Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Cincinnati Bengals will be playing their first home game in a month when they host the Pittsburgh Steelers in a key AFC North matchup on Sunday. The Bengals have won their last three games—all on the road—since suffering a disappointing 24-3 loss to the Cleveland Browns as six-point favorites in their last home game back in Week 10.

Point spread: The Bengals opened as four-point favorites. The total was 47 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 28.0-23.3 Steelers

Why the Steelers can cover the spread

The Steelers know that they will need to beat Cincinnati in order to win the division. They play the Bengals twice in the last four weeks of the regular season but can make up some ground instantly with a victory at Paul Brown Stadium.

Pittsburgh has won 11 of the last 15 meetings with Cincinnati, both straight up and against the spread, going 6-2 in the past eight games between the teams. Defensively, the team must play better and will face a challenge with defensive end Brett Keisel going on IR with a torn triceps.

But Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin will use the "next man up" approach, which could end up paying dividends with rookie Stephon Tuitt getting a chance for more snaps.

Why the Bengals can cover the spread

The Bengals forgot all about their last home game against a divisional foe by winning three in a row on the road. They return to Paul Brown Stadium in the AFC North driver’s seat.

They have been a strong home team there, which makes their performance against the Browns all the more puzzling. Before that loss, Cincinnati had gone 9-2-1 ATS in its previous 12 games as a home favorite, including a 20-10 victory against Pittsburgh early in the 2013 season.

The Bengals face three divisional opponents in their last four games and own a 5-1 mark both SU and ATS in their past six at home against AFC North teams. That bodes well here against the Steelers.

Smart Pick

Cincinnati’s defense will be the difference in this game against Pittsburgh, and all bettors need to do is look at a recent common opponent. The Bengals went into the Superdome and shut down the Saints in a 27-10 win there three weeks ago, pulling off the upset as 7.5-point underdogs.

That same New Orleans team had its way offensively with the Steelers on the road last week in a 35-32 victory as a four-point underdog. Pittsburgh has had trouble stopping teams lately, giving up an average of 27 points per game over its last seven despite going 4-3 during that stretch.

Cincinnati can score and limit the Steelers, which is why the spread should be higher. Take the Bengals to cover.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh is 2-4 ATS in its last six games on the road.
• The total has gone under in four of Cincinnati's last five games when playing Pittsburgh.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.