College Football Playoff 2014: Breaking Down New Format, Bowl Predictions, More
The inaugural College Football Playoff isn't a perfect format for determining a national champion, but it's a whole heck of a lot better than the old way.
Ideally, the top 16 teams would get an opportunity to play for a national championship. Perhaps automatic bids would go to 12 conference champions—yes, even some smaller schools—and then four wild-card slots to ensure the teams that had the best regular seasons were rewarded.
That's a fantasy that may or may not come true in the future. As of now, here's a breakdown of how the top four teams will determine the next national champion.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Team Selection Process
Per CollegeFootballPlayoff.com, each of the 13 committee members creates a list of the 25 teams that they regard as the best in the nation. Initially, those teams are unranked and grouped as the 25 best.
If a team is listed three or more times, it remains under consideration. From there, each member lists the six best teams. The six teams that receive the most votes will make up the pool for the first ranking step.
In that step, each member ranks those six teams from one to six. The top team in each member's list receives one point, the second team gets two points and so on.
The members' rankings are added together and the three teams with the fewest amount of points are the top three seeds. The remaining three teams are grouped together for the next step of the ranking process.
Each member will then again list the six best remaining teams without ranking them. The three teams that receive the most votes will then be added to the three that were held over. That step will be repeated until all 25 teams have been seeded.
For the sake of the CFP, only the top four are relevant. Thus, the team receiving the most votes after the members reclassify will become the fourth seed. That rather jumbled process could partially explain why the Florida State Seminoles, the undefeated, defending national champions, fell beneath the TCU Horned Frogs in the latest CFP standings.
The lack of respect for the Noles shined through loud and clear with their demotion. Now that we know how the teams will be picked, here's my prediction for the four teams that will move into the CFP.
| Sugar | 1. Alabama | 4. Baylor |
| Rose | 2. Oregon | 3. Florida State |
Why Alabama?
This is pretty simple.
The Alabama Crimson Tide are currently No. 1 and are generally regarded as the best team in the country. Because I don't anticipate them losing to the Missouri Tigers in the SEC Championship game, there's no reason to think they will slip out of the top spot—let alone the top four.
Why Oregon?
The Oregon Ducks' situation is similar to Bama's. As a one-loss team currently sitting second in the CFP standings, the Ducks would need to lose to the Arizona Wildcats in the Pac-12 title game to slip.
Here's the difference: the Wildcats already beat Oregon once this season. The 31-24 defeat is Oregon's only blemish, and it came at home where the Ducks are traditionally tough.
Needless to say, it appears Oregon has a tougher game on its hands than Bama, but Marcus Mariota and Co. will relish the opportunity to avenge the only defeat of 2014. I believe in Mariota's leadership and the Ducks' improvement on defense.
In the last four games, Oregon is only allowing 18 points per game. The defense and Mariota will get it done and march the Ducks into the CFP as a No. 2 seed.
Why Florida State?
This is a question that really shouldn't require an explanation. If the defending national champions with the same quarterback, head coach and various other key contributors from 2013 go unbeaten, their inclusion in the CFP should be academic.
For whatever reason, that doesn't appear to be the case.
Truth be told, Florida State hasn't really played well this season. Jameis Winston has struggled to protect the ball at times, but all this team has done is win.
Unless No. 11 Georgia Tech can do what the last 28 opponents couldn't, Florida State should get the No. 3 seed in the final CFP standings.
Why Baylor?
The Baylor Bears, TCU and Ohio State Buckeyes all have a shot at grabbing the fourth spot in the CFP. but I'm tabbing Art Briles' team as the squad that will face Alabama.
The Bears won in unconvincing fashion over TCU earlier in the season. The score was 61-58, and most seem to believe the Horned Frogs gave the game away. Whether that's the consensus thought or not, the fact is: Baylor won.
Since both teams have one loss, that should give Baylor the edge. However, that hasn't been the case. TCU is currently ranked ahead of Baylor despite the head-to-head loss.
I predict that will change on Saturday when Baylor defeats the No. 12 Kansas State Wildcats at home. Sure, TCU will likely defeat the lowly Iowa State Cyclones as well, but Baylor's win over a ranked opponent should be more impressive.
That should be enough to make Baylor's win over TCU carry the appropriate weight.
The Buckeyes have to tangle with the No. 14 Wisconsin Badgers on Saturday. Were the Bucks healthy at quarterback, they would likely be the pick here. However, with Cardale Jones pressed into action to replace the injured J.T. Barrett, Ohio State won't have an offense that is effective enough to keep pace with the physical Badgers running game.
Quite simply, Ohio State will lose and fall out of contention for the final CFP spot.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
