College Football Rankings 2014: Teams Positioned to Crack Top 4 in Final Week
It's a shame that the four-team playoff has devalued the FBS regular season so much.
Looking back, it's amazing to think that anybody tried to argue that swapping out the Bowl Championship Series for the playoff would've meant irreparably harming what is the best regular season in American sports.
The advent of the playoff has merely opened the door for more teams to have a legitimate shot at the national championship, thus lending importance to games that might have been overlooked in previous seasons.
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College football fans can't ask any more of a regular season in which the drama hangs until the final week. So many questions remain unanswered.
Not Going Anywhere
Florida State, Oregon and Alabama
Florida State, Oregon and Alabama would all make the top four as long as they win their respective conferences.
Although the Seminoles are in fourth—behind three one-loss teams—there's no way the selection committee would overlook an unbeaten Power Five team, no matter how questionable its resume is in some fans' minds.
With victories in championship week, Oregon and Alabama would almost certainly position themselves as the top two seeds in the bracket, in whatever order, with FSU probably coming in third.
This much is known. Outside these three teams, it's all up for grabs.
Prospects Looking Good
Baylor
One of the bigger top-four debates surrounds whether Baylor or TCU would be a better Big 12 representative. The Bears beat the Horned Frogs, but the Horned Frogs arguably have the better overall resume.
Baylor's not messing around, with ESPN.com's Jake Trotter reporting that the school hired a public relations firm in order to strengthen its standing in the eyes of the media and general public:
Yahoo Sports' Dan Wetzel gave the Bears their best case for the top four:
CBSSports.com's Tom Fornelli also believes that a head-to-head victory trumps any other argument in this situation:
"I think TCU is better than Baylor. I don’t think my opinion should mean more than Baylor actually beating TCU does.
— Tom Fornelli (@TomFornelli) December 3, 2014"
Baylor has good reason to remain confident that it will make the top four in Week 16. While the Bears obviously benefit from the win over TCU, they could also be hugely helped by recency bias.
It's almost impossible to not value a team's most current games more heavily than its earlier ones. Baylor plays No. 9 Kansas State on Saturday, while TCU will take on two-win Iowa State. A win over the Wildcats should be enough to put the Bears over the top.
Sitting on Shaky Ground
TCU
As mentioned above, TCU may have the high ground now, but that could change by next week. Beating the Cyclones won't do much to strengthen their top-four credentials.
The biggest reason for TCU to remain confident as to its playoff standing—aside from its strength of schedule—is the fact that the Big 12 won't determine a sole conference champion in the event both the Horned Frogs and Bears finish with the same record.
Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby explained how he and the conference's members are taking a hands-off approach when it comes to the playoff, per CBSSports.com's Jon Solomon:
"We don't have any province to say to the playoff committee, 'Baylor won head to head so they need to be our representative.'
The process is about selecting what they consider to be the four best teams. Four best is different than the four most deserving. The most deserving is mostly an objective process in which you might have computer rankings and a bunch of different polls.
"
Baylor being considered outright champions would've been the final nail in TCU's coffin. Instead, the Horned Frogs being a co-champion could provide the committee one more out so as to put them ahead of the Bears.
Of course, if Baylor loses and TCU wins, then the Horned Frogs are all but assured of a top-four spot, and this discussion becomes irrelevant.
Ohio State
The J.T. Barrett injury has cast a lot of doubt on whether the playoff committee would consider sending Ohio State into the playoff. Without Barrett, the Buckeyes are obviously worse, thus their standing as one of the best teams in the country could come under question.
But should that outweigh everything else they've done this year? You can't exactly punish a team for a player getting injured.
Head coach Urban Meyer thinks that injuries to both Barrett and Braxton Miller have proved the overall strength of his team, per Doug Lesmerises of the Northeast Ohio Media Group:
"You're the champion of the Big Ten Conference, you lose one Heisman Trophy candidate before the season and another one in (game 12) that is also a Heisman candidate. I think that's almost a positive, that your team can still go function, and it tells you about the players and talent on your team.
"
Of course, this leaves aside the issues with Ohio State's body of work. The loss to Virginia Tech got worse and worse by the week, while the Buckeyes don't have a ton of worthwhile victories with which to counter.
Ohio State doesn't have much of a chance to get into the top four if Baylor wins, but in the event the Bears lose, the Buckeyes might be able to sneak in ahead of the Horned Frogs based on winning a conference championship game.
Beating somebody as good as Wisconsin might also help to silence any doubt about the team in the eyes of the committee after Barrett's injury.
Don't Count Them Out
Arizona
They still need a lot of help, but the Arizona Wildcats could still manage to make the top four with a win over Oregon and losses by some combination of Florida State, Alabama, Ohio State, Baylor and TCU.
Now, we're talking Skyfall-type levels of confluence in terms of all the moving pieces ending up exactly right. It's still possible, though.
Arizona will have beaten the No. 2 team in the country on two occasions, while the Wildcats' losses came to No. 25 USC and No. 15 UCLA. The first of those came by two points, and the second was on the road. Neither is embarrassing.
It's always fun to envision doomsday scenarios at the end of the college football regular season. Who doesn't love a little anarchy?
Also, seeing the Wildcats in the top four would add a fresh new face to the scene. Rich Rodriguez has done some impressive things in Tucson, and it would be fun to see if he can help get the program to the next level.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
