Cotton Bowl 2015: Preview, Predictions for Baylor vs. Michigan State
Even with the College Football Playoff stealing most of the sizzle of New Year's Day, there will be no shortage of conference pride in the remaining bowl games. That might not be more evident anywhere than it will be in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, where No. 5 Baylor will do battle with eighth-ranked Michigan State.
Representing the Big 12, the Bears will look to prove that they were deserving of a spot in the much-talked about playoff, while the Spartans will aim to add a signature win to the reputation of the Big Ten. Factor in Baylor's high-powered offense squaring off with Michigan State's dominant defense and the Cotton Bowl figures to be one of the most interesting games of the college football bowl season.
Will the Bears leave the playoff committee with regrets, or will the Spartans steal the show? We'll find out on New Year's Day, but until then, here's everything you need to know about this year's Cotton Bowl:
Date: Thursday, Jan. 1, 2015
Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
Place: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
TV: ESPN
Spread: Baylor (-1.5), via Odds Shark
Tale of the Tape
1 of 7Check out this statistical breakdown of the Bears and the Spartans in the interactive graphic above.
Both teams' offenses are relatively high-powered, although Michigan State appears to have a significant advantage when it comes to defense. Turnovers could prove to be the key to the game, as the Spartans will head to Arlington with a plus-33 advantage when it comes to takeaways.
Baylor Keys to Victory
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Maintain Momentum
Despite the letdown that came with its perceived playoff snub, Baylor has been playing as well as any team in the country for the past month. Since their Oct. 18 loss to West Virginia, the Bears have racked up four double-digit victories, with their only close call coming in a 48-46 victory over Texas Tech.
In order to beat the Spartans, Baylor will have to continue to play at the level that kept it a part of the playoff discussion. That, of course, will be easier said than done, but it's hard to imagine that Art Briles won't be placing an emphasis on his program making a national statement.
Lock Up Langford
The Big Ten has no shortage of talented backs, and Michigan State's Jeremy Langford is one of the best. In 12 games this season, the 6'1", 208-pounder has rushed for 1,360 yards, adding 19 touchdowns to his stat line.
In order to put pressure on quarterback Connor Cook, Baylor will have to contain Langford and make the Spartans one-dimensional. That could require the Bears taking an early lead and making Michigan State play catch-up.
Michigan State Keys to Victory
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Bully The Bears
As the Spartans proved in last year's Rose Bowl win over Stanford, their program possesses a level of toughness largely unmatched throughout the country. Michigan State has proven to be one of the most physical teams in the nation on both sides of the ball, a philosophy instilled by head coach Mark Dantonio.
That will need to show up again for the Spartans to pick up their second consecutive New Year's Day bowl win, with their style of play contrasting the Bears' run-and-gun style. The longer the Cotton Bowl looks like a traditional game, the more it will favor Michigan State, who is seemingly the more balanced team.
Look For Lippett
The Big Ten's best wide receiver, Tony Lippett, could keep the Spartans in the game should it turn into a shootout. The 6'3", 185-pounder has the ability to high point balls and has been Cook's favorite weapon over the course of the past two seasons.
Look for Michigan State to target Lippett early in order to open up some potential lanes for Langford. The Spartans are one of the more balanced offenses in the country, and they have no problem gaining yards through the air or on the ground.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Baylor Players to Watch
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Bryce Petty
A potential Heisman Trophy finalist, Bryce Petty has proven to be one of the nation's top quarterbacks this season. The 6'3", 230-pound senior has thrown for 3,305 yards and 26 touchdowns, while only tossing six interceptions on the season.
The Bears will need a big game from Petty in his college finale, as he faces one of the best defenses that he will have seen in his college career. Dantonio and defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi should have something special dialed up for Petty, who has spearheaded the nation's top scoring offense.
Shock Linwood
While the Bears are primarily viewed as a passing team, they also possess plenty of ability on the ground. A lot of that has had to do with the play of sophomore Shock Linwood, who has rushed for 1,226 yards and 16 touchdowns throughout the 2014 season.
Look for Baylor to lean on Linwood, as he's received 20 or more carries in three of the Bears' last four games. The success that he has against Michigan State's talented run defense could go a long way toward determining the Cotton Bowl's outcome, as Linwood helps provide balance to the Bears' high-powered attack.
Michigan State Players to Watch
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Connor Cook
While Petty may attract most of the headlines, there's another pretty good quarterback in the Cotton Bowl who also could be playing in the final game of his college career. In fact, some have projected Cook to be a first-round NFL pick next May, as the 6'4", 218-pounder has thrown for 2,900 yards and 22 touchdowns in his junior season, leading the Spartans to a 10-2 record.
Like Baylor, Michigan State's success will largely be determined by the play of its signal-caller. That means that the Spartans will need a big game from Cook, as he could could be looking to potentially raise his draft stock for the spring.
Shilique Calhoun
A two-time first-team All-Big Ten selection, Shilique Calhoun is one of the nation's top defensive ends. In 12 games this season, the junior has tallied 6.5 sacks, making a living in opponents' backfields.
If MSU is going to rattle Petty, expect Calhoun to play a key role in it. Pressure could also come from defensive end Marcus Rush, who has benefited from offensive lines shifting their attention toward his all-conference teammate.
What They're Saying
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Briles on Baylor's case to make the College Football Playoff, per Max Olson of ESPN:
"My case would be, take the top 10 universities in the nation, put 'em on the wall, take the names off of them, all right? Look at the résumés and find four that are better. Coach [Tom] Osborne, who's a Hall of Fame coach: If Nebraska had our résumé, would you have them in the final four? Barry Alvarez with Wisconsin: If Wisconsin had our résumé, would you have them in the final four? Tyrone Willingham. Stanford, Washington, Notre Dame. If they had our résumé, would you vote them in the final four? That would be my case. Look at the résumés and then make a decision.
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Dantonio on the Spartans' 2014 campaign, per Matt Charboneau of The Detroit News: "It's not always the success that you have but how you handle the success and how you handle the failures. I think that's part of growth, and college football is about growth in individuals."
Prediction
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While Baylor could have justifiably made the playoff and Michigan State was out of the hunt in early November, this game has Spartans victory written all over it. No matter how they spin it, the Bears are disappointed to be heading to the Cotton Bowl, and that's a feeling that often shows up on the field.
Michigan State, meanwhile, is looking to add legitimacy to its 10-2 record, having been beaten by its two major opponents of the season in Oregon and Ohio State. Baylor has a signature win already over TCU but still feels like it should be playing for more.
Expect a shootout of sorts, with Cook and Lippett matching Petty's big-play ability. In the end, Michigan State's toughness should be the difference, as the Spartans have been here before and know what it takes to win.
Final Score: Michigan State 49, Baylor 42
Ben Axelrod is Bleacher Report's Ohio State lead writer. You can follow him on Twitter @BenAxelrod. Unless noted otherwise, all quotes obtained firsthand. All statistics courtesy of cfbstats.com and recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
