What Has to Happen for Baylor, TCU or Kansas State to Make Playoff?
It's possible that two teams from the Big 12 could make the College Football Playoff. It's also possible that none will.
Currently, the TCU Horned Frogs are No. 3, the Baylor Bears are No. 6 and the Kansas State Wildcats are No. 9 in the latest playoff rankings.
That means the road should be easy for TCU, which squares off against Iowa State (2-9) this week. A win over the Cyclones, and the Horned Frogs are in.
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The road isn't as easy for Baylor or K-State. For starters, they play each other this week, and the loser will likely be knocked out of the playoff hunt. On the flip side, one of those two teams will get a win over a Top 10 team to finish the season.
Since college football is a "what have you done for me lately?" world, the de facto Big 12 Championship Game in Waco couldn't come at a better time for either squad.
Nevertheless, there are plenty of scenarios across the board for all three teams.
Let's take a look at what needs to happen for TCU, Baylor and K-State to get to the playoff.
TCU Horned Frogs
STEP ONE: Beat Iowa State
This is the only step TCU needs to take to make the playoff, and it's nonnegotiable. A win over the Cyclones, and the Horned Frogs are in. A loss and there's virtually no scenario where they'd be in. Either Ohio State, Baylor, K-State or Arizona would be almost guaranteed to take their spot.
There'd be no forgiving a loss to a two-win team, especially without the absolution of a conference title to back it up, which TCU would lose out on if it falls to the Cyclones.
The big thing to consider is—assuming the Horned Frogs win—how they win and, more importantly, how Oregon and Florida State fare. These games will be instrumental to their seeding and where they'll go.
If the Top Four in the playoff rankings—Alabama, Oregon, TCU and Florida State—all win easily, then TCU will likely stay at third and travel to the Rose Bowl to face Oregon. That'll give the Ducks a West Coast advantage.
If Alabama or Oregon loses but TCU and Florida State win, that will open the door for either Ohio State or Baylor to get into the playoff. TCU would move up to the second seed and still travel to the Rose Bowl but face Florida State instead.
In a perfect world in Fort Worth, Alabama, Oregon and Florida State will all lose. That'll give TCU the No. 1 spot in the rankings, meaning it'll head south for the Sugar Bowl, where it'd likely face either Baylor or Michigan State.
Baylor Bears
STEP ONE: Beat K-State
Again, this step is nonnegotiable. The Bears are already on the outside looking in and in need of help, so a loss will burst the Bears' bubble altogether. The beauty of playing No. 9 Kansas State at home is that a win over a Top 10 team is the perfect eye test for the committee, especially on the last week of the season.
A win will also give Baylor at least a share of the Big 12 title—and the committee openly favors conference champions.
STEP TWO: Ohio State loss to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game
The obvious thing about this step is that Ohio State, at No. 5, is one step ahead of the Bears in the playoff rankings. That means, in the committee's mind, a win for the Buckeyes means they'll be the first ones to get in should anybody in the top four falter.
Also, the Pac-12 Championship Game may very well be meaningless. Oregon is No. 2, but more importantly, Arizona is No. 7. Let's say Arizona knocks off the Ducks—it's likely that the Wildcats will pass over the Bears regardless of their result over K-State. But the Ducks will also fall behind Baylor if they beat K-State.
If Oregon wins, then Arizona will fall off. And Oregon will stay in the playoff, effectively taking a spot away from Baylor. Either way, the Pac-12 champion will probably take precedence over the Bears.
STEP THREE: Florida State loss to Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship Game OR Alabama loss to Missouri in SEC Championship Game OR TCU loss to Iowa State
Assuming steps one and two happen, Florida State, TCU or Alabama losing will be the last door that needs to open for Baylor to get into the playoff.
Despite being undefeated, the Seminoles are on the cusp of the playoff at No. 4. A loss to No. 11 Georgia Tech will surely eliminate Jameis Winston and Co. from playoff contention. With Ohio State having theoretically lost, that'll open the door for Baylor to walk into the No. 4 seed.
Now if Alabama or TCU loses but Florida State wins, the same thing will happen, and Baylor will be playoff-bound.
Simply put, the Bears need Ohio State and a Top Four team to lose to get into the playoff.
Now if two or more Top Four teams fall, Baylor could get in that way as well. But with TCU facing off against a two-win team, Oregon looking like the nation's best team and Alabama playing a team outside of the Top 10, it's tough to imagine more than one of those teams falling.
Kansas State Wildcats
STEP ONE: Beat Baylor
This one's easy. K-State is already a long shot for the playoff—the only reason they're in the conversation is thanks largely in part to both UCLA and Mississippi State losing in the same week the Wildcats played lowly Kansas. If the Wildcats want in, they'll need a win over No. 6 Baylor.
Just like the Bears though, the Wildcats get a chance to beat a Top 10 team right before the committee convenes to make its final decisions.
STEP TWO: Oregon beats Arizona in Pac-12 Championship Game
I know what you're thinking—"Kansas State needs all the chaos in the world to get into the playoff; how does No. 2 beating No. 7 help?"
Well, the Wildcats are No. 9 in the playoff standings—meaning they need to catch up five spots to get into the playoff.
If they beat Baylor, they'll likely pass No. 8 Michigan State, who is off this week. That's two spots right there, as the Wildcats will probably pass the Bears in the final standings.
No. 7 is Arizona. Let's say Arizona upsets Oregon. Would the Ducks, who will have just two losses to the same team—a Top 10 team now—fall behind K-State, which also has two losses to Auburn and TCU?
It's debatable but unlikely. K-State needs the easiest road to making up five spots, and No. 7 losing falls into that category. Bill Snyder and Co. want to be in the playoff with the Ducks.
STEP THREE: Ohio State loss to Wisconsin in Big Ten Championship Game
The same reason Baylor needs Ohio State to lose is why K-State needs the Buckeyes to slip up. Ohio State is next in line for a spot should someone in the Top Four falter. The Wildcats don't want the Buckeyes in their way for one of the last spots should one become available.
So if all the steps come true up to this point, K-State will have made up four of the five spots it needs to get in.
STEP FOUR: Florida State loss to Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship Game OR Alabama loss to Missouri in SEC Championship Game OR TCU loss to Iowa State
The final step for K-State to get in is the same one for Baylor—it needs a Top Four team to lose.
This is true for basically any playoff hopeful. If all four teams in the Top Four win this week, they'll all be conference champions, and it'll be unlikely the committee punishes them on the last week.
Kansas State can't worry about any seeding advantages—climbing five spots is hard enough in one week.
But crazier things have happened in the world.
The Wildcats may need a ton of help this week, but a win over Baylor should guarantee the Wildcats a top-tier bowl game.
If just a few more games go their way, who knows?
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