Cowboys Have to Get Their December Act Together

You know that cliche about how important it is to peak at the right time? The Dallas Cowboys have never heard of it. 

It's wonderful, though, because it explains why America's Team—tormented by a habit of winning in September, October and November before falling off cliffs in December—has been MIA more often than not each year in January. 

The numbers are undeniable. 

Dating back to 1996—the year after their last Super Bowl victory—the Cowboys are 31-48 (.392) in December and January and 123-98 (.557) the rest of the year. More recently, since Tony Romo took over at quarterback in 2006, they've gone 16-21 (.432) in December and January and 64-39 (.621) the rest of the year. 

A total of 26 percent of the games they've played since '06 have come in December or January, but only 20 percent of their wins have come in those months. 

On a side note, they're 2-1 in the regular-season in January in the Romo era, and 3-4 in the post-Super Bowl era. Isolate December and only look at Romo starts and you get an even uglier mark of 12-17 (.414). 

But while the hordes of fans/haters who buy into lazy narratives would love to think that this is a Romo thing, it's not. It's a Cowboys thing. It's a systemic problem infecting the entire franchise. 

As ESPN.com's Todd Archer points out, the Cowboys have on two occasions entered December with a winning record since Jason Garrett took over as head coach in 2010. They were 7-4 in 2011 before dropping four of their last five games and they were 7-5 in 2013 before losing three of their last four. 

But in neither case did Romo struggle. In fact, dating back to 2009, he's been one of the best December quarterbacks in the league. 

Quarterback	Comp.%	TD	INT	YPA	Rating
1. Aaron Rodgers	63.72	39	8	8.41	107.3
2. Peyton Manning	67.91	48	16	7.81	105.2
3. Drew Brees	70.09	53	17	7.66	104.4
4. Tony Romo	65.39	34	8	7.91	104.1
5. Russell Wilson	63.27	16	5	8.42	103.1
6. Philip Rivers	65.11	41	12	7.84	101.7

Overall during that stretch, the Cowboys have put up a half-decent December/January record of 11-13, but three of those wins and two of the losses came when Romo was injured during the home stretch of a spoiled 2010 season. All that really matters is they've taken clear steps backward in the final month of three of their last four seasons with a healthy Romo. 

So what's been the problem? 

A closer look at the numbers, excluding that irrelevant 2010 season: 

Metric	Sept.-Nov.	Dec./Jan.
Points/game	24.5	23.6
Turnovers/game	1.6	1.1
Points allowed/game	21.8	24.1
Takeaways/game	1.6	0.9

This appears to be about the defense more than the offense. As you can see, in December and January, the Cowboys have actually been turning it over less often and have averaged just about as many points per game. But they're taking it away significantly less often and are giving up 2.3 more points per game. 

That jibes with a theory from Jimmy Kempski of Philly Voice, who suggested earlier this week that the Cowboys have struggled late in the season because they've "lacked quality depth." It's clear that if talent or depth have been lacking in recent seasons, it's been on the defensive side of the ball. 

Your deficiencies become more difficult to mask in December, which is particularly alarming in this case because Rod Marinelli's unit is coming off two of its worst performances of the year. In the last two weeks, they've surrendered 61 points, 53 first downs and 881 total yards.

Time frame	PPG	1st downs	Yards	Takeaways
First 10 games	21.2	18.3	348.8	1.7
Last 2 games	30.5	26.5	440.5	1.0

But none of this means Dallas is doomed. Wide receiver Dez Bryant noted this week—per Archer—that "the feeling is a lot different" this year. And while that's a party line, it might also have some truth to it. 

In previous years, the Cowboys have been a pass-first team. Each year between 2008 and 2013, they threw on at least 57 percent of their offensive plays, which always ranked above the league average. And dating back to 2009, only the Arizona Cardinals ran the ball fewer times than Dallas. 

More perspective from Rick Gosselin of the Dallas Morning News: 

"

The Jimmy Johnson Cowboys ran the ball in December in carving a place in history as the NFL’s team of the 1990s. From 1992-95, when the Cowboys appeared in four NFC title games and won three Super Bowls, they ran the ball almost 52 percent of the time in the month of December.

The Jason Garrett Cowboys have run the ball only 41 percent of the time in the final month of the season in his four seasons.

"

That's never ideal in wintry conditions. 

The Cowboys play the Chicago Bears in Chicago Thursday night and the Philadelphia Eagles in Philly in Week 15. They're also outdoors in winter weather when they play the Washington Redskins on the road in Week 17. Last year against the Bears, in one of the coldest games in franchise history, they were dominated in a 45-28 loss. They also lost at Washington in sub-40 degree weather in season finales in 2007 and 2012. 

In games like those, you have to establish the run. 

But the thing is, Dallas' offense has changed under new play-caller Scott Linehan. With running back DeMarco Murray emerging as their bell cow, the Cowboys are one of only three teams that have run the ball more than 48 percent of the time this season. 

Consider, too, that this team is a lot healthier this year than it has been in previous seasons.

They've become used to life without linebacker Sean Lee and cornerback Morris Claiborne, and they've gotten more from former Pro Bowl defensive linemen Henry Melton and Anthony Spencer as the season has worn on. Linebackers Rolando McClain and Bruce Carter are active after missing time, as is rookie second-round pick Demarcus Lawrence. And talented defensive tackle Josh Brent looks as though he's ready to contribute. 

The key now could be to avoid becoming distracted by past December failures. Veteran tight end Jason Witten sheds some light on that, via Bleacher Report contributor Clarence Hill: 

"

When you finish the years the way we have, it causes you to reflect. If you go back at different points in those games in December, we didn’t execute very well. There is no secret to that. Other teams did, and they played well and made those plays, and we didn’t. Until you change it (the December woes) are going to continue to happen. That’s why I think we’re all anxious to change the outcome of it.

"

They don't have a choice but to change it now. If they slip up again this month, they'll be looking at a fifth straight year outside of the playoffs. After a 6-1 start, that can't happen. 

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFC East for Bleacher Report since 2012.

Follow @Brad_Gagnon