Exploring Chicago Bulls' Regular-Season Ceiling
There’s still considerable time left before the 2014-15 NBA season concludes, but a sufficient amount of games has been completed to hypothesize where the Chicago Bulls could end up after the last regular-season buzzer sounds.
Despite positional upgrades and added quality depth, Tom Thibodeau’s bunch is playing like a team looking to slate itself firmly in the middle of the postseason pack. That kind of achievement was a testament to the Bulls' pride the preceding couple of years; however, it is nothing short of underwhelming with a collection of talent that includes an apparently healed Derrick Rose.
If this club were a scientific term, they would be potential energy, as the expected domination has yet to be realized.
The current Bulls assemblage was supposed to be a team the excelled on both sides of the ball. The group shed a matador in Carlos Boozer and added rim protector Pau Gasol, replacing the most glaring chink in their defensive armor.
General manager Gar Forman drafted a lights-out shooter in Doug McDermott and brought over the European offensive phenom Nikola Mirotic. It is hard to see why things haven’t been going better for the Bulls, and they seem to be on the verge of falling from title contender to perpetual playoff team if things don’t shape up.
The proceeding is a projection of where the Bulls could finish in terms of divisional standing and conference seeding, should the current trends continue. It will include points about what has worked well, what has not succeeded and what variables could influence the team’s fortune.
Accentuating the positive
The Bulls may not be winning as prolifically as some may have expected, but they are still comfortably over .500 and within striking distance of the lead in the Central Division. There are also some things going a lot better for this group than in years past—most notably team scoring.
Right now, Chicago is averaging 102.7 points per game. That is nine points more than the average of the prior two Rose-less campaigns and four points more than the previous high mark under Coach Thibodeau of 98.6 points, set during his inaugural campaign.
Like last year, this bunch includes six players averaging double figures, and two are on the second unit. The major difference is in the production coming from the shooting guard and power forward positions.
Gasol is proving to be an upgrade over his predecessor in every sense. He is giving the Bulls six more points, four more rebounds and 1.5 more blocks than the preceding starter did in 2013-14. Actually, those numbers top every one of Boozer’s seasons in Chicago.
As for Jimmy Butler, how much more praise can the breakout player receive? The former Marquette Golden Eagle is averaging 21.5 points per game—a little over eight points more than last season. He is attacking the rim, shooting an efficient 54 percent on his two-point shot attempts and taking nearly nine free throws per game.
The elevated play of these two has propelled the Bulls offense to a new plane. They have broken the century mark 14 times so far—a feat that didn’t happen last season until February 26.
This is pretty great considering that Rose is still finding his in-game rhythm, but basketball games are not merely scoring contests. There is also the task of preventing the opponent from putting the ball into the basket, and it is in that area that the Bulls have wavered the most.
Some not-so-good news
There are two sides to every coin, and the opposite flank of the Bulls’ revved-up offense is their terribly inconsistent defense.
Over the course of Thibodeau’s first four head-coaching years, the team’s defense never finished lower than third overall in opponents' points allowed per game; now, they are 14th, allowing teams to hang 99.5 points on a nightly basis.
As K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune pointed out in a December 6 piece, Chicago has given up 100 points to its challengers 10 times this season; it took them until January 24 to have that many lapses last season.
In that same writeup, backup power forward Taj Gibson and starting center Joakim Noah both pointed to a lack of trust as the reason for their defensive woes, but not everyone in the organization shared that belief.
In a December 10 article by Nick Friedell of ESPNChicago.com, the writer quotes Thibodeau calling his players’ categorization "garbage" and "a cop-out," instead extolling the virtues of hard work as the cure for their ills.
Whatever the cause may be, it is apparent that the Bulls need a solution.
Their defense has always given them the best chance at victory and still does, despite the fact that the team is scoring better. The performance decline of such a big part of Chicago’s winning philosophy is why this team may not finish as high as some may have thought before things got started.
The middle path
The Bulls will still have a winning season and make the playoffs. Barring some catastrophic occurrence that downs multiple key players, they have proven that being somewhat shorthanded has no bearing on their will to win.
However, this season is not just about winning. It is about reclaiming top-seed status in the Eastern Conference and once again becoming part of the championship hunt. Those are attainable goals if Chicago can tighten up, but at its current rate, the team will be nothing more than a moderately good regular-season club that will be very vulnerable come playoff time.
Should all things remain the same, here’s how Chicago will finish:
| Final Record | 53-29 |
| Conference Standing | 4th |
| Divisional Standing | 2nd |
This is a conservative forecast that takes into account that the Bulls’ current pace puts them near the 50-win threshold. It’s too hard to fathom that a Thibodeau-coached team will coast into May maintaining this same effort. Adjustments will be made along the way, which will garner at least a moderate improvement.
There are also some things that can alter this estimate. Although Rose’s health is holding up, he has been easing into this season and hasn't hit his stride. There is no telling what this group could be capable of when he is able to play at full throttle.
Let’s not forget the Bulls’ dismal home record. Their early struggles at the United Center are bound to improve, and that could put more tally marks in the win column. But that’s getting too speculative.
Presently, Thibodeau’s bunch is an inconsistent one that is still looking for its dominant mojo. The Bulls have all of the pieces to climb back into the league’s elite rankings, but they still have to put it all together.
All statistics are via Basketball-Reference.com and current as of December 11, 2014.
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