Biggest Early-Season Storylines for Atlanta Hawks
Who would have expected the Atlanta Hawks to race out to a 13-6 record and the Eastern Conference's second-best record to start the 2014-15 NBA season?
OK, maybe some of you Hawks fans reading this did. But you have to admit, that was a pretty optimistic, not to mention creepily accurate, prediction.
Either way, Atlanta looks to be on its way to a very successful campaign in the wide-open Eastern Conference. Unlike last year, the team is staying healthy (knock on wood) and getting contributions from players all the way down the roster.
So what are the five main storylines for the Hawks just before the season's quarter pole? Flip to the next slide and see.
Jeff Teague, All-Star?
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There are plenty of quality point guards in the Eastern Conference. John Wall, Kyrie Irving, Rajon Rondo, Deron Williams and Kyle Lowry are names that many casual NBA fans would put firmly as their top five floor generals in the East, in some order.
News flash, world: Jeff Teague deserves to be in that top five. Pretty easily, in fact.
He may not be as flashy as some of the other star floor generals, but Teague ranks No. 3 in player efficiency rating (22.3) and win shares per 48 minutes (0.184) out of all East point guards, behind only Lowry and Irving in both statistics. Each of those numbers is a career best, by the way.
A big part of the 26-year-old's stellar season has been his shooting efficiency. Teague is being more judicious with his shot selection and is showing a better touch around the rim. His average shot distance is a career-low 9.7 feet from the basket, and he's also shooting better at the rim than he ever has, at a blistering 64.3 percent.
Voting for the NBA All-Star Game opens up on Thursday, Dec. 11, according to NBA.com. Hopefully, when voters fill out their ballots this year, they won't forget Teague's breakout year.
The Development of Dennis Schroder
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Remember Teague's No. 3 rank in PER among Eastern Conference point guards?
Well, the guy slotted right after him at No. 4 is Dennis Schroder, a 21-year-old lightning bug from Braunschweig, Germany. The 6'1" Schroder is bouncing back big-time after a disastrous rookie year in which he looked overmatched by the mental aspect of the game.
According to Grantland's Zach Lowe, Hawks head coach Mike Budenholzer said the following about the young floor general's rookie year: "Speed is nice. But you've got to learn how to use it."
Schroder is flourishing right now in his reserve role, averaging an excellent 19.8 points, 6.3 assists and 2.1 steals per 36 minutes. He's learned how to use screens to his advantage, hitting the open lane with a burst of speed and finishing at the rim with a touch dubbed by Lowe as "silky."
In a couple of years, Schroder might usurp Teague's role as the Hawks' franchise point guard. He might not, in which case Atlanta's best option would probably be to trade him.
But for now, just enjoy watching the development of a great young point guard.
Rebounding Still a Problem
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The Hawks are doing great, but 13-6 teams have issues, too.
Atlanta's main one right now is rebounding. Per ESPN, the Hawks currently rank No. 28 in rebounding differential (minus-3.2 per game). This is no new problem, either—go back several years in those rebounding differential statistics, and you'll see that Atlanta hasn't been any higher than No. 20 since 2008-09.
Who is the culprit for the team's inability to clean the glass?
Center Al Horford is certainly one person to blame—he's averaging just 7.6 rebounds per 36 minutes, a career low. Backup wings Kent Bazemore (7.6 boards per 36 minutes) and Thabo Sefolosha (7.9) are matching and exceeding the big man's contributions in that category, respectively.
Horford is coming off of a season-ending pectoral injury, but he's still shown he can crash the boards on occasion this year (13 rebounds versus the Toronto Raptors on Oct. 29, 10 boards versus the New Orleans Pelicans on Nov. 28). The effort and physicality need to come on a more consistent basis for him, however.
Rebounding is a team effort—if both Horford and his teammates show a little bit more intensity in retrieving missed shots, this Hawks squad will look a lot more like a legitimate title contender.
Offseason Additions Adding...Not so Much
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Let me preface this section by saying that much of what the Hawks' new players have offered to the team has come on the defensive side of the ball—the side that isn't quantified well by statistical measures.
But overall, offseason acquisitions Sefolosha, Bazemore and Adreian Payne have been largely unimpressive.
The 30-year-old Sefolosha has given the most to the Hawks of the three so far. The former Oklahoma City Thunder swingman is playing good pressure defense on opposing ball-handlers and rebounding well (7.9 rebounds per 36 minutes), but that's about it. He's shooting badly, with a pathetic shooting slash of .345/.154/.720, and his offensive ineptitude has inhibited team spacing.
Everything said above about Sefolosha also applies to Bazemore. And the 25-year-old former Los Angeles Laker's shooting slash is an unsightly .344/.222/.429, in case you were wondering. Unlike Sefolosha, however, Bazemore hasn't found a steady spot in Budenholzer's rotation, with a grand total of 138 minutes played the whole season.
Rookie power forward Payne has played several games for the NBA D-League's Fort Wayne Mad Ants and is playing well for them. His averages over six contests are 13.5 points and 10.5 rebounds per game, per NBA. He's been bouncing back and forth between the Mad Ants and Hawks, but he still hasn't played a minute for Atlanta.
Contributions from the Hawks' new players have been disappointing and sparse, unfortunately. On the bright side, however, Atlanta brought back an ample amount of talent from its 2013-14 squad.
Continuity Paying Dividends
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Much was made of the Hawks not making any big, roster-shaking moves in free agency.
Peachtree Hoops' Kris Willis said the following at the end of the 2014 offseason: "Many went into the offseason expecting a large move from the Atlanta Hawks in free agency. … Atlanta did shore up some depth issues along the way but failed to make that move that gets people talking."
But who needs an offseason move when your existing roster can simply step up its play?
The Hawks returned 12 players from last year's squad: Pero Antic, Elton Brand, DeMarre Carroll, Horford, John Jenkins, Kyle Korver, Shelvin Mack, Paul Millsap, Mike Muscala, Schroder, Mike Scott and Teague.
The sum of the aforementioned 12 players' PERs in 2013-14 was 161.8. What about their total so far in 2014-15? All the way up to 193.3.
Essentially, the average returning Hawk has kicked his PER up from 13.5 to 16.1. When you have 12 players doing that, it makes an impact.
The Atlanta Hawks might not keep up their 56-win pace for the whole season. But with the great production they're getting from their returning players, they won't stray too far from it.
Note: All statistics are from Basketball-Reference.com and accurate as of Dec. 7 unless otherwise indicated.
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