Sugar Bowl 2015: Updated Odds and Preview for Alabama vs. Ohio State

Even those clamoring for another team as the final member of the College Football Playoff can't be too disappointed with an Alabama vs. Ohio State matchup in the Sugar Bowl.

Two of the true blue bloods in college football will go at it after the Buckeyes trounced Wisconsin 59-0 in the Big Ten Championship Game, a result convincing enough to jump both TCU and Baylor for the fourth and final spot. That gives Ohio State the chance to remedy its recent SEC woes and stick it to the conference's top prize fighter.

But with a spot in the national championship on the line, only one thing will be on both teams' minds—survive and advance to Jan. 12.

Let's break down the Sugar Bowl.

What: 2015 Allstate Sugar Bowl 

When: Thursday, January 1, 2015

Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans

Start Time (ET): 8:30 p.m.

TV: ESPN

Live Stream: WatchESPN

Odds (via Odds Shark): Alabama -10.5

Over/Under: 58

2015 Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Ohio State

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Even though things weren't as gloomy as they seemed early in the season, Alabama's turnaround from the beginning of 2014 until now can't be overlooked.

The Crimson Tide looked lethargic in their 33-23 win over West Virginia in Atlanta to start the season and didn't wait long to drop a road contest to Ole Miss. They faced virtually eight must-win games from there on out in order to make the CFP.

When they wrapped up a 42-13 win over Missouri in Atlanta to close out 2014, however, it was obvious given their body of work that the strides made have been huge. Head coach Nick Saban agreed, per Tuscaloosa News' Cecil Hurt:

If you want to talk about turnaround projects in this game, however, the conversation really has to start with Ohio State.

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The Buckeyes scoff at Alabama's early-season problems. After all, they fell 35-21 to a then-unranked Virginia Tech team at home in just the second week of the season—a Hokies squad that finished a paltry 6-6 (3-5 ACC). 

The loss set them back quite a ways, but head coach Urban Meyer's Buckeyes ripped through their final 11 games—including wins over Michigan State, Minnesota and a drubbing of Wisconsin—despite now starting third-string quarterback Cardale Jones. And when Meyer (who has been around the block) lauds it as his most improved team, you know it's real, per Big Ten Football:

But early-season trends and late turnarounds won't matter all that much when the two teams go toe-to-toe on New Year's Day.

What will matter is the offensive revitalization of quarterback Blake Sims, who has gone from a scrutinized starter to the top single-season passer in Alabama history. Three of his seven picks on the season came in an uncharacteristic struggle against Auburn, and his short-passing game with Amari Cooper has been uncontainable. 

Offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin has been mixing up screen passes with deep balls down the field to Cooper and DeAndrew White that Sims is hitting. The Tide's newfound ability to throw it deep only opens things up more for running backs T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry, the latter of whom Meyer lauded, per Bleacher Report's Marc Torrence:

The Crimson Tide's defense could have its hands full as well, as Ohio State's Jones dazzled against Wisconsin in his first career start. He'll have to throw it more than 17 times against a relatively weak (for its standard) Alabama secondary, but he showed incredible efficiency against Wisconsin.

Ezekiel Elliott burst out to break the Big Ten championship rushing record with 220 yards against a stout Wisconsin defensive front. But while the Badgers may be the most burly front in the Big Ten, Alabama has proved to be even more sound against the run.

Needless to say, both defenses will have their hands more than full in a game featuring two prolific offenses.

Preview

When two high-powered offenses with numerous weapons go to battle in a game with championship implications, the top defense typically finds a way to make the winning plays. 

That will undoubtedly be Alabama, which isn't the defensive dynamo it was a few years back but maintains all the speed and physicality to match whatever Ohio State throws out. You also can't deny the mastery of Saban when he has ample time to prepare, as Fox Sports' Clay Travis noted:

The Buckeyes won't keel over, however. A lack of tape on Jones will allow him to make some plays deep down the field, as Alabama's secondary has been known to concede. 

But a defensive performance similar to that of Wisconsin won't be in the works against the Tide, who will mix it up and keep Meyer's defense on its heels.

Prediction: Alabama 31, Ohio State 24