Biggest Questions Facing Top 25 Teams Heading into Saturday's Week 15 Games
This is it. Everything college football fans have waited for over the past few months has come down to this weekend.
Yes, the 2014 season is coming to a close, but in a way, it only feels like things are getting started. Four conference championship games—the ACC, Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC—have playoff implications in Week 15. The Big 12 also has a pair of key games involving Baylor and TCU.
As many as eight or nine teams are still theoretically in the running for a playoff spot. There's a lot to play for.
Which storylines are worth following Saturday? The answers are in the following slides.
The only criterion is that teams mentioned have to be in the latest College Football Playoff Top 25.
Will Boise State Running Back Jay Ajayi Lead Broncos to a Major Bowl Bid?
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Boise State's Jay Ajayi probably gets more credit for being able to spell his name with just four different letters than he does as a running back.
Yet Ajayi has been one of the most productive backs that few people actually talk about. He's currently fifth nationally with 1,619 yards and tied for second with 24 touchdowns. To put that into context, that's 60 percent of the Broncos' rushing yards and 41 percent of the team's offensive touchdowns.
Ajayi went for a season-high 229 yards last week against Utah State, a phenomenal number when you consider that the Aggies are No. 1 in the Mountain West in run defense. Fresno State, Boise's opponent in the Mountain West title game, is, shall we say, less stingy.
That could mean feeding time for Ajayi and another conference title for the Broncos. With the recent losses to Colorado State and Marshall, Boise State is in the driver's seat to earn a major bowl bid. And Ajayi is the one with his hands on the steering wheel.
Can Kansas State's Passing Game Go Toe-to-Toe with Baylor?
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Quick: Can you guess which team leads the Big 12 in yards per pass attempt?
No, it's not Texas Tech. Not Baylor, either.
It's Kansas State, at 9.1 yards. Snyderball is a strange and ever-changing thing, apparently.
Traditionally, one would think of K-State as a grind-it-out running team. That was certainly true last year, and probably the few years before that. This season? It's been all about quarterback Jake Waters and the one-two punch at receiver with Tyler Lockett and Curry Sexton.
Lockett and Sexton combine to haul in about 69 percent of the Wildcats' passing yards on a per-game basis. There's an argument to be made that those two rank near the top of the Big 12 in terms of pass-catching combos.
K-State also has the best defense in the Big 12, allowing just 20.3 points per game. But if Saturday's game against Baylor gets into a shootout, do the 'Cats have enough firepower to keep up? It's important for Kansas State to have some effectiveness in the running game, but the air attack has been far more potent. It'll have to be again if the points start tallying up.
Will Baylor Try to Pile on the Points Against Kansas State?
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Does Baylor's new PR firm, hired to help with national exposure for a possible playoff spot, come back with a money-back guarantee?
The Bears have been swimming upstream since the playoff committee began releasing weekly rankings in late October. With one weekend left, No. 6 Baylor may need a lot of help if it's going to climb at least two spots.
One of the things Baylor has control over, however, is how it plays in a critical season-ending game against Kansas State. The Wildcats have the Big 12's best defense in points allowed (20.3 points per game) and rank near the top of the league in several other major categories.
A win over K-State would give the Bears another impressive win. A blowout over K-State could close the gap to the final four even further. How valuable style points and recent wins are in the committee's eyes isn't easily measured, but it's clear they mean something.
Baylor's official stance, based on recent comments made by head coach Art Briles to The New York Times' Tom Spousta, is that it's not worried about anything other than winning. We'll see if that's really the case on Saturday—if Baylor wins at all. A loss would knock the Bears out of the playoff hunt altogether.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Will Missouri Upset Alabama with Its Defensive Front?
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Missouri has made a living off of keeping games close through three quarters and then finding a second wind in the final 15 minutes. It's worked, and the Tigers have won back-to-back SEC East championships. One more win gives Mizzou the SEC crown.
The problem is that Alabama is playing as well as anyone in the country. The Tide are coming an off an Iron Bowl victory in which they scored 55 points and actually made Auburn look gassed.
Missouri's defensive front and pass-rushers are arguably the best in the SEC. Defensive linemen Shane Ray and Markus Golden have combined for 20.5 sacks—more than former Tigers Michael Sam and Kony Ealy did a year ago.
The concern is whether Missouri can stop a powerful, downhill running attack. Though the Tigers beat Arkansas in Week 14, the Razorbacks still averaged 5.2 yards per rush. Alabama as a team averages 5.13 yards per rush.
Alabama is far more explosive on offense with first-year coordinator Lane Kiffin. Any chance Missouri has at winning starts with slowing the Tide running game and keeping the score under control.
Can Florida State Avoid Another Slow Start Against Georgia Tech?
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The Florida State Seminoles have started games slow this season like it's their job, but thus far, that bad habit hasn't resulted in a loss. Does that change against Georgia Tech in the ACC championship?
Maybe. It felt like a slow start was going to cost Florida State against Florida...and against Miami...and against Louisville...and against North Carolina State. There's no doubt this model isn't sustainable, but the reality is no one is sure when that first loss is going to come—if it's going to come.
Georgia Tech's triple-option offense can be tough to prepare for in a week's time, even if both teams are familiar with one another. Defending it takes discipline above all else. So while the focus will continue to be on Seminoles quarterback Jameis Winston, who threw four interceptions against the Gators a week ago, the defense has to come through. The Yellow Jackets have the top offense in the ACC in points scored per game (37.2) and yards per rush (5.98).
Georgia Tech is also third nationally in time of possession (34 minutes). That can be a misleading, if not outright meaningless stat, but it's more relevant when one team is trying to come from behind.
Will Alabama Quarterback Blake Sims Be the X-Factor Against Mizzou?
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The Iron Bowl was a tale of two quarterbacks for Alabama's Blake Sims. The senior had three interceptions against the Tigers, including picks on back-to-back possessions to end the first half and start the second. Quick shots of backup Jake Coker warming up on the sidelines indicated a change may have been coming.
Instead, Sims got his act together and led Alabama to touchdown drives on his next five possessions in a 55-44 win.
Can he be the X-factor for Alabama in the SEC championship against Missouri? As previously mentioned, the Tigers have outstanding edge-rushers who can make life miserable for the opposing quarterback. What has separated Sims from other previous Tide signal-callers is his ability to create plays with his feet.
Sims isn't a running quarterback—his highest rushing total on the year is 54 yards—but he is athletic enough to pick up key first downs and extend plays while keeping his eyes downfield. The matchup between Sims and Missouri's defensive front will be fascinating to watch. While the Tide match up well in the running game, Sims may need to make a few individual plays to win the game.
Will Wisconsin Running Back Melvin Gordon Surpass 200 Yards vs. Ohio State?
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Wisconsin running back Melvin Gordon leads the nation with 188 rushing yards per game. The next closest player, Indiana's Tevin Coleman, is nearly 20 yards behind that average.
On the season, Gordon has had five games of at least 200 yards, including the then-record-breaking 408-yard performance against Nebraska. Very likely, Gordon has to be the X-factor against Ohio State if Wisconsin is going to upend the Buckeyes and win the Big Ten.
Ohio State may have the best defensive line in the country, but the front seven has been gashed on the ground during the month of November. The Buckeyes have allowed at least 200 yards rushing in two of their last three games. Additionally, they've allowed 4.66 yards per rush and 12 touchdowns on the ground.
Not surprisingly, though, those 200-yard rushing games came against Minnesota and Indiana, which rely on David Cobb and Coleman, respectively. Statistically speaking, Gordon is better than both.
Gordon has an outside chance to win the Heisman; at the very least, he's considered the solid No. 2. Coupled with a bad game by Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota, a major performance against Ohio State could also propel Gordon to the top of the Heisman race.
Will Quarterback Cardale Jones Carry Ohio State to a Big Ten Championship?
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Quarterback Cardale Jones is Ohio State's last hope to win the Big Ten championship against Wisconsin and, perhaps, slide up one more spot into the playoff field. As of Tuesday, the Buckeyes ranked fifth in the CFP poll.
The uncertainty around the quarterback situation undoubtedly plays a role in Wisconsin being a 4.5-point favorite, per OddsShark.com. Jones is just 10-of-17 passing for 118 yards and two touchdowns on the season.
From the sound of it, however, head coach Urban Meyer won't play things too conservatively with Jones in the game.
"He hasn't been in this situation [in a game] yet. But he did it in spring [practice], and he did a good job. Remember, he was our backup," Meyer told Austin Ward of ESPN.com.
The fact that the Buckeyes are even in this position is incredible, though. Starting quarterback Braxton Miller was lost before the season even started to a shoulder injury in August. J.T. Barrett, who was asked to lead the offense as a replacement, went beyond expectations and accounted for 45 touchdowns. There's even been talk about Barrett, not Miller, being the starting quarterback in 2015.
However, Barrett sustained a fractured ankle in a Week 14 win over Michigan. If Ohio State can win with Jones, it should go down as one of the best coaching and development jobs by any staff in college football.
Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
