
Bowl Predictions 2014: Latest Projections After Playoff Rankings Reveal
It's a good thing the college football playoffs were introduced so we could finally put to rest all of the controversy.
Oh, wait.
The official Final Four was announced Sunday, with Alabama, Oregon, Florida State and Ohio State at the top, in that order. The obvious exclusions were TCU, who entered the Week at No. 3, beat Iowa State by 52 points and finished at No. 6, and Baylor, who emphatically beat No. 9 Kansas State but still came up just short.
There was understandable disappointment from both Big 12 schools:
The major takeaways: Conference championships are undeniably important, and no matter how many teams make the playoffs, there will always be upset parties on the outside looking in.
That said, let's take a look at the now-official college football playoff semifinals.
Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Ohio State
Urban Meyer has two national championships under his belt, but an argument can be made that this was the finest coaching job of his career. He endured the loss of two quarterbacks—one a Heisman candidate before the season and one a Heisman candidate by the end of it—and still did enough to get into the playoffs.
But now he faces his toughest test of the year.
Despite allowing 44 points against Auburn a couple of weeks ago, the Crimson Tide are second in the nation in points allowed per game (16.8) and 10th in yards allowed per play (4.6). As always, they have an array of future NFL players, led by safety Landon Collins.
The Buckeyes' super-efficient offense—scoring at least 40 points in nine of their past 11 games—didn't miss a beat with Cardale Jones under center this week, demolishing No. 13 Wisconsin, 59-0. They will be able to move the ball, but Alabama's solid pass rush will be able to generate enough pressure to keep the sophomore QB uncomfortable and force some crucial mistakes.
Moreover, as Meyer pointed out, via the Tuscaloosa News' Cecil Hurt, Alabama's offense is no longer overshadowed by its defense:
Even if the inexperienced Jones lights up Nick Saban's defense, which will have nearly a month of preparation, the Tide have the weapons to be just fine in a shootout.
Prediction: Alabama 38, Ohio State 28
Rose Bowl: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 3 Florida State
Marcus Mariota vs. Jameis Winston.
Even though the pair of quarterbacks won't be on the field at the same time until the final handshake, that's what the 101st Rose Bowl will be hyped as. Those two players alone won't decide the game, but it's undeniably captivating:
As ESPN's David Hale pointed out, the pair of QBs have been quite similar over the past two seasons:
"Comparing Winston & Mariota the last 2 seasons… pic.twitter.com/Z8f9ZnAipn
— David Hale (@DavidHaleESPN) December 7, 2014"
But Mariota (better completion percentage, more passing yards, more rushing yards, more touchdowns, 15 fewer interceptions) has been better this season. And more importantly, the Ducks as a team have been better than the Seminoles.
Since a loss to Arizona in early October, Oregon has won eight games by an average of just over 26 points. That includes dominant victories over Top 25 teams UCLA, Utah and Arizona.
Comparatively, Florida State's last eight wins have come by less than eight points per contest. That includes narrow escapes against Louisville, Miami, Boston College and Florida.
You can't fully discredit the Seminoles for continuing to win. And they have the talent on offense to give Oregon's occasionally inconsistent defense problems. But it's going to be a nightmare ofr Jimbo Fisher's squad to slow down Mariota, Royce Freeman, Byron Marshall and the Ducks' uptempo attack.
Prediction: Oregon 41, Florida State 30
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