McCarthy confirmed at Friday's press conference that House will be a no-go for Sunday.
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X-Factor and Matchups to Watch
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Buffalo’s Pass Rush vs. Green Bay’s Offensive Line
This should be one of the best matchups in Week 15.
The Bills defense line is arguably the best in football. It leads the NFL with 48 sacks and sacks opposing quarterbacks on 9.6 percent of dropbacks, easily the best figure in pro football. The Bills are the only team with three players among the league’s top 12 in sacks, according to the Green Bay Press-Gazette’s Ryan Wood. Mario Williams (12) Marcell Dareus (10) and Jerry Hughes (9.5) are all having sensational years.
The Pack O-line is another outstanding unit.
"No interior O-line better protecting QB than Sitton, Linsley & Lang. +35.4 grade by far NFL-best. Rank #1, #8 & #3 at respective positions
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) December 11, 2014"
The way to beat any good quarterback is to get pressure with just four, and the Bills most certainly have the personnel to do so. But the Packers have the guys to stop them.
Green Bay’s Secondary vs. Buffalo’s Passing Offense
Kyle Orton will never be mentioned as elite, Pro-Bowl worthy or even among the above-average quarterbacks. But given his opportunities, he’ll take advantage of mistakes the way only a talented veteran can.
When Orton led the 5-8 Chiefs to their monumental upset over the 13-0 Packers in 2011, he played sensational football. He led five clock-killing scoring drives (Kansas City held the ball for 36 minutes, 11 seconds), completed 74 percent of his passes at a 9.6 yards-per-attempt clip, and most importantly, he didn’t turn the ball over.
There’s a reason Orton has been on five teams—he’s not a legitimate NFL starting quarterback, but he can win games in this league if you let him. And if the Packers secondary plays anything like it did against Atlanta, Green Bay could be in for a long day versus Orton, Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods.
X-Factor: Fred Jackson
The Rodney Dangerfield of the running back position, Fred Jackson never gets any respect. Jackson—who never started a varsity game on his high school team and spent the prime of his youth with teams like the Sioux City Bandits, making $200 per week—has already set a career high in receptions at 33 years old (53). He’s done it despite missing two games and playing with two different quarterbacks.
Jackson is a true three-down back, and he’s a main feature of the offense, especially with C.J. Spiller on injured reserve and Jackson a few weeks removed from a groin injury.
"Bills game plan: Fred Jackson run, screen to Fred Jackson, screen to Fred Jackson, Fred Jackson run, screen to Fred Jackson
— Mike Rodak (@mikerodak) December 7, 2014"
Targeted a team-high 14 times in Buffalo’s Week 14 loss at Denver, Jackson could wreak havoc on Green Bay’s linebackers if not properly accounted for.
Prediction
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Road games against teams with stingy defenses scare me.
The signs pointing to a Packers loss are there: Orton’s history against Green Bay, the Packers' recent struggles on defense and a team that’s suffered its only three losses on the road.
But, while the Packers’ three most recent victories haven’t been the most impressive—wins by three, four and six points—they prove that this team knows how to win.
"McCarthy: Buffalo is a tough place to play. This will be a big challenge for our guys. They'll be ready. #Packers
— Green Bay Packers (@packers) December 9, 2014"
It's a tough place to play indeed, with Green Bay never having won in five trips.
But the sixth time is the charm.
Prediction: Packers 27, Bills 20.
Odds by Odds Shark: Green Bay (-4.5)
Follow me on Twitter @PeterSowards.
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