NFL Playoff Picture: Analyzing the Latest Scenarios for Week 16

Time is running out.

Over the weekend, the playoff picture in the NFL became a little clearer. Three teams in the AFC and one in the NFC locked up playoff berths. The New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos are division champions, while the Arizona Cardinals are no worse than a wild-card team.

That means eight spots are left for the 17 clubs that are still alive to play some extra football this season.

How will it all shake out? We offer some suggestions in terms of the teams with the best odds in each conference.

We return once again to give you the playoff picture in the league as it currently stands with two weeks to play. There’s a look at eight games in Week 16 that will have the biggest impact on the upcoming postseason. We also include each contender’s remaining schedule, as well as all playoff-clinching or division-clinching scenarios this Sunday and Monday.

It makes for another fascinating and suspenseful week.

Current AFC Playoff Seeding

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AFC No. 1 Seed: New England Patriots (11-3)

After a Week 4 loss at Kansas City, many felt the Patriots were done.

Three months later, those critics are indeed correct. New England is finished…winning another AFC East title. The team wrapped up a sixth straight divisional crown courtesy of a 41-13 victory over the Miami Dolphins.

Two more wins and the Pats will once again be done…as in wrapping up home-field advantage in the conference playoffs.

Remaining Schedule: at Jets (3-11), vs. Bills (8-6)

AFC No. 2 Seed: Denver Broncos (11-3)

The magic number in the Mile High City is currently four.

A fourth consecutive win on Sunday led to a fourth straight AFC West title as the Broncos completed a season sweep of the San Diego Chargers, 22-10.

The offense continues to rely on running back C.J. Anderson and an improved ground game, something Peyton Manning and company will need in order to get past the potent Patriots in the AFC.

Remaining Schedule: at Bengals (9-4-1), vs. Raiders (2-12)

AFC No. 3 Seed: Indianapolis Colts (10-4)

Quarterback Andrew Luck continues to make things interesting for his team.

He also continues to win despite having a penchant for mistakes. The Colts are headed back to the playoffs for a third straight year. A 17-10 win over the Houston Texans gave Indianapolis a second straight AFC South title.

However, time is running out in terms of the Colts’ chance of securing a first-round bye in the upcoming playoffs. The club is still one game behind both the Patriots and Broncos in the conference standings and lost to both teams earlier this season.

Remaining Schedule: at Cowboys (10-4), at Titans (2-12)

AFC No. 4 Seed: Cincinnati Bengals (9-4-1)

Suddenly, the defending champions from the AFC North, which realistically could send three teams to the playoffs for the second time in four years, have become a dangerous road team. Sunday’s 30-0 victory at Cleveland was the Bengals’ fourth straight away from home.

A win on Monday night against the always-dangerous Denver Broncos would put Marvin Lewis’ unpredictable team in the playoffs for a fourth consecutive year.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Broncos (11-3), at Steelers (9-5)

AFC No. 5 Seed: Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5)

The team’s wacky season may wind up having a happy ending.

Thanks to Sunday’s 27-20 victory at Atlanta, the Steelers can clinch a playoff berth this week with a win over visiting Kansas City.

And if Pittsburgh can win out over the Chiefs and Bengals, Mike Tomlin and his talented club will have captured their first AFC North title since 2010.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Chiefs (8-6), vs. Bengals (9-4-1)

AFC No. 6 Seed: Baltimore Ravens (9-5)

It wasn’t pretty, but a win is a win, and the Baltimore defense was the catalyst in a 20-12 victory over Jacksonville. The Ravens can actually clinch a playoff berth this week with a victory at Houston and some cooperation from some of the other contenders in the AFC.

Remaining Schedule: at Texans (7-7), vs. Browns (7-7)

Current NFC Playoff Seeding

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NFC No. 1 Seed: Arizona Cardinals (11-3)

The Cardinals keep on losing players and yet continue to win games.

Lost in the fact that this team will start a third different quarterback this Sunday is the realization that this club still owns the best record in the NFC.

According to Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com, Ryan Lindley is the next man up for Arizona this Sunday night at home when the Seattle Seahawks come to town.

It’s pretty simple for Bruce Arians’ resourceful club: With a victory this weekend, the Cards would clinch a division title and home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Seahawks (10-4), at 49ers (7-7)

NFC No. 2 Seed: Detroit Lions (10-4)

For only the second time since 2000, but the second time in four seasons, the Lions have won at least 10 games.

But how many victories will it take to wrap up a playoff berth?

Detroit closes the season on the road against a pair of NFC North rivals it has already defeated this season. In fact, the Lions own a perfect record against divisional rivals in 2014. A victory at Chicago and a Green Bay loss at Tampa would give this franchise its first division title since 1993.

Remaining Schedule: at Bears (5-9), at Packers (10-4)

NFC No. 3 Seed: Dallas Cowboys (10-4)

Two weeks ago, this team was taken apart at home by the Philadelphia Eagles and trailed the Birds by one game in the NFC East.

Two weeks later, the Cowboys left the City of Brotherly Love with a 38-27 win and the outright lead in the division.

Now the bigger question: What about the NFL’s rushing leader’s availability for Sunday? “Obviously, DeMarco Murray has a broken bone in his hand,” Cowboys executive Stephen Jones told KRLD-FM, via Dan Hanzus of NFL.com. “At the same time, he hasn't been ruled out..."

This should be interesting.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Colts (10-4), at Redskins (3-11)

NFC No. 4 Seed: New Orleans Saints (6-8)

The Saints cruised to a 31-15 victory over the Bears in Chicago on Monday night. The victory gave the club the outright lead in the disappointing NFC South.

It’s simple this week for Drew Brees and company. A win over the visiting Falcons on Sunday and a loss by the Carolina Panthers would give the Saints a division title.

Of course, nothing has been simple when it comes to the Saints, who have lost four straight games at the Superdome.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Falcons (5-9), at Buccaneers (2-12)

NFC No. 5 Seed: Seattle Seahawks (10-4)

Winners of four straight after a 6-4 start, you are starting to hear that “no one wants to play the Seahawks” sentiment by numerous people.

A team that gave up 24 points in a loss to the Chiefs last month has surrendered a total of 27 points in the last four games, which should make a lot of opponents nervous.

The defending Super Bowl champions can wrap up a playoff spot with a win at Arizona and some help this week. But it’s worth noting that even a victory over the Cardinals would not give the team the NFC West title just yet.

Remaining Schedule: at Cardinals (11-3), vs. Rams (6-8)

NFC No. 6 Seed: Green Bay Packers (10-4)

The Packers dropped the ball literally and figuratively on Sunday at Orchard Park as the team fell to the Bills, 21-13. Green Bay saw its five-game winning streak go by the wayside as Aaron Rodgers suffered through a subpar afternoon in the setback.

Still, the Packers have numerous ways to reach the playoffs this weekend, even if they are bitten by the upset bug on Sunday at Tampa.

Remaining Schedule: at Buccaneers (2-12), vs. Lions (10-4)

Teams on the Bubble

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AFC

Kansas City Chiefs (8-6)

The Chiefs snapped a three-game losing streak on Sunday with a 31-13 rout of the Oakland Raiders. While the AFC West title now belongs to the Denver Broncos, a second straight trip to the playoffs remains a slight possibility for Kansas City.

Remaining Schedule: at Steelers (9-5), vs. Chargers (8-6)

San Diego Chargers (8-6)

The Bolts have been one of those roller-coaster teams this season, and that erratic play may cost them a return to the postseason.

A 22-10 loss to the Denver Broncos was the team’s second straight setback after three consecutive wins... which was preceded by three straight losses...which came after a five-game winning streak.

You get the picture.

Remaining Schedule: at 49ers (7-7), at Chiefs (8-6)

Buffalo Bills (8-6)

Kudos go to head coach Doug Marrone and defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, who helped pave the way for a 21-13 surprise of the Green Bay Packers on Sunday. The playoffs are still a bit of a long shot, but a victory in either of their last two games would give the Bills their first winning season since 2004.

Remaining Schedule: at Raiders (2-12), at Patriots (11-3)

Houston Texans (7-7)

It’s been a nice bounce-back season for a franchise that won only two games in 2013. Unfortunately, head coach Bill O’Brien is running out of quarterbacks, and despite big years from running back Arian Foster and defensive end J.J. Watt, the playoffs are a long shot.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Ravens (9-5), vs. Jaguars (2-12)

Miami Dolphins (7-7)

Since winning the AFC East in 2008, the Dolphins have failed to post a winning season or reach the playoffs. They still have a shot at both, but the former scenario appears much more logical than the latter.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Vikings (6-8), vs. Jets (3-11)

Cleveland Browns (7-7)

Be it Brian Football or Johnny Football, the Browns have dropped three consecutive games following their 7-4 start. While the offensive issues are evident, Cleveland’s run defense has been a major problem as well.

Remaining Schedule: at Panthers (5-8-1), at Ravens (9-5)

NFC

Philadelphia Eagles (9-5)

After winning 10 consecutive regular-season games at home, the Eagles have dropped two straight in Philadelphia to the Seahawks and Cowboys. Four more turnovers in Sunday night’s loss to Dallas brought the team’s total to 34 in 14 games this season.

Remaining Schedule: at Redskins (3-11), at Giants (5-9)

Carolina Panthers (5-8-1)

The defending division champions have won two straight games for the first time since opening 2-0 this season. They still have a shot of becoming the first team to ever win consecutive NFC South titles but obviously need a little help.

Remaining Schedule: vs. Browns (7-7), at Falcons (5-9)

Atlanta Falcons (5-9)

The NFC’s No. 1 seed in 2012 with a 13-3 record has won a combined nine games these last two seasons. But victories over the next two weeks would give the Falcons the NFC South title.

Remaining Schedule: at Saints (6-8), vs. Panthers (5-8-1)

Teams out of Contention

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These 11 teams have been mathematically eliminated from the 2014 NFL playoffs. Clubs are listed in alphabetical order in each conference.

AFC

Jacksonville Jaguars: It’s a fourth straight year of double-digit losses for a franchise that reached the conference title game twice in its first five seasons of existence. Since reaching the playoffs in 2007, the Jaguars own a disturbing 33-77 record.

New York Jets: Once upon a time, the Jets were making consecutive appearances in the AFC title game. Now New York will miss the playoffs for a fourth straight year, and the team’s 11 losses are the most under head coach Rex Ryan.

Oakland Raiders: The numbers are disturbing—no playoff appearances since reaching the Super Bowl in 2002. The silver and black is now a combined 55-135 the last 12 seasons.

Tennessee Titans: Since finishing 2008 with the best record in the league, the Titans have been less than memorable. The team is out of the playoffs for the sixth consecutive season and has lost 12 games for the first time since 2005.

NFC

Chicago Bears: The Bears haven’t been to the playoffs since 2010, when they wound up hosting the NFC title game. Monday night’s 31-15 loss to the Saints was the club’s third straight setback and ensured Chicago of a losing season for the first time since 2009.

Minnesota Vikings: Sunday’s loss to the Detroit Lions knocked Mike Zimmer’s team out of the postseason. Still, the Vikings have won six games this season, one more than all of last season.

New York Giants: As we all know, the Giants won the Super Bowl back in 2011. Otherwise, the team has missed the playoffs five of the other six seasons dating back to 2009. New York is in the midst of back-to-back losing campaigns for the first time since 2003 and 2004.

St. Louis Rams: With wins in their last two games, the Rams can avoid an eighth consecutive losing season. But this franchise still hasn’t made a playoff appearance since 2004.

San Francisco 49ers: Three straight trips to the NFC title game, including an appearance in Super Bowl XLVII, have currently morphed into a three-game losing streak—the longest under head coach Jim Harbaugh.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Arguably the busiest organization this past offseason, the Bucs have not won a home game in 2014 and will finish with at least one dozen losses for the second straight year.

Washington Redskins: Since winning the NFC East in 2012, the Redskins are a combined 6-24 in their last 30 games. The team has already clinched last place in the division; it's the sixth time in seven years the club will finish in the NFC East basement.

AFC Seeding Odds

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AFC No. 1 Seed

Best Odds: New England Patriots

Long Shot: Indianapolis Colts

Consecutive victories over the New York Jets and the visiting Buffalo Bills give the Patriots the top seed in the AFC for the third time in five years. Tom Brady and company already own wins over those two teams this year and scored a combined 64 points in those wins. The Colts’ earlier loss to New England this season hurts them considerably here.

Prediction: Patriots

AFC No. 2 Seed

Best Odds: Denver Broncos

Long Shot: Pittsburgh Steelers

It’s hard to fathom that the Broncos would lose out and put themselves in a position to miss out on a first-round bye. The talented Steelers close with two straight home games, but are we ready to consistently count on this team?

Prediction: Broncos

AFC No. 3 Seed

Best Odds: Indianapolis Colts

Long Shot: Cincinnati Bengals

The AFC South champions own only a half-game lead and did defeat the Bengals earlier this season. Of course, unless the Colts plan on playing for a tie in the next two weeks, the tiebreaker is of no consequence. Cincinnati closes with tough outings against the Broncos and Steelers.

Prediction: Colts

AFC No. 4 Seed

Best Odds: Pittsburgh Steelers

Long Shot: Baltimore Ravens

A victory over the Chiefs on Sunday would put Mike Tomlin’s team in the playoffs, and a two-game sweep of Kansas City and Cincinnati would give the Steelers the AFC North title. The Ravens are more than capable of winning their last two games as well (Texans and Browns), but that 2-3 divisional record is a problem.

Prediction: Steelers

AFC No. 5 Seed

Best Odds: Baltimore Ravens

Long Shot: San Diego Chargers

How do we give the Ravens the edge over the Chargers, who beat them a few weeks ago in Baltimore? Baltimore still owns a one-game lead in the overall standings over the Bolts, who finish with a pair of road games this season.

Prediction: Chargers

AFC No. 6 Seed

Best Shot: Cincinnati Bengals

Long Shot: Buffalo Bills

The defending AFC North champions are back in the playoffs for a fourth straight year with a Monday night win over the Broncos. But these Bengals have become as unpredictable as the Steelers these days.

Prediction: Bengals

NFC Seeding Odds

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NFC No. 1 Seed

Best Odds: Seattle Seahawks

Long Shot: Detroit Lions

It’s pretty simple: If the defending Super Bowl champions run the table, they would be the top seed in the NFC for the second straight year. The Lions finish their season with a pair of divisional road games and could be hard-pressed to pull off a two-game sweep.

Prediction: Seahawks

NFC No. 2 Seed

Best Odds: Green Bay Packers

Long Shot: Dallas Cowboys

The loss to the Bills on Sunday put a dent in the team’s plans on capturing the top seed in the NFC. The Packers can clinch a playoff berth with a win and some help this week and can win a fourth straight NFC North title by winning their final two games. Dallas returns home this week, but is that a good thing this season?

Prediction: Packers

NFC No. 3 Seed

Best Odds: Dallas Cowboys

Long Shot: Philadelphia Eagles

A Dallas win over the Colts on Sunday and a Philadelphia loss at Washington on Saturday would give the Cowboys their first NFC East title since 2009. The Eagles not only sit one game behind in the division but all five of their losses this season have come within the conference.

Prediction: Cowboys

NFC No. 4 Seed

Best Odds: New Orleans Saints

Long Shot: Atlanta Falcons

A victory by the Saints at the Superdome this Sunday afternoon would eliminate the Falcons from the NFC South race but wouldn't eliminate the defending division champion Carolina Panthers. Atlanta, which beat New Orleans in overtime in Week 1, has not swept this series since 2005.

Prediction: Saints

NFC No. 5 Seed

Best Odds: Arizona Cardinals

Long Shot: Dallas Cowboys

The Cardinals are the only team in the NFC to date to clinch a playoff appearance. Given the way the Seahawks are playing these days, the division’s first-place team could be hard-pressed to avenge a 19-3 loss back in Week 12. You get the feeling that the Cowboys are either NFC East champions or on the outside looking in.

Prediction: Cardinals

NFC No. 6 Seed

Best Odds: Detroit Lions

Long Shot: Philadelphia Eagles

A two-game sweep of the Bears and Packers, both on the road, will give the Lions a dozen wins for the first time since 1991—the last time the Lions won a playoff game. With two straight losses, both at home, the Eagles have backed themselves into a bit of a corner.

Prediction: Lions

Week 16 Games with Biggest Playoff Implications

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San Diego (8-6) at San Francisco (7-7): While the Niners have been officially eliminated, Philip Rivers and company still have a shot of getting to the playoffs. Can San Diego’s erratic defense exploit struggling San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick? 

Atlanta (5-9) at New Orleans (6-8): It took a bit, but the Saints are now in first place all by themselves in the NFC South. But the Falcons, who beat New Orleans in overtime way back in Week 1, are still very much alive.

Baltimore (9-5) at Houston (7-7): With a win and some help, the Ravens could be back in the playoffs after missing out in 2013. As of this writing, we are not sure who the Texans starting quarterback will be, as both Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tom Savage were injured on Sunday.

Cleveland (7-7) at Carolina (5-8-1): After a promising start, the Browns are suddenly losers of three straight games. It’s been a disappointing year for the Panthers, but despite having twice as many losses as they had a year ago, they can still win the NFC South.

Indianapolis (10-4) at Dallas (10-4): The Colts are AFC South champions for the second straight year, but quarterback Andrew Luck continues to have turnover issues. Can the Cowboys avoid a fifth home loss in eight games this season?

Kansas City (8-6) at Pittsburgh (9-5): Kansas City’s struggling run defense will get a heavy dose of Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell. But Andy Reid has a potent two-headed ground attack with Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis.

Seattle (10-4) at Arizona (11-3): The defending Super Bowl champions shackled the Cardinals, 19-3, in the Pacific Northwest four weeks ago. The NFC West leaders continue to hold onto first place and will start quarterback Ryan Lindley on Sunday night.

Denver (11-3) at Cincinnati (9-4-1): Denver still has a shot at the top seed in the AFC but needs some help. The Bengals remain in undisputed first place in their division but have lost each of their last two home games by 21 points.

Playoff-scenario information courtesy of Joe Ferreira: NFL Playoff Expert at CBSSports.com.