Bowl Projections 2014: Updated Playoff Rankings and Ideal Matchups for Top Games
Sports fans are prone to hyperbole, but it's safe to say this is the biggest weekend of college football in years. There are six games that will have a direct impact on the College Football Playoff rankings, which will be released on Sunday.
Starting with the Pac-12 Championship Game between Arizona and Oregon on Friday, the first round of college football's new postseason format figures to become a jumbled mess by the time the last game ends on Saturday night.
While the selection committee has generated its share of controversy, no one can say that what's happened has provided any less drama. If anything, what the committee has done only makes Championship Weekend more impactful, as teams are looking to make one final impression.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Until that fateful moment arrives on Sunday, here's how the current playoff rankings look and the best possible matchups for the semifinal playoff games.
Ideal Playoff Matchups
Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Florida State
It's only fitting to start with a matchup that would take place if things stand pat this weekend. The selection committee came under fire for dropping Florida State, which is the defending national champion and is undefeated heading into the ACC Championship Game, down a spot.
As George Schroeder of USA Today wrote, it seems the committee has gotten lost in all of the outside metrics and forgot the most basic principle of sports is winning:
"The selection committee will determine 'best' teams using several criteria — you know, like 'game control' (which Florida State hasn't exactly exhibited) — but winning has to remain the most important factor. An undefeated Power Five conference champion isn't getting left out of the field unless there are at least five undefeated teams from Power Five conferences. Beat Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship — even in another tight squeeze — and the Seminoles should be in the field.
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If you look at the actual performance, there's a case to be made that Florida State might not even deserve to be ranked ahead of teams like Baylor or Ohio State. But the Seminoles have won all their games, and if that continues, there's no way they will be left out of the playoff.
Despite the uproar around Florida State's drop, the committee might have done the Seminoles a favor in a conspiracy theory from Andrea Adelson of ESPN.com:
"When Jeff Long talks about Florida State, it is almost like he is playing Lingo Bingo. Maybe all those fancy catchphrases like 'game control' and 'eye test' count against Florida State because the committee is trying to set up more appealing AND geographical semifinal matchups.
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Dropping Florida State to No. 4 means a semifinal in the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans against No. 1 Alabama. That is the dream matchup everybody wanted to end last season, a delicious pairing between mentor Nick Saban and mentee Jimbo Fisher.
While the committee certainly wouldn't admit to doing that, who cares if that's the reason? It provides fans with a matchup between college football's most high-profile quarterback (Jameis Winston) and its most high-profile school (Alabama).
By the way, the Seminoles (2013) and Crimson Tide (2011-12) have combined to win the last three national championships.
Given Florida State's erratic play this year, it seems unlikely the Seminoles would advance past the semifinals. Of course, their ability to walk that tightrope means it would be foolish to discount them.
There's also the question of how Alabama quarterback Blake Sims will fare on the big stage. He finished the game against Auburn nicely, but the first-year starter looked awful early with three interceptions.
Nick Saban said after Alabama's win over Auburn that Sims has a tendency to try doing too much when the spotlight is the brightest, via Alex Scarborough of ESPN.com:
"Sometimes, it's a big game, and he starts putting a lot pressure on himself, and he gets a little anxious," Saban said. "I don't think he really processes and makes as good of decisions when he gets like that."
A showdown against the defending national champions in the Sugar Bowl isn't exactly an under-the-radar stage where you can hide flaws. Sims can't afford another bad game like the one he had against Auburn if Alabama wants to win a championship.
The ideal first step in that process would be a matchup with Florida State in Atlanta on January 1.
Rose Bowl: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 3 Baylor
Since no one wants to see chalk hold this weekend, it's only fair that we get a shakeup in the top four. Depending on your perspective, which really means anyone who isn't a TCU fan, Baylor already has a claim to be one of the top four teams.
After all, the Bears defeated the Horned Frogs earlier this season. There might be an argument that TCU's overall body of work is better, but to ignore what Baylor did when the two teams met is illogical, which pretty much sums up committee chairman Jeff Long's rationale, via Jerry Hinnen of CBSSports.com:
"We look at their losses. Baylor's loss is against a West Virginia team that's outside the top 25, and TCU's is against Baylor, who is No. 6 ... We look at many, many different things. Overall, the evaluation -- the human evaluation -- of this is what this committee is designed to do. And I think they've done that in this case with TCU and Baylor.
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Hope isn't lost for Baylor, though. Based on the current playoff rankings, Baylor has the second-hardest matchup of the top playoff contenders, going up against No. 9 Kansas State. Only Oregon, which takes on No. 7 Arizona, has a more difficult task.
With a win against another Top 10 team, as well as the head-to-head win over TCU, Baylor will have fulfilled its duty to get in the College Football Playoff. This also assumes that Ohio State loses to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game.
For the record, TCU also plays this weekend, though, it's got the easiest task of all the contenders against 2-9 Iowa State. Barring a miracle, the Horned Frogs will end the year 11-1 in a tie with Baylor for the Big 12 championship.
It then becomes an examination over the body of work. Don't be surprised if the selection committee listens to the feedback about the Baylor-TCU controversy and changes it if both teams get to 11-1.
This leaves us with Oregon as Baylor's opponent. The Ducks have proven themselves to be one of the two best teams in the country, getting better as the season has gone on. The final test for Mark Helfrich's team will be against an Arizona team that's defeated it in each of the last two years.
A win against the Wildcats in the Pac-12 Championship Game secures Oregon's spot in the playoff, though, it will wait to see if Alabama loses before knowing if it's as the No. 1 or 2 team.
In addition to being the right matchup if everything plays out correctly this weekend, an Oregon vs. Baylor matchup would be one of the most exciting games imaginable.
Everyone knows about the Ducks' high-powered offense, ranking fourth in the country with 45.9 points per game, but Baylor actually leads the nation in scoring (49.8). This is a game that could legitimately draw an over/under of 100 and exceed it.
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.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
