Is All-Star Ryan Zimmerman a Future Hall of Famer?

Everything was so new and exciting back in 2005.

After a 34-year hiatus—about as long as it took Republicans to recapture the house in 1994—baseball returned to Washington D.C.

The uniforms were new. Many of the players were new. And RFK Stadium, while not new, didn’t look as destitute as it had just a few months earlier.

And all those “firsts” were so important. Brad Wilkerson got the team’s first hit and Terrmel Sledge walloped the first home run.

And Ryan Zimmerman became the Nationals’ very first draft pick in their very first Major League amateur draft.

For more than a month, Zimmerman was rumored to be a strong choice of then general manager Jim Bowden. He was a native Virginian, and a star at the University of Virginia.

Not exactly a hometown boy, but he was close.

In three seasons with the Cavaliers, Zimmerman batted .363 with seven homers and 140 RBI while playing stellar defense.

On draft day, Bowden said that Zimmerman was someone who could make it to the major leagues right away, that he had a superb glove and would one day hit .300 with 20 or 25 homers and drive in 100 RBI every year.

It seems that—in a moment of unusual clarity—Bowden was right.

After just four games at ‘A’ Savannah and 63 more at ‘AA’ Harrisburg, Zimmerman was in Washington, showing that he, and not Vinny Castilla, should be the team’s third baseman in 2006.

But was Bowden right about his predictions? Has he reached his potential? Will he be more than he is now?

In 2005, and at just 21, Zimmerman batted .287/20/110 with a .351 on-base percentage and a .471 slugging percentage. His excellent season propelled him to within four points of Hanley Ramirez for National League Rookie Of The Year.

A telling sign, or so I thought at the time, was his 47 doubles. That indicated that he was still maturing physically, strong enough to hit the fence on the fly but not yet ready to hit those same balls a little bit higher and a little bit farther.

Sluggers tend to hit a high number of doubles early in their career, but as the doubles decrease, their homers increase, a product of a maturing body and additional experience.

So it seemed to make sense that Zimmerman’s 47 doubles and 20 homers would one day become 37 doubles and 30 homers.

That certainly didn’t happen in 2007, his second year with the Nationals, when virtually all his measurable statistics dropped significantly. He batted just .266-24-91 and saw his OPS drop a full 40 points.

However, he did hit four fewer doubles and four more homers than the previous year.

2008 wasn’t a good indicator of his progress, as a shoulder injury drained him of his power early in the season before being forced to the DL for more than 50 games. He finished .283-14-51.

Heading into 2009, his fourth major league season, Zimmerman was healthy and ready to improve his game. He was stronger, older, and wiser.

There are a few things we know about Zimmerman at this point in his career. First, he starts slow. Second, he picks it up a bit by the All-Star break. Lastly, he tends to hit very well over the second half of the year.

So all he did was come out of spring training hotter than a Palm Springs summer, garnering a 30-game hitting streak. But once the streak ended, he cooled off. Just three weeks ago, he was on pace to hit .290/26/94, good but not as good as his rookie year.

But once again, Zimmerman turned hot after the All-Star game.

After a recent flurry of home runs and RBI, he is finally heading for a career year. At his current pace, he’ll hit .293/32/109. His .359 on-base percent is 12 points higher than 2005, and his slugging percent is up by 28 points.

He’s on pace to hit 35 doubles and 32 homers, a combined 67 hits. In 2005, his rookie year, Zimmerman hit 47 doubles and 20 homers, also totaling 67.

I think that’s pretty amazing.

While Zimmerman will continue to get better, I think we’re beginning to see what the finished product will eventually look like. Players who are polished collegians and make it to the majors quickly have a more flat learning curve.

By the age of 30, he’ll likely be a .300/34/115 hitter with a .360 on-base percentage and a .500 slugging mark. He’ll be a consistent All Star, but not the type of player who will lead the league in any offensive categories.

He reminds me a lot of former Chicago Cubs’ third baseman Ron Santo. Santo, from age 24 to 29, averaged .294-32-96 and .277/26/97 for his 15-year career. He was a six-time National League all-star.

Zimmerman is a click above Santo offensively, and light years ahead of him defensively (Zimmerman’s .964 career fielding percent is a full 10 points better than Santo’s).

Will Ryan Zimmerman become a Hall of Famer? Probably not. Ron Santo is believed to be worthy, but has never garnered more than 45 percent of the required votes to gain entrance into the Hall.

The Hall of Fame tends to turn their nose up at third baseman. Only 10 of them currently reside there, and when Santo retired in 1974, there were just two.

So Zimmerman will likely become a 10-time All Star, and win five or six gold gloves. He'll never lead in any offensive category, but he’ll be near the top in several. He’ll be known as the greatest homegrown National of his generation, and will probably end up with a statue next to Frank Howard.

But the Hall of Fame won’t come calling.

I think that’s enough, don’t you?