Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Green Bay Packers will look to avoid a letdown following a big win last week when they host the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football.

The Packers are coming off a 26-21 victory against the New England Patriots in a battle of two of the NFL’s best teams and covered the spread for the seventh time in nine games.

The Falcons are 4-0 against the spread as double-digit dogs and this is just third time since 2002 they have gotten this many points.

Point spread: Packers opened as 10.5-point favorites but the number was climbing towards 14 midweek; the total was 56 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 38.2-25.9 Packers

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

The Falcons covered three road games in the final month last season, including a 22-21 loss at Lambeau Field as 3.5-point underdogs. Granted, Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers was not playing in that game, but they also visited the San Francisco 49ers and covered a 14-point spread two weeks later in a 34-24 loss on Monday Night Football.

Unlike last year, though, Atlanta still has a lot to play for this season with the NFC South title up for grabs. The Falcons remain tied with the New Orleans Saints for the division lead at 5-7 and play them on the road in two weeks.

Regardless of whether they win or lose this game, they need to continue playing their best at this time of year.

Why the Packers can cover the spread

The Packers have gone 5-0 against the spread in their last five home games, winning them by an average of 26.4 points. They are coming off a huge home win over the Patriots and will face an Atlanta team that is not nearly as good defensively.

The Falcons rank dead last in pass defense, surrendering 285 yards per game through the air, and they will be facing arguably the best quarterback in the NFL right now in Rodgers. Last week, Atlanta did not have to worry about Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald and was able to shut down the Cards offense en route to a 29-18 win as a 1.5-point home favorite.

There will be much more to be concerned with this week at Lambeau, as the Falcons are just 2-8 ATS in their past 10 as road dogs.

Smart pick

While Green Bay is due for a less-than-stellar effort at home after crushing just about every opponent there this season, Atlanta is not the team to cover in this spot.

The Falcons have been fortunate to win three of their last four games, with two of them coming against NFC South teams they are familiar with in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers, who also have a combined five wins between them.

Beating the Packers on the road—or even covering the spread—is a completely different situation, and one the team has failed with repeatedly in the past—especially on the road, outdoors, in December.

Green Bay is just playing too well and should have no problem winning this game by at least two touchdowns for its sixth straight home cover.

Betting trends

• Atlanta is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games when playing Green Bay.
• Green Bay is 8-1 straight up in its last nine games.

All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.