Alabama vs. Missouri: What's Next for Each Team After SEC Championship 2014
Perhaps we should stop suggesting that there is no dominant team this college football season. While parity has dominated for much of the season, a peaking Alabama squad is clearly becoming the nation's top team, a notion it reaffirmed by demolishing Missouri, 42-13, in the SEC Championship Game.
The Crimson Tide continued their ascent into a terrifying offensive powerhouse, piling up 504 total yards. Despite hanging on for much of the first half, the Tigers were largely helpless to stop Blake Sims and Co., who had a 13:26-minute edge in time of possession.
Neither team's season is over yet, however, as the Tide's victory has important postseason implications for both squads. Obviously Alabama will have higher stakes to play for in the playoff, but Missouri's bowl game aspirations will have future consequences as the Tigers continue building their profile three years into their SEC membership. After bringing home a Cotton Bowl victory last January, another premier victory over a Power Five conference would further assimilate Mizzou into the SEC.
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Putting a forward-looking lens on the SEC Championship Game, let's analyze how both teams may fare in the postseason based on their performances on Saturday.
Missouri: Build the Program Profile
The Tigers have been an underrated squad during Gary Pinkel's tenure, having won double-digit games in five of the past eight seasons. Nevertheless, Missouri has never quite been able to get over the hump into a premier bowl game, as Saturday's loss put them in some ignominious history:
With the defeat, the Tigers will most likely head to a second-tier bowl for an SEC school. The Outback and Citrus (formerly Capital One) Bowls have both traditionally chosen teams from the SEC East, so one of those two appears like the most likely destination for Missouri.
The Tigers would subsequently play a Big Ten or ACC opponent, with Clemson, Maryland, Notre Dame and Minnesota standing out as the most probable selections. Missouri figures to be favored over all except perhaps Clemson, whose quarterback, Deshaun Watson, led the Tigers to their first victory over arch-rival South Carolina since 2008 despite playing on a torn ACL.
Nevertheless, with two consecutive conference championship game appearances, the Tigers have almost totally erased the black sheep label that emerged after their dismal 5-7 debut season in 2012. With four losses and a plus-172 point differential in conference play over the past two seasons, there is little doubt that the Tigers have passed the fallen empires of Florida, Georgia and Tennessee.
Next year will provide a bit of a rebuilding challenge; along with All-American Shane Ray's likely early defection for the NFL, the Tigers are losing eight senior starters, including their top three receivers. But quarterback Maty Mauk will be back for his junior campaign, and even if Ray leaves, Missouri will return seven defensive starters. Thus, expect the Tigers to finally receive some respect in the preseason forecasts next summer.
Alabama: Reestablish the Dynasty
Like the rest of the SEC, Missouri is striving to reach the standard Nick Saban has established in Tuscaloosa. Championships are the expectation in Alabama, and whether the trophies come in the form of crystal balls or leg lamps, the Tide will need to capture their fourth national title in six seasons to call 2014 a success.
As the presumptive No. 1 seed, the Tide will likely play in the Sugar Bowl against either TCU, Florida State, Baylor or Ohio State. The Horned Frogs and Seminoles appear as though they are the likeliest candidates, though TV politics have led analysts to take conflict stances on Alabama's likeliest semifinal opponent:
Regardless of who the Crimson Tide face, they have separated themselves as the best team in the country. Football Outsiders' Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) not only rates the Crimson Tide as the top team in the nation, but Alabama is also the only squad to boast a top-five unit on both offense and defense. Whether it be a defensive struggle or historic offensive slugfest, the Tide have shown the versatility to win through any method.
Most importantly, the last few weeks have validated Saban's controversial preseason decision to stick with Sims at quarterback over much-ballyhooed transfer Jacob Coker. Sims ranked second in the country in QBR headed into the game, and with a massive 92.6 adjusted QBR rating against Missouri, the senior has established himself as one of the nation's top signal-callers.
The one missing ingredient in Bama's championship squads has been an explosive passing game. With that element in tow as well, Alabama must be considered heavy playoff favorites, even with two stiff challenges remaining.
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