Cotton Bowl 2015: Keys to Victory in Michigan State vs. Baylor Clash
Baylor coach Art Briles will probably still be complaining about his team’s exclusion from the College Football Playoff by the time the 2015 Cotton Bowl rolls around on Jan. 1 at 12:30 p.m. ET, but that doesn’t take any of the luster off this marquee showdown.
The Bears will represent the Big 12 against the Michigan State Spartans from the Big Ten in something of a New Year’s Day appetizer before the playoff games begin.
It is a showdown between a high-flying offense and a stout defense, and Mark Schlabach of ESPN.com ranked it as the best bowl game of the season outside of the two College Football Playoff showdowns:
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"The Bears are peeved about being left out of the College Football Playoff, but they should be motivated to make amends for their flop in a 52-42 loss to Central Florida in the Fiesta Bowl last season. It will be a matchup of very contrasting styles: Baylor's high-octane offense against Michigan State's menacing defense.
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With that in mind, here is a look at some of the keys to victory.
Home-Field Advantage?
The Cotton Bowl takes place in Arlington, Texas, which is less than a two-hour drive from Baylor’s campus. It is much further from East Lansing, which is probably why Baylor Football’s Twitter account was able to send this out:
There’s nothing like some good old fashioned ticket allotment trolling before a marquee bowl game to let fans know there is too much time between the end of the season and the bowls.
The potential for a home-field advantage effect for the Bears may not seem like that big a deal on the surface, but Baylor is going to need some energy from the crowd early in this one to overcome any lingering disappointment or lack of motivation after narrowly missing out on the College Football Playoff.
It is easy to forget that there is a game to play against a Top 10 opponent in the aftermath.
The Bears didn’t garner much respect nationally this season and were the lowest ranked one-loss Power Five conference team for portions of the year, despite the head-to-head win against TCU. A victory over the same Michigan State program that spent much of the season in the Top 10 and beat Stanford in last year’s Rose Bowl would be a good way to grab some headlines before the 2015 season begins.
It will be easier to do that in front of a favorable crowd that will make life difficult on the Michigan State offense.
Michigan State’s Defense vs. Baylor’s Offense
The narrative surrounding this game is the matchup between Michigan State’s defense, which finished second in the Big Ten and 12th nationally in points allowed per game (19.9), and Baylor’s high-octane offense, which led the nation in points per game (48.8) and yards per game (581.3).
On paper, this is a strength vs. strength matchup, but Michigan State looked incredibly vulnerable against the two offenses it faced this season that most closely resemble Baylor’s. Ohio State torched the Spartans for 49 points and 568 total yards, while Oregon posted 46 points and tallied 491 yards in its early-season statement win over Michigan State.
That fact alone likely has Bryce Petty, who was 11th in the country in passing efficiency and threw for 3,305 yards and 26 touchdowns, fired up to face the Spartans.
Petty’s favorite target is wide receiver Corey Coleman, who tallied 969 receiving yards and 10 touchdown catches and was eighth nationally with 107.7 yards per game. Throw in running back Shock Linwood as the overlooked game-changer for the Bears who finished with 1,226 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground, and Michigan State has its hands full.
However, it’s not just the raw scoring numbers that were impressive about Michigan State’s defense. It held opponents to a meager 3.43 yards per rush and 30.54 percent on third-down conversions, via CFBStats.com, and it also forced 21 fumbles and recovered 16 of them.
Interestingly, 2013 Big Ten Defensive Lineman of the Year, Shilique Calhoun said his team would rather face Baylor than Georgia Tech, which was another potential bowl opponent for the Spartans, via Mike Griffith of MLive.com:
"Everyone has seen Georgia Tech's veer triple option offense, and I don't think a lot of us wanted to play against that. We would have went out and competed in the best way we could, but I think that playing against Baylor will be a lot more fun because it's more like our offense. Three-step drops, shot gun -- that will be more fun for us because we played against it numerous times each and every day in practice.
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Baylor’s defense was stronger this season than in past years (43rd nationally in points allowed per game), but it gave up 58 points to TCU and 46 to Texas Tech.
The Michigan State offense that quietly finished seventh in the nation in points per game (not that far behind the vaunted Baylor attack) should be able to score early and often against the Bears. If the Spartans defense can rack together a few stops in a row against Petty and company, Connor Cook, Jeremy Langford and Tony Lippett could open up a nice lead.
That may just be enough to win the Cotton Bowl.
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