Idaho Potato Bowl 2014: Preview, Predictions for Western Michigan vs. Air Force
There may be more exciting matchups in the 2014-15 bowl season, but you'll have a hard time finding two teams closer in skill level than Potato Bowl participants Western Michigan and Air Force.
The Broncos and Falcons each come into the Dec. 20 matchup with relatively similar resumes. Western Michigan averages 34.6 points per game, Air Force 30.9. Air Force allows 24.2 points per game, Western Michigan 23.8. Normalize those results for conference—the Falcons' Mountain West is stronger than the Broncos' desire for MACtion—and you get two near-mirrors of one another.
Football Outsiders, which normalizes team stats in the way just described, ranks Air Force 44th. Coming in three spots later is Western Michigan.
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Of course, how those teams get to that relatively similar playing field is very different and should define this year's Potato Bowl.
Under head coach Troy Calhoun, Air Force has been defined by its ground game. The Falcons ranked eighth nationally with 272.2 rushing yards per game, led by a five-headed monster of ball-carriers with 60 or more carries.
Jacobi Owens had a team-high 1,054 yards during the regular season, but Air Force will be forced to play without the sophomore star. Owens suffered a Lisfranc injury in a 45-38 win over Nevada and was ruled out for the remainder of 2014 after undergoing surgery.
In the two games since he went down, Air Force's ground game has been noticeably less explosive. The Falcons averaged a paltry 3.4 yards per carry in a 30-14 loss to San Diego State and were held in check against Colorado State despite pulling off a surprising upset.
Calhoun's team was able to defeat the then-ranked Rams despite the injury bug biting its most important players. Not only was Owens unavailable, but an injury to quarterback Kale Pearson forced senior Nate Romine, the team's leading passer last season, back into the lineup. Romine completed just six of 15 passes but added a team-high 61 yards and a touchdown on the ground.
Pearson's status for the bowl game has not been determined, but Air Force surely hopes he'll be in the lineup.
The 5'9" senior has brought a diversity to the offense so rarely seen under Calhoun. His stat line (1,513 yards, 14 TDs, 3 INTs, 59.3 completion percentage) looks like something Marcus Mariota may put up over three weekends.
Most major college quarterbacks would laugh at that line being a check in the "positive" column. Yet, for a team that couldn't manage double-digit touchdown passes either of the last two seasons, Pearson has been a godsend.
"There was a big misconception of him," Air Force offensive coordinator Mike Thiessen told David Ramsey of The Gazette last month. "We've known all along that he can spin it pretty good and that he was the total package, but we were happy to let other people think that he wasn't, so we could surprise them a little bit."
Western Michigan doesn't create its balance via the quarterback position, but it does have two young stars in the midst of breakout seasons.
Quarterback Zach Terrell threw for 3,146 yards and 23 touchdowns during the regular season, completing 70 percent of his passes and becoming one of the MAC's best all-around playmakers. Terrell has completed at least 69 percent of his passes in each of his last five games and hasn't dipped below the 56 percent mark all season.
For all his stellar play, though, Terrell is not the best player on his young offense. That distinction would go to true freshman Jarvion Franklin, perhaps the nation's best running back who no one knows. Franklin tied for third nationally with 24 rushing touchdowns behind Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon and Boise State's Jay Ajayi.
Western Michigan running backs coach Mike Hart—yes, that one—offered this assessment of his protege to Sports Illustrated's Martin Rickman:
"The thing that he has—that every great back has to have—is great vision. One thing you can’t teach a kid is to see a hole, you can’t teach him to get to that hole. He has great vision and great feet and great acceleration. It surprised me a lot. He’s hard to tackle. He’s slippery. The thing that’s going to set him over the top is getting him to use his size and be really physical on a consistent basis. He turns it on and turns it off, but if he can be physical on every single snap, which he has the capability of doing, then I truly believe he’ll be unstoppable.
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Franklin's ascent has been vital in Western Michigan's rejuvenation under head coach P.J. Fleck. The second-year coach, who just turned the ripe age of 34 last month, turned a program that went 1-11 his first season into a dangerous up-and-comer. He was named the MAC Coach of the Year and has become so renowned nationally that his name has even been thrown around as a potential candidate at Michigan.
Odds remain against Fleck getting such a high-profile job, but he's been instrumental in drumming up support for the program.
"Some people think I'm crazy, some people think I'm insane or whatever people think I am," Fleck told David Drew of MLive.com last month. "I know this: We have something special to watch and a wonderful product that's not far from home that truly is the future of college football with what we're accomplishing and trying to accomplish in the future years."
Fleck will need both facets of his offense to fire on all cylinders against Air Force. The Falcons have limited opponents to 17 touchdowns through the air this season on a relatively paltry 55.6 percent. Their run defense has been a little more prone to allow scores but has held opponents under four yards per carry.
With Western Michigan also excelling in run defense, something will have to give for both teams. Given the relative health of the Broncos, I like them to pull off a close victory.
Score Prediction: Western Michigan 34, Air Force 28
Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter.
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