
SEC Championship Game 2014: Odds and Final Breakdown of Alabama vs. Missouri
The SEC Championship Game is one of the most hyped events of the college football season—and rightfully so.
This conference has dominated the collegiate ranks, producing seven of the last eight national champions. This year, No. 1 Alabama has a great chance to get back to the big dance, but the road will be even more difficult due to the inaugural College Football Playoff. Before the Crimson Tide can even think about the playoff, they must first contend with a dangerous Missouri team.
The Tigers are on quite a roll entering the title game, winning six straight to end the regular season. Nothing was handed to Missouri, as a win over a surging Arkansas team was necessary to clinch the SEC East. However, Alabama is on a streak of its own, winning seven in a row, including four victories against ranked opponents during that stretch.
Before these teams take the field to decide who will be crowned this year's SEC champion, let's take one final look at all of the game's essential information.
Viewing Information
When: Saturday, December 6
Where: Georgia Dome in Atlanta, Georgia
Time: 4 p.m. ET
Channel: CBS
Live Stream: CBSSports.com
Betting Lines (via Odds Shark):
- Over/Under: 49
- Spread: Alabama -14.5
Preview and Prediction
Alabama's defense has been one of the nation's most dominant units once again this season. The team is ranked second against the run, 54th against the pass, 11th in total defense and fifth in points allowed. Yes, Maty Mauk, Russell Hansbrough and Co. will have a rough time in the title game—that narrative has been beaten to death by now.
Let's go ahead and turn things on their head and talk about the Missouri defense. After all, the Tigers' pass rush will be the biggest key to victory for both teams on Saturday.
Missouri can really get pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The team has several prolific pass-rushers, including SEC sacks leader Shane Ray and Markus Golden, who are more than capable of giving offensive linemen plenty of trouble. In fact, the Tigers are ranked sixth in the nation with a total of 40 sacks on the season. For those of you counting at home, that's an average of 3.33 per game.
Now, here's a fun statistic based off that number, via College GameDay:
That's quite a track record for Missouri; however, Alabama's offensive line has protected its quarterback nicely this year, allowing a total of 11 sacks to rank seventh in the nation.
While Alabama's line has been sturdy, it hasn't been overly consistent against better pass rushes. The Crimson Tide have seen some good pass rushes this year in Ole Miss, Arkansas, LSU and Mississippi State. Alabama went 3-1 over those four games, and each game was decided by a one-score margin.
The reason for that was solid defensive line play. During those games, quarterback Blake Sims was sacked five times and kept in check, completing just 54 percent of his passes, and the backfield duo of T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry combined to average just 3.9 yards per carry.
Here's a telling statement from Gary Danielson of CBS Sports, via Tim McKernan of InsideSTL.com:
"From Gary Danielson: This is not a vintage Alabama football team. This is the first team that can't just roll you with their offensive line.
— Tim McKernan (@tmckernan) December 3, 2014"
Taking care of things up front will also hinder the performance of prolific wide receiver Amari Cooper by limiting the amount of time Sims has to get rid of the football. Less time in the pocket equates to less time in coverage, which leads to more pass breakups and fewer big plays.
So, here's the big question: Will Missouri ride its pass rush to a huge upset win on Saturday?
The answer is no.
While the Tigers will give Alabama's offense a hard time, there's still a concern regarding Missouri's ability to generate offense of its own and get enough points on the board. Considering the Tigers have only eclipsed 30 points just once over their past five games, that doesn't exude much confidence that they'll be able to outscore the Crimson Tide.
Prediction: Alabama 30, Missouri 20
All team statistics and rankings courtesy of NCAA.com and current as of December 5 at 8:30 p.m. ET.
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