Armed Forces Bowl 2015: Preview, Predictions for Houston vs. Pittsburgh
It used to be that six- and seven-win teams wouldn't sniff a January bowl game, so what a treat it must be for the Pittsburgh Panthers and the Houston Cougars to square off in the Armed Forces Bowl this year.
For Pitt, you look back at the schedule and quite frankly, there isn't a whole lot to like as far as big wins and memorable moments. The Panthers started 3-0, which included a 30-20 victory at Boston College, but followed it up with six losses in their next seven games, counting a 21-10 loss to Akron.
But quarterback Chad Voytik and company rallied in the final two weeks of the regular season with impressive victories against Syracuse and Miami to reach the all-important six-win mark and become bowl-eligible. The late-season push paid off, and the program will get an additional month of practice to not only prepare for Houston, but continue to get better as a whole.
Most folks are familiar with Houston from the occasional flirtation with an undefeated season or the offense that has, for so many years, put up plenty of big numbers through the air. The 2014 campaign got off to a slow start and the Cougars sat at 2-3 heading into an Oct. 11 contest with Memphis in which Houston emerged victorious.
That led to four more wins in the final six games of the season, an on Saturday Houston put up an admirable fight in a 38-31 loss to Cincinnati on the road. The Cougars will now have a chance to reach eight wins for a third straight year.
Here's what you need to know:
Date: Friday, January 2
Time: 12 p.m. ET
Place: Fort Worth, Texas
TV: ESPN
Tale of the Tape
1 of 7The biggest difference between the two teams is in the ground game, where Pitt averages over 100 more yards per contest. One of the main keys for Houston will be closing that gap either with good defense or a strong rushing attack of its own.
Pittsburgh Keys to Victory
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Capitalize on late-season momentum
Whatever the Pitt Panthers were eating for breakfast in the final two weeks of the regular season, well, don't stop now. Despite a woeful midseason stretch in which Pitt looked hapless and like it belonged at the bottom of the ACC barrel, the team somehow managed to get victories in the final two weeks, one of which was a 12-point win at Miami.
Feed the Beast
The beast is Pitt running back James Conner, who's also on the short list of players you'd least want to tackle in the open field. At 6'2" and 250 pounds, Conner is one of the toughest backs in football and his 24 touchdowns on the ground prove it. In order for Pitt to have a shot at winning, it must establish a ground game with Conner and churn out long drives that wear out the defense.
Find ways to get chunk yardage
While one of the main keys will obviously be to get James Conner going on the ground (as it is in any Pitt game), being able to mix in a few big plays could really put the Panthers in strong position to win. Wide receiver Tyler Boyd has 1,149 yards and eight scores on the season, but Voytik hasn't been more than a game manager for much of the year.
When Conner goes nuts, that may work, but with a month to prepare Houston is likely going to force Voytik to make things happen. If he can do that early in the game, it should result not only in points, but a more porous defense on subsequent drives.
Houston Keys to Victory
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Stop the beast
It's not rocket science here. If Pittsburgh's best offense is a steady dose of James Conner, Houston's top priority has to be limiting him and those long, grind-it-out drives that tire the defense and take time off the clock. When those drives end in a touchdown, they're especially dangerous to the outcome. Fortunately, the Cougars have a stout run defense that ranks 31st in yards allowed per game and has only allowed 200 or more in one contest.
Hold Pitt to fewer than 20 points
The Cougars give up 19.5 points per game, an impressive mark in the current age of high-flying offenses, regardless of what conference you play in. They won't be facing one of those dizzying, points-scoring machines in Pitt, but they will face a squad that has been through an ACC schedule and knows what tough defense looks like. If Houston equals its mark in points allowed per game, it's going to have to make room for a new bowl trophy.
Get Multiple receivers involved
Deontay Greenberry is the go-to player at wideout with seven touchdown catches. But for a passing offense to be effective, it must force defenses to think about more than just one player. That's where guys like Markeith Ambles and Demarcus Ayers come in. The two have combined for 60 grabs with 777 yards receiving and five touchdowns. If either guy can have a big day and take the pressure off Greenberry, the passing attack will hit full stride.
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Pittsburgh Players to Watch
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RB James Conner
You should probably be familiar with Pitt running back James Conner at this point in the season and if you aren't, well, that's on you. The 250-pound sophomore back has 1,675 yards rushing on the season to go along with 24 touchdowns, and that's at over six yards per clip as well.
Conner has an NFL future and ironically enough, the only team to slow him down at all was Syracuse, which held him to just 38 yards in a losing effort. Conner will likely get the ball on Pitt's first play from scrimmage, its second play from scrimmage and, well, you get the picture.
As great as the passing offenses have been throughout college football, the spotlight has shone brightly upon running backs. Conner is the best player you haven't watched enough of, but you'll get that chance on January 2.
WR Tyler Boyd
We're not intentionally slighting the defense by excluding it from our "players to watch" slide, but you shouldn't arrive at the end of the season without having watched receiver Tyler Boyd do his thing. He's another NFL player in the Panthers offense and has 1,149 yards and eight touchdowns on the season.
The 6'2", 190-pound sophomore has five games with more than 120 yards receiving, which includes four out of the team's final five games.
While Conner will be the catalyst behind any success Pitt does have on offense, what Boyd contributes should be equally as important.
Houston Players to Watch
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WR Deontay Greenberry
Since hauling in over 500 yards receiving as a freshman, wide receiver Deontay Greenberry has been the most explosive player in Houston's offense. As a sophomore, he had 82 catches for 1,202 yards and 11 touchdowns. While his production has fallen a bit in his junior season, he's no less dangerous because of it.
Greenberry still has 68 catches for 756 yards and four scores. At 6'3", 200 pounds, he provides a big target for quarterback Greg Ward Jr., and you'd like to see that result in more scores down in the red zone.
As yet another player in this contest with an NFL future, Greenberry will show up with his best game of the season in hopes of capturing the first bowl win of his career.
LB Efrem Oliphant
Historically, Houston hasn't had very many great defenses in college football, but 2014 is a different beast from what we're used to seeing, and if 11 men make up that ferocious unit allowing fewer than 20 points per game, linebacker Efrem Oliphant is the heart and soul of the whole operation.
With a whopping 129 tackles on the season, Oliphant ranks 10th in the nation. But when you watch him play, he doesn't just make tackles. He also has a pair of interceptions, 3.5 sacks and a forced fumble.
He's one of those players who always finds himself around the ball, and at 6'1", 220 pounds, his athleticism gives him a chance to make more plays than others. He'll be a critical part of the effort to slow down James Conner.
What They're Saying
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Pittsburgh head coach Paul Chryst, on getting to play one more game, via Pittsburgh's official team site: "We are very appreciative of the chance to play a 13th game this year and do it against a quality Houston team. Our program looks forward to the entire experience—on and off the field—in Texas."
Houston head coach Tony Levine won't be returning in 2015, according to Travis Haney of ESPN, who reports that the a meeting between Levine and athletic director Mack Rhoades is expected to take place on Monday, after which an official announcement will be made.
Prediction
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Predicting bowl season is different than trying to figure out regular-season games because there are many more factors to consider. How did each team finish out the season? Does one program have more to play for? How many guys who were previously banged up will be healthy?
All of that plays into bowl season, and both teams are coming off strong finishes, even though Houston fell to Cincinnati. Last year, Pittsburgh beat Bowling Green in the postseason, but the victory came by just three points.
Houston hasn't had a bowl win since January of 2012 when it knocked off Penn State to finish the year with just one loss. The drought can't be sitting well with players, and the motivation edge has to belong to the team from the Group of Five conference.
The Panthers are playing their best football of the season, but the offense is still largely one-dimensional. With a stout front seven and a month to prepare for James Conner, the Cougars will be ready and able to slow down Pitt's rushing attack. Houston will get a big bowl win over the team from the ACC, its first in three years.
Houston 30, Pittsburgh 17
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