Pac-12 Championship 2014: Odds and Storylines for Arizona vs. Oregon Clash

It's fitting that the Pac-12 Championship would come down to Arizona and Oregon. The Ducks have been one of the best teams in the country all year, but the lone blemish on their resume in 2014 was a 31-24 loss at home to the Wildcats on October 2. 

There's a lot more on the line than just a conference championship. Oregon is looking to secure its spot in the College Football Playoff, currently ranked second by the selection committee. Arizona, which is currently ranked seventh, has an outside shot to sneak in with a win but a lot of things would have to go right. 

You can't pack more drama into a 60-minute Pac-12 game than what will be on display at Levi's Stadium on Friday night. To properly whet the appetite before kickoff, here are the latest odds and key storylines to watch when Arizona and Oregon take the field. 

Spread	Over/Under
Oregon (-14)	73.5

How Has Oregon's Offense Improved?

Even though a lot of teams would be happy to score 24 points against an opponent, that's not up to Oregon standards. In fact, that was the Ducks' lowest point total in a game this season. The next closest was 38 against Washington State the previous week.

For the season, Mark Helfrich's team has averaged 45.9 points and 539.5 yards per game. Arizona contained Marcus Mariota as much as anyone has this season, limiting him to 277 total yards (one yard rushing) and two touchdowns.

There are some teams that have an opponent's number. While Stanford used to be that team for Oregon, it's turned into Arizona over the last two years. Remember, it was Arizona that ended Oregon's title hopes last November with a 42-16 victory.  

According to Andrew Greif of The Oregonian, Helfrich is nearly perfect against everyone else since taking over for Chip Kelly last year:

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Mark Helfrich is 22-1 against every other team but Arizona in his two-year tenure, with the Wildcats earning two victories in a row against the Ducks. The 'Cats can throw, run and defend the ball well and have the speed on the edges that few possess but is required for any team with Duck upset hopes. 

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The biggest difference this time around is the health of Oregon's offensive line. Arizona was all over Mariota in that October game, sacking the Heisman contender seven times. 

Since that day, per Paul Myerberg of USA Today, Mariota has only been sacked 14 times in the last seven games. Ducks offensive line coach Steve Greatwood told Myerberg that getting back to simple fundamentals was the key:

"It's something that as a coach you're always kind of trying to decide where to spend your time," Greatwood said. "But if you can't execute fundamentally, then all the Xs and the Os aren't going to help you."

If Arizona is unable to attack Mariota again, it will have to outscore the Ducks to win. It's not an impossible task, as the Wildcats average 36.7 points per game and have scored 42 points in each of their last two games against Utah and Arizona State. 

The difference between now and that October meeting is in the trenches. Oregon looks better and more confident up front, which allows everything else to fall in place. Mariota is as reliable as any quarterback in the country, with 47 total touchdowns and two interceptions. 

Running back Royce Freeman has at least 98 yards in every game and 11 rushing touchdowns since the loss. There are so many ways that Oregon can attack Arizona's defense, including seven receivers with at least 10 receptions and 14.1 yards per reception, that a shootout doesn't seem like a viable way to pull off an upset. 

Arizona's Success Is All About The Run

If you just examine the raw numbers from Arizona's victory over Oregon earlier this season, the Wildcats were masterful. In addition to the seven sacks by the defense, they forced two turnovers and limited the Ducks to 3.1 yards per carry. 

As for the offense, it put up 495 yards, which is certainly something to focus on. However, despite running for 208 yards, the Wildcats averaged just 3.8 yards per carry. Quarterback Anu Solomon was the main culprit, being credited with zero rushing yards on 12 carries. 

Arizona dictated the pace of that game with 55 carries, which helped limit the Ducks to 26:28 time of possession. The Wildcats were down 7-3 at halftime of their October win before getting three rushing touchdowns in the second half. 

Last year, it was a similar story. Ka'Deem Carey had 208 rushing yards, four touchdowns and Arizona controlled the ball for 35 minutes, 29 seconds. 

Going back even further, as Lindsay Schnell of Sports Illustrated did, Oregon hasn't been able to contain Arizona's running game over the last two years, nor has it been able to get loose in the two losses:

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In 2013, Oregon averaged 565 yards of offense per game, with 273.5 of those coming on the ground. This season, those numbers are 539.5 total yards per game, bolstered by 232 rushing yards. Yet in both years, Arizona has beaten Oregon at its own game, gaining big yardage on the ground (308 yards in 2013, 208 yards in 2014) on its way to wins. The Wildcats have also held Oregon’s runners in check, as the Ducks totaled just 198 rushing yards in 2013, and 144 in 2014.

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Teams have figured out that the best way to beat Oregon is by keeping the offense off the field. It's much easier said than done, otherwise everyone would be able to do it. In 2012 and 2013, Stanford had that formula down by holding the ball for a total of 79:39 in the two wins. 

Arizona has taken the Cardinal formula and run with it. If that's going to continue for the third time, the Wildcats have to rely on their ground game. Fortunately, it's a good one with Nick Wilson averaging 6.3 yards per carry and 15 touchdowns. 

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