College Football Week 15: Picking the Top 25 Games Against the Spread
It all comes down to this. The last week of the first year of the College Football Playoff is upon us, and when it's done we'll have our first-ever four-team bracket.
According to the handicappers, though, this weekend is not brimming with intrigue. Of the five conference championship games that include at least one ranked team, three have spreads of more than two touchdowns, and one of the games that don't features a third-string quarterback making the first start of his career.
But that doesn't mean we can't find some value. I am on a (uncharacteristic) hot streak the past two weeks, during which I have gone 23-11 against the spread. I'm not ready to let that die.
Do I love my Week 15 picks? No. Not compared with the previous two weekends'. But I wouldn't say I don't love them either.
Sound off below and let me know what you think.
No. 7 Arizona vs. No. 2 Oregon
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The Line: Oregon (-14.5)
Arizona has won its past two games against Oregon, and both times Oregon has used the same excuse: injuries.
Last year Marcus Mariota played on a sprained ACL, which ostensibly hindered his performance, and this year left tackle Jake Fisher was out of the lineup. Had Mariota and/or Fisher been healthy, Ducks fans will tell you, this team would have won both games.
Typically, I would disagree with that logic. Having two wins in two tries means something. Arizona head coach Rich Rodriguez knows how to move the ball against Oregon, and, more importantly, defensive coordinator Jeff Casteel knows how to slow Oregon's offense down.
In this case, however, I defer to the advanced numbers, if only because the discrepancy is so glaring. Oregon ranks No. 2 on the F/+ ratings at Football Outsiders, trailing only Alabama. Arizona ranks No. 28 by the same metric, trailing teams like Stanford and Miami.
The third time was the charm when the Ducks played Stanford in November. Expect that to be the case again.
The Pick: Oregon (-14.5)
Iowa State at No. 3 TCU
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The Line: TCU (-34)
TCU has been a buzz saw at home this season.
The Horned Frogs are 6-0 in Forth Worth with three wins over actively ranked teams (Minnesota, Oklahoma, Kansas State) and blowouts over Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. Throwing out the Samford game, they have beaten their power-conference opponents by an average score of 46-19 in Amon G. Carter Stadium.
Iowa State isn't as bad as its record (2-9) but isn't too far off. More to the point, it has nothing but pride to play for. And pride flies out the window once one loses by 20 points at Kansas. The only thing the Cyclones have to play for has been gone since November 8.
Five touchdowns sounds about right.
The Pick: TCU (-34)
Oklahoma State at No. 20 Oklahoma
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The Line: Oklahoma (-20)
Oklahoma State needs this win to make a bowl game for the ninth consecutive season. Oklahoma needs this win to...keep Oklahoma State out of a bowl game for the first time in nine seasons.
Don't think that doesn't matter.
The F/+ ratings are high on the Sooners, and it's not hard to see why. All three of their losses came against teams in the CFP Top 10, and two (at TCU and vs. Kansas State) came by four points or less.
The Cowboys have been exactly as bad as their record (5-6), if not worse. The F/+ ratings have them all the way down at No. 75, looking up at such powerhouses as Temple, Northwestern, Arkansas State, and a UAB team that doesn't even exist anymore.
I think I'll lay those points.
The Pick: Oklahoma (-20)
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No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 16 Missouri
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The Line: Alabama (-14.5)
Alabama's defense is not the impregnable defense of years past. It has an obvious, easy-to-identify weak point: its cornerbacks. Teams with great receivers can make plays down the field.
In that regard, 2013 Missouri would have been a perfect matchup for 2014 Alabama. Dorial Green-Beckham and L'Damian Washington are precisely what the Tide can't cover: big, fast, physical receivers with the skills to beat man coverage. D'haquille Williams and Sammie Coates combined for 327 receiving yards in last week's Iron Bowl.
2014 Missouri, on the other hand, does not have the weapons to exploit Alabama's weakness. DGB and Washington are goners, and the passing game has regressed to No. 98 in the country in yards per attempt (6.3). The Tigers rely on winning the line of scrimmage and running the football to score points.
Alabama never loses the line of scrimmage. And it never lets up rushing yards. This honestly might be a shutout.
The Pick: Alabama (-14.5)
No. 9 Kansas State at No. 6 Baylor
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The Line: N/A
Most handicapping outposts do not have a line for this game. Baylor quarterback Bryce Petty suffered a concussion last week against Texas Tech, and his status is still uncertain.
Reading the tea leaves, though, it sounds like Petty will play. "He was here yesterday and feeling pretty good," head coach Art Briles said Monday, per Max Olson of ESPN.com.
Two days later, Stewart Mandel of FoxSports.com reported that Petty was back on the practice field.
But how's this for a hot take? Even if Petty plays, and even if the line drops under a touchdown, my prediction will stay the same.
Give me Kansas State straight up.
The most important things for a defense to do against Baylor are maintain discipline and avoid coverage breakdowns. No defense in the country is more disciplined than Kansas State's, and no coach is better-equipped to match wits with Briles than Bill Snyder.
Odds Shark cites the opening line as Baylor being a nine-point favorite, which is what I'll use to score myself for the time being. But, for posterity, I am picking the Wildcats to win straight up.
That should make this easier.
The Pick: Kansas State (+9)
No. 4 Florida State vs. No. 11 Georgia Tech
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The Line: Florida State (-4)
Is this the week Florida State goes down?
I am running out of chutzpah to predict that.
I thought Louisville could beat the Seminoles. I thought Miami could beat the Seminoles. I even thought Boston College and Florida could beat the Seminoles.
Nobody has beaten the Seminoles.
But there has been a silver lining. Even though FSU won all four of those games, it only covered two (at Louisville and Miami). It has not been very good against the spread, and I expect that to continue against a Georgia Tech team that, per the F/+ ratings, has the No. 2 offense in the country. Only Oregon has been better.
Florida State on a last-second field goal.
The Pick: Georgia Tech (+3)
No. 13 Wisconsin vs. No. 5 Ohio State
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The Line: Wisconsin (-4)
Cardale Jones "ain't come to play SCHOOL." And Saturday night in Indianapolis, he ain't being asked to.
He's being asked to play FOOTBALL.
Jones replaces freshman quarterback J.T. Barrett, who fractured his ankle against Michigan, and is the reason for this curious line. The Buckeyes are four-point underdogs against a Wisconsin team that lost to Northwestern and struggled to beat Iowa and Minnesota the past two weeks.
That, to me, seems like a bit of an over-adjustment. The history of backup quarterbacks under Urban Meyer has been peachy, starting last year with Kenny Guiton and extending this year to Barrett, who played at a Heisman level after taking over for Braxton Miller.
Ohio State has a front seven that can stop—or at least contain—Melvin Gordon and an offense that can still run the football.
Watch out for Jalin Marshall playing Wildcat.
The Pick: Ohio State (+4)
Fresno State at No. 22 Boise State
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The Line: Boise State (-21)
Boise State has been three touchdowns better than Fresno State this season. The Broncos are 10-2 and threatening to make a New Year's Day bowl. The Bulldogs are 6-6 and only playing this game because the Mountain West - West was epically mediocre.
However, Fresno State hung tough with the Broncos when it played on the blue turf this season, losing 37-27. It was outgained by 179 yards, but the score was tied after three quarters. The Bulldogs also ended the season on a refreshing three-game winning streak.
In a week devoid of underdogs I feel good about, Fresno State looks like a worthwhile side. These teams know each other well—cliche, I know, but it matters—and always seem to play close games.
Boise State by "only" two touchdowns.
The Pick: Fresno State (+21)
Last Week: 11-7-0 (.611)
For the Season: 46-35-0 (.568)
All spreads courtesy of Odds Shark.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
