Ultimate Guide to College Football Playoff
The field has been set for the first-ever College Football Playoff, which will feature the SEC, Pac-12, ACC and Big Ten champions instead of the co-champions tendered by the Big 12.
There are gripes to be had about the four teams that made it (and the two Big 12 teams that did not), but why waste any more time arguing? We have argued for the past four months. It's over. We made it. It is time to look forward, not back.
Looking forward means previewing the inaugural Final Four, which is an exciting sentence to write. And the games are as good as anyone could have hoped. Bleacher Report's Adam Kramer called this college football's "dream playoff," which is the perfect way to describe it.
It may be the only way to describe it.
Here is everything you need to know.
Time, Dates, Locations
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Rose Bowl: No. 3 Florida State (13-0) vs. No. 2 Oregon (12-1)
Thursday, January 1, 5 p.m. ET — Pasadena, California (ESPN)
Sugar Bowl: No. 4 Ohio State (12-1) vs. No. 1 Alabama (12-1)
Thursday, January 1, 8:30 p.m. ET — New Orleans (ESPN)
CFP National Championship Game: TBD vs. TBD
Monday, January 12, 8:30 p.m. ET — Arlington, Texas (ESPN)
Rose Bowl: Tale of the Tape
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Florida State Offense vs. Oregon Defense
| FSU | Rank | ORE | Rank | |
| Yards Per Game | 434.7 | 42 | 413.8 | 83 |
| Points Per Game | 34.8 | 28 | 22.5 | 29 |
| Yards Per Play | 6.4 | 24 | 5.4 | 56 |
| F/+ Rating | 16.3 | 6 | 12.6 | 13 |
| S&P+ Rating | 120.6 | 20 | 123.5 | 12 |
| Yards Per Pass | 8.3 | 18 | 6.6 | 34 |
| Yards Per Rush | 4.3 | 70 | 4.1 | 55 |
| Turnovers | 27 | 112 | 25 | 29 |
Oregon Offense vs. Florida State Defense
| ORE | Rank | FSU | Rank | |
| Yards Per Game | 546.2 | 3 | 378.3 | 51 |
| Points Per Game | 46.3 | 3 | 23.0 | 30 |
| Yards Per Play | 7.4 | 2 | 5.3 | 47 |
| F/+ Rating | 19.9 | 2 | 10.2 | 20 |
| S&P+ Rating | 129.9 | 3 | 113.7 | 26 |
| Yards Per Pass | 10.0 | 1 | 7.1 | 69 |
| Yards Per Rush | 5.5 | 13 | 3.9 | 44 |
| Turnovers | 8 | 1 | 24 | 30 |
Turnovers are the most important discrepancy in the Rose Bowl.
Oregon takes care of the ball better than any team in the country, having turned it over an FBS-best eight times in 13 games. Second-place Kansas State has turned it over 11 times in 12 games.
Florida State ranks No. 112 in the country with 27 offensive turnovers. Of the other 12 teams with 27 or more turnovers during the regular season, only two (Central Florida and West Virginia) even made a bowl game this season—and both of them lost.
Rose Bowl: Biggest Storyline
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Marcus Mariota vs. Jameis Winston
The Rose Bowl will feature the past two Heisman Trophy winners.
More than that, though, the matchup between Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota and Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston has been transmogrified into a matchup of Good vs. Evil. This has been a tad annoying, but there isn't any good way to avoid it.
So we might as well embrace it.
Jameis was never charged following an allegation of sexual assault but has aggravated the public with his frequently childish behavior. He was cited for shoplifting crab legs this offseason and suspended one game (against Clemson) for screaming sexual epithets on campus in September.
Mariota, the 2014 Heisman winner, is a golden child. Greg Couch of Bleacher Report wrote a piece on whether Mariota could "save the Heisman Trophy" earlier this season, calling him "the anti-Jameis Winston, the anti-Johnny Manziel, the anti-Cam Newton."
Off the field, that is. On the field, Mariota has hints of all three.
And he might be the best of the bunch.
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Rose Bowl Injury Update: Ifo Ekpre-Olomu out for Season
4 of 15Oregon suffered a huge blow in the run-up to the Rose Bowl when cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu went down with a knee injury.
Ekpre-Olomu is widely regarded as one of the top cornerbacks in the country and a first-round NFL draft prospect. He was supposed to play a big role in guarding Florida State receiver Rashad Greene, one of the best offensive skill players in college football.
The injury forces Oregon to reshuffle the ranks of its secondary. Troy Hill will spend the most time covering Greene, and backups Chris Seisay, Dior Mathis and Arrion Springs will see added time. Hill and Mathis are seniors; Seisay and Springs are freshmen.
But don't count out the Ducks defense just yet. According to Gary Horowitz of the Statesman Journal, they have learned from their offensive line to embrace the mantra of "next man up."
"They all rallied together and they understood they had to play harder," Hill said of the offensive line, which overcame injuries in the middle of the season. "I feel like we've gotta do that and take our game to the next level because [Ekpre-Olomu] contributed so much to this defense."
Rose Bowl: Key to the Game
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Can Florida State Stop the Run?
Florida State is weak up the middle and might have gotten weaker when defensive tackle Eddie Goldman—whom some would argue is the most important player on the team, Winston included—left the Georgia Tech game with an ankle injury and didn't return.
Head coach Jimbo Fisher said Goldman has been practicing and will be "ready to roll" in the Rose Bowl, per Brendan Sonnone of the Orlando Sentinel, which is important news for the Seminoles. But even with Goldman playing at 100 percent, run defense might be an issue.
Strike that…run defense will be an issue.
According to the S&P+ ratings at Football Outsiders, Florida State has the No. 50 run defense in the country. Teams that rank above it include such powerhouses as Kent State, Toledo, UTSA, East Carolina and Central Michigan. Its front seven finished No. 80 in havoc rate, which measures how often a unit forces negative plays.
By the same metric, Oregon has the No. 3 rushing offense in the country. Mariota is one of the best running quarterbacks we've ever seen, and freshman Royce Freeman provides a power option on par with former Ducks Jonathan Stewart and LeGarrette Blount.
All-American center Hroniss Grasu and change-of-pace running back Thomas Tyner both missed the Pac-12 Championship Game with injuries but are slated to return for the Rose Bowl. The Ducks will have everything they need to challenge Florida State's weakest area.
How will Florida State respond?
Rose Bowl: Matchup to Watch
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WR Rashad Greene (FSU) vs. CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu Troy Hill (ORE)
Last year, Florida State had a three-headed monster at receiver. Rashad Greene led the group in receptions and yardage, but future first-round draft pick Kelvin Benjamin played a major role (especially in the national title game), and so did slot receiver Kenny Shaw.
This year, the stats have been a little less evenly distributed:
| Greene (2013) | Nos. 2 and 3 WRs (2013) | |
| Catches | 76 | 108 |
| Yards | 1,128 | 1,944 |
| Touchdowns | 9 | 21 |
| Greene (2014) | Nos. 2 and 3 WRs (2014) | |
| Catches | 93 | 69 |
| Yards | 1,306 | 914 |
| Touchdowns | 7 | 7 |
Florida State relies on Greene as its sole means of consistent production on the outside. Oregon looked to have the man to stop him before Ekpre-Olomu blew out his knee. But now? Greene and FSU's passing game have the significant advantage.
That is where Hill steps in.
The 5'11" senior has had the best year of his career in 2014. He leads the Ducks with 16 pass breakups, although some of that can be attributed to playing opposite Ekpre-Olomu. Opponents have taken their chances targeting Hill instead of throwing at an All-American.
Regardless, Hill knows his way around Don Pellum's defense and is familiar with the big stage. He broke up a pass in the 2013 Fiesta Bowl against Kansas State and had an interception this season at Utah. And he's done his due diligence in preparing to cover Greene.
"Man, I don't know what it is about that man, but he cleans it up in that second half," Hill said of Greene, per Safid Deen of the Tallahassee Democrat. "I don't know. It's just something about him that makes him a winner."
Rose Bowl: Legacies on the Line in Pasadena
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Greg Couch of Bleacher Report wrote a fine pair of columns from Pasadena, each concerning the legacies at stake in the Rose Bowl.
The first concerned Oregon's program:
"Nationally, when people think about Oregon, they think about fast pace, gimmicky plays, wild uniforms, highlighter-yellow socks and shoes, Nike money, outrageously posh facilities and a lot of wins out there in a far corner of the country, where games finish too late for the rest of the country to watch.
But for all those wins, Oregon doesn't have the fabled status of those other three schools—the history of national titles and iconic coaches, the automatic SportsCenter leads most weeks, the relevance even when the team's not in the Top 10 nationally. The Ducks aren't in that club yet. But they're close.
That's why Oregon needs this Rose Bowl on Thursday against Florida State. In fact, this whole College Football Playoff means so much more to the Ducks than it does to the other teams.
For one great, defining moment—redefining, really—Oregon needs to beat a traditional power and win a national title. Then, the Ducks will have finally arrived among the national elite. For all they have done over the past several years—the comeback win over Michigan State, a Heisman Trophy, etc.—they still do not have a signature win.
"
Oregon is 69-10 in the six years since Chip Kelly became head coach. It is 23-3 since Mark Helfrich relieved Kelly last season. It has won 59 games the past five seasons. Even Alabama (58) has won fewer.
But the Kelly era apexed with a trip to the 2011 BCS National Championship Game, where the Ducks played well but lost to Cam Newton's Auburn Tigers, 22-19. Helfrich's first season featured a pair of disappointing conference losses and a trip to the Alamo Bowl.
Couch makes the incisive point about Oregon's lack of signature wins. It has beaten some great Pac-12 opponents, but the national (East Coast-centric) majority will not accept those as "signature wins."
It needs to beat a team from the Southeast.
It needs to beat a Florida State.
Couch's other story concerned the legacy of Jameis Winston:
"The truth is Winston's college legacy won't be set until a few years after his pro career starts. This season as a villain will never fully be wiped from his reputation. But if he plays well and starts to behave well as a grown man out on his own, it will be pushed back.
On Thursday, he'll face another Heisman winner, Marcus Mariota, whose college legacy is set as the ultimate humble good guy. It's another chance for Winston to just keep going, as he put it.
His spot in history is guaranteed. What that spot is, exactly, isn't quite set yet. But it will have nothing to do with walking down the street backward.
"
Winston has never lost a game in his college career.
That sentence is pithy and marks an easy way to defend his legacy. If he loses to Oregon (or Alabama/Ohio State), he can still say he holds the record for most consecutive wins to start his career.
But he can't say he's undefeated.
It's important that he say he's undefeated.
Rose Bowl: Prediction
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Oregon 38, Florida State 23
There are only two options here. Either Oregon wins big, or Florida State wins close. There is no middle ground between them.
In that case, I'll defer to the F/+ ratings at Football Outsiders, which rate Oregon the No. 3 team in the country and Florida State down at No. 8. The difference between their efficiencies (8.1 percent) is the same as the difference between Florida State and No. 18 LSU.
There's a reason this line opened at Oregon minus-8.5.
Sugar Bowl: Tale of the Tape
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Alabama Offense vs. Ohio State Defense
| ALA | Rank | OSU | Rank | |
| Yards Per Game | 490.5 | 15 | 328.0 | 14 |
| Points Per Game | 37.1 | 16 | 21.2 | 20 |
| Yards Per Play | 6.7 | 9 | 4.79 | 18 |
| F/+ Rating | 19.8 | 3 | 15.4 | 7 |
| S&P+ Rating | 133.1 | 2 | 129.7 | 4 |
| Yards Per Pass | 8.8 | 10 | 5.8 | 7 |
| Yards Per Rush | 5.1 | 28 | 3.9 | 39 |
| Turnovers | 19 | 44 | 29 | 13 |
Ohio State Offense vs. Alabama Defense
| OSU | Rank | ALA | Rank | |
| Yards Per Game | 507.6 | 9 | 312.4 | 10 |
| Points Per Game | 45.2 | 5 | 16.6 | 3 |
| Yards Per Play | 7.0 | 6 | 4.68 | 10 |
| F/+ Rating | 18.8 | 4 | 19.7 | 2 |
| S&P+ Rating | 136.3 | 1 | 137.9 | 1 |
| Yards Per Pass | 9.2 | 6 | 6.4 | 22 |
| Yards Per Rush | 5.8 | 10 | 2.8 | 2 |
| Turnovers | 20 | 47 | 18 | 87 |
Great matchups on both sides of the ball.
Alabama's offense is very good, not great. Ohio State's defense is very good, not great. They will play each other.
Ohio State's offense is great, not very good. Alabama's defense is great, not very good. They will also play each other.
The obvious variable here is Ohio State's quarterback situation. J.T. Barrett was a Heisman contender and the man most responsible for these numbers. Cardale Jones relieved him well in the Big Ten Championship Game, but that is still just a one-game sample.
Can he replicate that performance in New Orleans?
Sugar Bowl: Biggest Storyline
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Urban Meyer vs. Nick Saban was the best rivalry in college football back when Meyer plied his trade at Florida.
The Tim Tebow-led Gators ended Alabama's perfect season in the 2008 SEC Championship Game, but the Crimson Tide returned the favor when both teams were undefeated the following season. This Sugar Bowl will be a rubber match for Meyer and Saban—their third meeting that functions as a national semifinal.
"It's a tough one," Meyer said of his previous battles with Saban, per Bill Rabinowitz of The Columbus Dispatch. "I remember every snap."
Hopefully, he remembers more about that 2008 game than the 32-13 loss in 2009 or the 31-6 loss (during the regular season) in 2010. Either way, though, a lot of things have changed in the interim.
It's about time these two got back at it.
Sugar Bowl: Key to the Game
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Cardale Jones Throwing Deep
The book on beating Alabama is easy to read but difficult to execute: Attack the perimeter and dare its secondary to make plays.
Auburn found success targeting Sammie Coates down the field, and Missouri matched that game plan with Jimmie Hunt.
If Jones plays as well as he did against Wisconsin—the first and only start of his career—Ohio State should be able to match that success too. Devin Smith is one of the best deep receivers in the country, and Jones (6'5", 250 lbs) has a trebuchet in place of an arm.
Jones completed throws of 39, 32, 44 and 42 yards against the Badgers, finishing with an average of 15.1 yards per attempt and 21.4 yards per completion. He is a quarterback suited to attack the deep third, and he's preparing for a defense that struggles to protect it.
If he's on, that could be an issue.
Sugar Bowl: Matchup to Watch
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OT Cameron Robinson (ALA) vs. DE Joey Bosa (OSU)
Alabama's Cameron Robinson was a top-five recruit in 2014 and quickly became an All-SEC-type tackle. Ohio State's Joey Bosa was a top-40 recruit in 2013 and quickly became an All-American-type end.
If ever there were a reason for a popcorn GIF.
Robinson is better as a run-blocker than a pass-blocker, which might give Bosa the upper hand. Both players are big, athletic specimens, but Bosa has an advanced library of pass-rush moves and knows how to get a tackle on his heels. He finished No. 4 in the country in total sacks (13.5) and No. 3 against power-five opponents (12.5).
Robinson, though, has been weaned on the rigors of SEC play and will not be intimidated by Bosa. The list of pass-rushers he has blocked includes Dante Fowler Jr. of Florida, Trey Flowers of Arkansas, Myles Garrett of Texas A&M, Derek Barnett of Tennessee, Preston Smith of Mississippi State and (briefly) Shane Ray of Missouri.
Bosa disappointed against the best left tackle he played this season, Jack Conklin of Michigan State, but has always done his best on the big stage. And it doesn't help that Robinson has been playing through an ankle injury since the end of October.
Still, if Robinson can neutralize Bosa, Ohio State is in deep trouble. Bosa rushes often from the left side (so right tackle Austin Shepherd will be called upon to block him as well), but his biggest damage comes from the right, where right-handed quarterbacks can't watch their back.
That part is all on Robinson.
Sugar Bowl: Ohio State Playing the Underdog Card?
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It's rare that a team like Ohio State—an indubitable "blue blood" with 36 wins in its past 39 games—can play the role of underdog.
In this case, though, Alabama is favored by nine points.
But this is not the first time Urban Meyer has had one of his teams questioned. And he's proved in the past that he knows how to play the underdog card. Bleacher Report's Ben Axelrod explains:
"If history is any indication, Meyer will do his best to convince his team that its collective back is against the wall. After all, that was the approach that first established him as one of college football's top coaches and helped him capture the first of his two national championships.
That was eight years ago, and rather than coaching the Buckeyes, Meyer was preparing to take on Ohio State as the head coach of Florida. Entering the 2007 BCS National Championship Game with one loss compared to the undefeated Buckeyes and Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith, the Gators were a one-touchdown underdog, seemingly lucky to just be taking part in the title game.
That was just fine with Meyer, who on multiple occasions has described his 2006 Florida squad as the "angriest" team that he's ever coached. Only adding to the Gators' rage was literally 10 feet worth of bulletin board material that was prominently placed in the Florida team hotel—or as Meyer later admitted, "10 feet of nonsense."
"
Florida won that game 41-14 to claim the national title.
Meyer's Buckeyes have been underdogs just once the past two seasons. That game took place in November 2014, when Ohio State traveled to East Lansing to play Michigan State.
The line was close to a pick 'em, closing at Michigan State minus-2, but Ohio State was still supposed to lose. Instead, it scored touchdowns on six consecutive (and seven of eight) possessions and beat the Spartans 49-37 in their own house.
Cue up the "Nobody Believes in Us!" theory.
Sugar Bowl: Prediction
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Alabama 31, Ohio State 28
Closer than the line suggests.
Meyer and offensive coordinator Tom Herman will find a way to move the football. It might not be consistent, and running back Ezekiel Elliott might never find a clean hole to run through, but the Buckeyes will make enough big plays to keep things close.
It's the other side of the ball that concerns me. Alabama's offense is peaking, and even though cornerback Doran Grant has made major improvements (and is a freak athlete in his own right), I don't trust the shape of Ohio State's secondary against Amari Cooper.
Speculative Championship Game Preview
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No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 1 Alabama
Oregon makes its second national title game in five years, this time drawing Alabama's other blue-blood program.
But it won't find a different result.
Buildup to the game would concern Saban and Kirby Smart against Oregon's uptempo offense, which the Crimson Tide allegedly can't defend. But if that allegation is true, how does one explain the 59-0 drubbing they laid on Texas A&M this season?
Alabama's defense has been fine against tempo, only showing weakness against big, strong, fast wide receivers. Kevin White. Laquon Treadwell. Sammie Coates. Those are the guys who have given Alabama trouble. And Oregon doesn't have anybody like them.
It wouldn't be a repeat of Alabama 42, Notre Dame 14, and in fact has a chance to be an all-time great national title game. But this Alabama team looks really locked in right now. And once Saban gets past the SEC Championship Game, he typically knows how to finish.
Let's roll with the cutest final score I can think of.
The Pick: Alabama 22, Oregon 19
Note: All recruiting info refers to the 247Sports composite rankings. All spread info courtesy of Odds Shark.
Follow Brian Leigh on Twitter: @BLeigh35
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