Dolphins vs. Patriots: Breaking Down Miami's Game Plan

It’s Week 15 of the NFL season, and the Miami Dolphins have a chance to stay relevant in the playoff race as well as defeat their divisional nemesis, the New England Patriots. Entering the game at 7-6, Miami is still in the AFC playoff picture, but it now has immense pressure to defeat the Patriots in Foxborough, which has only happened once since 2006.

The Dolphins have been trending downward lately, losing three of the last five games. Miami now needs help to reach the playoffs, but if it does not defeat the Patriots, all playoff talk will be moot anyway.

On the other hand, the only team the Patriots have lost to since September 29 is the Green Bay Packers. New England is a much different team than the one Miami ran through in Week 1 and so are the Dolphins.

Miami’s biggest issue right now is its injury situation. According to Chris Perkins of the Sun Sentinel, linebackers Koa Misi and Jelani Jenkins missed practice on Wednesday with hamstring and foot injuries respectfully. Defensive tackle Randy Starks also missed practice, per Omar Kelly of the Sun Sentinel.

Those players are added to an injury list that included Charles Clay, Cortland Finnegan, Jonathan Freeny, Nate Garner, Brian Hartline and Jamar Taylor, per the Miami Dolphins' website.

A victory won’t be easy, but let’s take a look at the game plan that could lead to a sorely needed Dolphins victory on Sunday.

When Miami Is on Offense

The Dolphins offense has gone into a tailspin recently for multiple reasons. Since Branden Albert’s season-ending injury, the Dolphins’ coaching staff has continued to play Dallas Thomas at right tackle. Thomas was showing improvement as a guard prior to the injury, but his stint at tackle has crippled the passing offense.

Thomas has been unable to hold up in pass protection on his own, allowing a whopping four sacks and eight quarterback hurries in the last three weeks, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Instead of helping Thomas succeed by giving a running back or tight end dedicated to his side of the field, the Dolphins continue to block edge-rushers like Von Miller, Mario Williams and Elvis Dumervil with one person.

"

Philbin,asked if he had better option than Dallas Thomas,answers how he answers lineup questions for 3yrs:We played who gives us best chance

— Barry Jackson (@flasportsbuzz) December 7, 2014"

Philbin’s insistence on playing Thomas over backups should come as no surprise because of his demonstrated stubbornness in the past, but it could cost Miami its season because of the way the offense struggles to function with him in the game. Simply put, unless Thomas plays better, the Dolphins will again be unable to score at a sufficient pace.

There are ways to mitigate Thomas’ issues in pass protection that fit Miami’s strengths. After a good start to his tenure in Miami, offensive coordinator Bill Lazor has hit a bit of a cold spell, as he’s been unable to adjust to life without a decent offensive line.

Despite having one of the best running attacks in the league, Lazor routinely abandons the run game in the second half of games. This puts greater pressure on the passing offense, offensive line and the defense to make plays.

"

Joe Philbin said the key to Miami's offensive success is to have more "manageable third downs."

— Omar Kelly (@OmarKelly) December 10, 2014"

To help the passing game, Lazor can also utilize one of the better athletes at quarterback in the league on rollouts and play-action passes. Ryan Tannehill has been making great plays this season on such plays, but why Miami only runs two or so a game is baffling and inefficient.

Looking at the Patriots defense, it's been playing very well against some of the best quarterbacks in the league lately. With a secondary featuring Darrelle Revis and Devin McCourty, it’s not easy to find wide-open passing windows. New England's run defense is solid due to the play of Vince Wilfork, Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower.

"

Lazor doesn't quibble with notion that Dolphins need to run Lamar Miller more. "We're at our best when we're balanced," he said.

— Barry Jackson (@flasportsbuzz) December 8, 2014"

It seems like every week this is a key, but to get the most out of their offense, the Dolphins must run the ball and stay balanced. Running plays keep the linebackers closer to the line of scrimmage, and Lamar Miller has been tremendous this season at pressing the running lane then bouncing for a cutback lane. He creates extra yards very well with his talents.

At some point, Lazor must realize that Miller is 225 pounds and not a scat back who is unable handle a solid workload. The Patriots defense is vulnerable to overpursuing on run plays, so that’s the best way to maintain possession of the ball and score.

When Miami Is on Defense

The Patriots don’t have a great offense, but they do have Rob Gronkowski. He’s played great football this season, totaling 997 yards and 10 touchdowns this year. If Miami is without Jenkins and Misi, that means Kevin Coyle must use Dion Jordan or Jordan Tripp if Miami wants any chance to slow down Gronkowski.

Miami also must stop the three-game trend of poor run and pass defense. Injuries make it hard to count on guys like R.J. Stanford, but the once-fearsome pass rush has all but disappeared recently. That has to change this week.

Cameron Wake seems to have been slowed after a couple of cheap shots against the Denver Broncos and New York Jets, and the entire defense has changed because of it. He is Miami’s ultimate weapon, and without his great play, Olivier Vernon hasn’t stepped up. Unless those two set the tone, it’ll be a long game for Miami.

The run defense played better for three quarters against the Baltimore Ravens last week but looked fatigued when the Ravens worked to run out the game clock. Miami allowed three runs of more than 24 yards in the final frame after showing signs that the unit had recovered from the two prior performances.

Facing power backs LeGarrette Blount and Jonas Gray, Miami could be in for another long game. The defense just seems tired and unable to hold up for 30 minutes a game. So much has been asked of the defensive front four, and for a while, it played well enough to win. Now, the lack of quality linebackers beside Jenkins really shows, and the secondary hasn’t been as opportunistic as it needs to be.

Prediction

Considering how well the Patriots have played recently and Miami’s injury issues, it’s hard to see the Dolphins overcoming such a dramatic mismatch on the field. Miami’s coaching staff has failed to change its schemes and personnel despite the on-field results lately, and poor coaching cannot overcome Bill Belichick’s talent as a game-planner.

A win this week for the Dolphins would be a major upset. Since injuries are piling up and the Dolphins are regressing again in December, it’s hard to predict a victory.

Patriots 35, Dolphins 13

All stats used are from Sports-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Ian Wharton is a Miami Dolphins Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report, contributor for Optimum Scouting and analyst for eDraft. 

Follow @NFLFilmStudy