San Francisco 49ers Can Only Be Salvaged Through Sweeping Change

The San Francisco 49ers are an inferno of ineptitude right now, a raging fire with several points of origin. At this point all emergency personnel need to be called off. Tell the fire trucks to turn around.

There will be no saving this deeply fractured team this season. So just let it burn.

When it’s safe to walk among the rubble of a wasted season, the charred remains to be discarded will include head coach Jim Harbaugh. His departure through either a mutual agreement (technically a firing) or an unlikely trade will be the most significant and inevitable change.

That will only be a starting point. As you watch the 49ers continue to burn with the flames rising to previously unimaginable heights after a loss to the Oakland Raiders (a team that had been pummeled 52-0 the week before), know there are many guilty arsonists.

When Harbaugh’s coaching career ends he’ll be remembered as the NFL’s Steve Jobs: a genius, but an overbearing one who needs full control over his environment and therefore a head coach vagabond who never stays long in one place.

But although Harbaugh may have ultimately tossed the match to ignite this season, the flaws and need for a completely different direction run much deeper.

It all starts with five large men.

The 49ers offensive line has gone from a strength to a weakness

Defensively the 49ers have been surprisingly impressive despite injuries that should have been crushing (most notably, the absence of middle linebackers Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman). But offensively, a state of disarray has prevailed on multiple fronts.

We’ll get to quarterback Colin Kaepernick and his career that may be at the early stages of its drain-circling in a moment.

Kaepernick is responsible for most of his problems, but poor blocking hasn’t helped a quarterback who doesn’t have natural field vision. It’s also led to a declining running game, which was once the 49ers’ heartbeat.

Kaepernick has been sacked a league-high 43 times. With three games remaining he’s already sailed past his previous career single-season high of 39 sacks and will shatter that mark by the time this season mercifully ends.

This is the point when I’m obligated to mention the standard injury disclaimer, as continuity—the lifeblood of any offensive line—was disrupted up front when center Daniel Kilgore’s season ended after only seven games due to a broken leg. Guard Mike Iupati has missed time too, and right tackle Anthony Davis has appeared in only five games while battling several issues.

But injuries alone can’t be used to shrug off the constant duress Kaepernick has faced. Even though Jonathan Martin has mostly resembled air while attempting to replace Davis, he’s still only been responsible for six sacks, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

A lack of green space opened by the O-line has also resulted in a sputtering rushing offense, which was previously the 49ers’ offensive oxygen. San Francisco is averaging 24.1 fewer rushing yards per game this season compared to 2013.

Meanwhile, Kaepernick has been pressured on 37 percent of his dropbacks, the league's sixth-highest total, per PFF. Of course there’s also the matter of avoiding those sacks even in the face of intense pressure, which should be a little easier for a quarterback who’s familiar with the art of running.

That brings us back to the state of Kaepernick's plunging career.

Kaepernick may not be the quarterback of the future after all

Kaepernick was always going to be a project. He was always going to need time to develop and eventually learn when his athleticism should be utilized to get creative if all seems lost and when he needs to dutifully scan the field before making the right decision.

But too often he’s still not doing either of those things.

Just for fun, let’s compare Kaepernick to another quite mobile quarterback who plays in the same division—and his general approach to the position is similar. Note the difference in how the two handle pressure.

Player	Dropbacks while under pressure	% of pressure resulting in sacks
Colin Kaepernick	180	23.3
Russell Wilson	204	15.2

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson also isn’t playing behind an offensive line that makes him comfortable. But Wilson uses his mobility to find space and a better throwing angle. Kaepernick often leans on his only as a default survival instinct.

You can see that in the difference between their throwing mechanics when on the run. Whereas Wilson squares up to his target even with chaos around him, Kaepernick is frequently off-balance and leaning on one foot.

Kaepernick does indeed face plenty of pressure due to the aforementioned offensive line leaks. But he’s still given plenty of time to make plays. On average he’s had 2.88 seconds to throw, per PFF. That’s the league’s sixth-highest average time in the pocket among quarterbacks who have taken at least 50 percent of their team’s snaps.

The problem with Kaepernick is that in the pocket, time is his enemy. When he’s given more than 2.6 seconds his passer rating falls from 90.6 to 76.6, per PFF. That reflects both his inability to make proper decisions in the pocket and a tendency to lean purely on instincts instead of vision while under pressure.

Kaepernick throws the ball with authority, hoping it either gets to his receiver or a defender disintegrates when attempting an interception. A heavy reliance on reacting instead of reading has contributed greatly to the downfall of an offense that’s averaged only 14.7 points since Week 7.

Kaepernick has also completed only four of his 24 attempts on balls traveling at least 10 yards downfield over the past two weeks, per PFF (h/t Paul Gutierrez of ESPN.com). That leads us to another critical flaw…

There’s been so very little downfield separation

Among 49ers receivers with at least 20 receptions (a generous cutoff point after Week 14, though it excludes wide receiver Brandon Lloyd. Anquan Boldin leads the group with 12.5 yards per catch, and Michael Crabtree follows behind him at only 10.5 per grab.

For perspective, of the NFL’s current top 15 pass-catchers by receiving yardage, only two have a per-catch average below 13.0.

But that only tells a partial story when we’re discussing a lack of deep balls because a per-catch average can be inflated by yards after the catch. Fighting for those is how Boldin and Crabtree thrive, but at some point an offense manned by a bazooka-armed quarterback needs to test deep areas of the field.

And it’s just not happening due to both poor scheming and personnel.

As Sports Illustrated's Doug Farrar notes, 49ers offensive coordinator Greg Roman has veered far away from a passing game rooted in play action during previous successful seasons. That capitalized on overzealous defenders and created space downfield.

With bye weeks a memory, every team has played 13 games this year, enough time for 89 wide receivers to catch at least one pass that traveled 20-plus yards through the air, per PFF.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers rookie wide receiver Mike Evans leads that category with 18 such receptions, and the Atlanta Falcons' Julio Jones is right behind him at 16. Where do Crabtree, Boldin and Lloyd rank? Tied for 36th with five apiece.

So, what should be tossed in the fire?

Harbaugh’s coaching staff will likely leave with him, which is common practice.

Roman can’t be pushed out soon enough. He’s leading an offense that lacks an identity and often hasn’t put Kaepernick in a position to succeed.

Crabtree is surely gone as a free agent after the worst contract year imaginable, or he’ll be available at a discount with his plunging value.

Running back Frank Gore is playing his final games as a Niner too, and retaining Iupati will probably be too expensive because of his (likely successful) quest to become the highest-paid guard in league history.

The sweet cashed saved between those three could then be used to dive into the wide receiver free-agent pool if one of the many premier wideouts on expiring contracts hits the open market (Randall Cobb? Jeremy Maclin?).

That’s how the offensive shift could start both with the chess pieces available and the minds moving them in the booth and on the sideline.

But will Kaepernick’s 49ers future meet a fiery death too? Remember, the contract extension he signed last offseason came with a year-to-year structure and only just over $13 million guaranteed, per ProFootballTalk.

The question would have been absurd a year ago. Now his development has been stalled, and instead regression has taken over. A change won’t happen in the short term simply because there’s no safety net behind Kaepernick, and the 49ers won’t be in a position to draft an immediate replacement.

But the new head coach will recognize a reality fast: His job security is tied to a quarterback whose growth has been stunted.

A new coach means a new direction and a new offensive scheme. It’s not difficult to see a future with Kaepernick viewed as an old solution to a problem that still lingers.