Teams on Upset Alert in 2014-15 College Football Bowl Season
Of the 38 bowl games this postseason, only 12 include favorites of seven points or more, per Odds Shark.
But whatever this bowl season lacks in underdog quantity, it makes up for in underdog quality. Both of the national semifinals include a power-conference champion (Florida State and Ohio State) getting more than a touchdown.
But which of this year's favorites run the greatest risk of losing outright? In order to find the answer, we looked at teams that have been overvalued, teams that have been undervalued, matchups, context, coaching situations, location and myriad other factors.
The list we came up with includes seven big favorites at risk of going down: six that are giving more than a touchdown, and one that is giving slightly less but will likely draw public support.
Sound off below and let us know what you think.
All spreads courtesy of Odds Shark unless noted otherwise.
Marshall
1 of 7
Game: Boca Raton Bowl, Dec. 23
Opponent: Northern Illinois
Line: Marshall (-10.5)
Marshall's past two games were a 67-66 loss to Western Kentucky and a 26-23 win over Louisiana Tech.
Northern Illinois' past two games were a 31-21 win over Western Michigan and a 51-17 win over Bowling Green.
Strictly on momentum, one has to consider NIU a decent bet to win this game. The bookmakers did a good job avoiding recency bias—Marshall does, after all, rank 57 spots higher on the F/+ ratings at Football Outsiders (No. 15 to No. 72)—but the past few games cannot be discounted entirely.
"This was our best game to date, at the right time," Huskies head coach Rod Carey told reporters after his team drilled Bowling Green in the MAC title game. "…And we want to keep playing this way because it feels really good when you play this way."
Feel good. Live good. Huskies by three.
Arizona State
2 of 7
Game: Hyundai Sun Bowl, Dec. 27
Opponent: Duke
Line: Arizona State (-8)
Arizona State has more talent than Duke, but talent has never mattered much for either of these teams.
The Sun Devils are prone to letdowns, as they proved in last year's 37-23 Holiday Bowl loss to Texas Tech. Before that, the Red Raiders had lost five consecutive games.
The Blue Devils are prone to upsets—or at least to playing up to competition—as they proved in last year's Chick-fil-A Bowl against Texas A&M. Johnny Manziel worked his magic to come back and win in the fourth quarter, but Duke acquitted itself well.
Obviously, those were different teams. But even that might help Duke's case. Arizona State was better in 2013, when it won the Pac-12 South, than it was this season. Duke regressed from last year too, but not as much as the Sun Devils.
David Cutcliffe has done stranger things.
LSU
3 of 7
Game: Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl, Dec. 30
Opponent: Notre Dame
Line: LSU (-7.5)
Notre Dame gaffed the second half of the season, losing four straight games and five of its last six. The lowlights of that spell included a home loss to Northwestern and a humiliating 49-14 loss at USC.
But this team still has talent. Enough talent that it hung with—and came oh so close to beating—Florida State in Tallahassee and beat Stanford early in the year. And the only real difference between Stanford and LSU is that Stanford's quarterback is better.
The Irish have an offense that can create plays and score points on LSU, provided Everett Golson doesn't turn the ball over ad nauseam. More to the point, though, LSU does not have an offense capable of exploiting the banged up Irish defense.
This one feels closer to a toss-up than a seven-point line. The time off should help Notre Dame lick its wounds, and it really needs to play well to avoid a critique-filled offseason in South Bend.
Plus…it's not like LSU is immune to bowl letdowns.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Georgia
4 of 7
Game: Belk Bowl, Dec. 30
Opponent: Louisville
Line: Georgia (-7)
Louisville knows Georgia well.
The question is whether or not that matters.
Cardinals defensive coordinator Todd Grantham left the Bulldogs after four years in the same role this offseason. He took with him a pair of starting defensive backs, Shaq Wiggins and Josh Harvey-Clemons, who despite not being able to play, per NCAA transfer policy, will if nothing else give detailed scouting reports.
Louisville finished with the No. 5 defense in the country this regular season, per the F/+ ratings at Football Outsiders. As good as Georgia has been on offense, it will not have the best unit on the field.
It also lost to a worse-than-Louisville Nebraska team last postseason.
Florida
5 of 7
Game: Birmingham Bowl, Jan. 3
Opponent: East Carolina
Line: Florida (-7.5)
Florida is more than 7.5 points better than East Carolina on paper. But its on-paper resume has mattered little the past two seasons. And that was before it had to play with an interim coach.
It's not like a weight was lifted when the Gators lost Will Muschamp, either. This is not a Lane Kiffin-at-USC situation. Florida's players loved playing for their former head coach.
"I came in with champ. I'm leaving with him," linebacker Dante Fowler tweeted after Muschamp resigned. "Simple as that."
If the Gators play lethargic football, East Carolina has enough good players to capitalize. Shane Carden will be the best quarterback on the field (by a significant margin), and Justin Hardy, the FBS leader in career receptions, will give UF's secondary all it can handle.
Oregon
6 of 7
Game: Rose Bowl, Jan. 1
Opponent: Florida State
Line: Oregon (-9)
Oregon is a better team than Florida State. An obviously better team than Florida State. In my Ultimate Guide to the College Football Playoff on Monday, I picked the Ducks to win by 15 points, 38-23.
In that same piece, I picked Alabama to beat Ohio State by three points, 31-28. But the Tide are not on "upset alert." At least not compared with Oregon, they aren't. Oregon has a better chance to win big, but it also has a better chance to lose.
Florida State has some hard-to-ignore voodoo magic going on this season, during which it's won seven games by six points or less. No one it has beaten is in the same class as Oregon, but teams such as Clemson, Louisville and Georgia Tech aren't too far off pace.
"Florida State is the No. 1 team in the country," Boston College head coach Steve Addazio told reporters after losing to the Noles in November. "The object is to win football games and find a way to win and they have obviously done an unbelievably great job of doing that."
Florida State has won 29 consecutive games. Any team that lays nine points against it would be on upset alert…Oregon included.
That is how 29-game winning streaks work.
Arkansas
7 of 7
Game: AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl, Dec. 29
Opponent: Texas
Line: Arkansas (-5.5)
Arkansas wins with power. It runs two NFL-caliber running backs into an NFL-sized offensive line and dares you to man up and stop it.
Texas is one of the few teams in college football—and basically the only team Arkansas had a chance of being paired with in a bowl game—that is capable of fighting Arkansas in the trenches. Its defense is loaded with future NFL players who will not be intimidated by size.
Defensive tackle Malcom Brown was named a finalist for the Outland Trophy. Linebackers Jordan Hicks and Steve Edmond have played out of their respective minds. Arkansas will have to do something other than run, run, run if it wants to move the ball with consistency.
Are we sure it is capable of doing that?
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
